ETH: Long on bullish breakout from consolidation resist. (1,5R)
I've set the stop limit order for that trade according to the long entry in the chart.
Background:
I'm generally bearish and I want the price to convince me that we have a reversal. Otherwise I'll just trail my setup down until there is a real reversal.
Hypothesis:
To have a highly probable successful trade (please tell me if there is a better wording for that) I want to trade a bullish breakout from the "Highest high of the consolidation" (horizontal red line). I expect that to be a trigger for a reversal.
To reduce the risk, other resistances will have to be crossed:
o The next resistance within the consolidation
o ETH is already at the upper Bollinger Band . If the trade happens soon it will have quite a BB resistance.
o Ichimoku has had a kijun sen cross already which will have a bigger spread by then
Target:
My target is just below the last major drop in price after the previous consolidation.
Stop loss:
o below the order block that led to a sharp move down and
o below the orange horizontal "next resistance within the consolidation) that has then turned to support by then.
Position size:
The full 20% of my portfolio which I planned for ETH.
Advantage:
I expect the breakout from the consolidation to be significant.
Disadvantage:
o The entry is almost 12% away from the current price. I will not catch this profit if ETH rallies. But if I would try to enter earlier I might just can some volatility within the consolidation and the price might drop.
o The stop loss is 9% from the entry. I might move it above the horizontal yellow R/S and below the order block as price develops.
Disclaimer:
I'm a bloody beginner learning trading since september and I'm only publishing that to make use of the teddy bear effect. I expect to be more aware and conscious about what I'm doing by making it public and to also motivate me more to review my trades correctly. This is why it is obviously not financial advice.
Your feedback is welcome!:
Please tell me your opinions as I'm looking forward to other views on my trade idea in the comments and please click thumbs up if you like it.
Background:
I'm generally bearish and I want the price to convince me that we have a reversal. Otherwise I'll just trail my setup down until there is a real reversal.
Hypothesis:
To have a highly probable successful trade (please tell me if there is a better wording for that) I want to trade a bullish breakout from the "Highest high of the consolidation" (horizontal red line). I expect that to be a trigger for a reversal.
To reduce the risk, other resistances will have to be crossed:
o The next resistance within the consolidation
o ETH is already at the upper Bollinger Band . If the trade happens soon it will have quite a BB resistance.
o Ichimoku has had a kijun sen cross already which will have a bigger spread by then
Target:
My target is just below the last major drop in price after the previous consolidation.
Stop loss:
o below the order block that led to a sharp move down and
o below the orange horizontal "next resistance within the consolidation) that has then turned to support by then.
Position size:
The full 20% of my portfolio which I planned for ETH.
Advantage:
I expect the breakout from the consolidation to be significant.
Disadvantage:
o The entry is almost 12% away from the current price. I will not catch this profit if ETH rallies. But if I would try to enter earlier I might just can some volatility within the consolidation and the price might drop.
o The stop loss is 9% from the entry. I might move it above the horizontal yellow R/S and below the order block as price develops.
Disclaimer:
I'm a bloody beginner learning trading since september and I'm only publishing that to make use of the teddy bear effect. I expect to be more aware and conscious about what I'm doing by making it public and to also motivate me more to review my trades correctly. This is why it is obviously not financial advice.
Your feedback is welcome!:
Please tell me your opinions as I'm looking forward to other views on my trade idea in the comments and please click thumbs up if you like it.