Update from previous idea:
okay well that didn't go to plan, hope people had a tight stop on support and didn't lose too much money (I didn't). so I still have a trade open, I am buying at these levels, until we see a break of my thin white line at the bottom of the pattern here, it is risky but getting entries on the way down allows me to not depend on guessing where the exact bottom is gonna be. so we do have support here keep in mind this is the big time frame so the support levels are still quite far away.
so a few things to be mentioned here. first support level in 3833, thick white line, then fall into the 0.5 which has seen many tests on this levels I would love for that to be the lowest point but if we see price break down then there is a higher possibility we break it.
so the 3700 level has got to hold really. as you can see every time the 0.5 has been tested it has wicked below failing to hold a candle below that level.
we also have to look at see why this happened, so look at the red sloping trend line I have drawn in red, a key noticeable point that we are going to see a turn down is three hits to the high, and more importantly all lower than the last, this is something we can all take away from this kind of pattern playing out and next time can spot things like this.
best case - support levels hold perfectly
worst case - we break looking to catch the liquidity from the big wick around the 0.414/382 fib
okay well that didn't go to plan, hope people had a tight stop on support and didn't lose too much money (I didn't). so I still have a trade open, I am buying at these levels, until we see a break of my thin white line at the bottom of the pattern here, it is risky but getting entries on the way down allows me to not depend on guessing where the exact bottom is gonna be. so we do have support here keep in mind this is the big time frame so the support levels are still quite far away.
so a few things to be mentioned here. first support level in 3833, thick white line, then fall into the 0.5 which has seen many tests on this levels I would love for that to be the lowest point but if we see price break down then there is a higher possibility we break it.
so the 3700 level has got to hold really. as you can see every time the 0.5 has been tested it has wicked below failing to hold a candle below that level.
we also have to look at see why this happened, so look at the red sloping trend line I have drawn in red, a key noticeable point that we are going to see a turn down is three hits to the high, and more importantly all lower than the last, this is something we can all take away from this kind of pattern playing out and next time can spot things like this.
best case - support levels hold perfectly
worst case - we break looking to catch the liquidity from the big wick around the 0.414/382 fib
