ETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% ETH, 60% Cash.
*Big day for f**kery. Equities, Cryptos, US Treasuries, Precious Metals are all down while VIX, DXY, Commodities (aside from Precious Metals) are up. July PCE price index decreased by -0.1% from July, and was 6.3% higher than in July of 2021 (compared to 6.8% higher last month); both of these numbers reflect the effects of the White House tapping into SPR in July. The 8th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in today at +1.6% compared to +1.4% on 08/24/22. The UofM survey reported August consumer sentiment at 58.2 (compared to 51.5 in July) and a nearly 60% surge in year-ahead economic expectations from lows last seen in 2008-2010. Even though the economic data today was largely positive, it wasn't enough for Fed Chair Pow. He kept the hawkish rhetoric by emphasizing today at Jackson Hole that the Fed will be maintaining "restrictive monetary policy" until Core PCE drops meaningfully closer to their 2% target and that they won't hesitate to raise rates by another 75bps in September. To some bull's delight, he made mention that the Fed would have to eventually slow down rate hikes as the inflation situation improves (logically). The Merge is still scheduled for launch on Ethereum mainnet 09/15/22. Key Upcoming Dates: August Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 08/30; 9th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/01; August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02.*
Price was rejected by $1560 minor resistance and is currently on the verge of breaking below the uptrend line from 06/18/22 (~$1625) as it tests the 50 MA (~$1585) as support. Volume is High and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers in the past few sessions but is on track to favor sellers in today's session if it closes in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1914, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 41 as it approaches a retest of the descending trendline from 07/17/22 at ~39 (this would likely coincide with a retest of 37 support). Stochastic crossed over bearish today after being rejected by 18 resistance and is currently trending down at 15; the next support is max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -6 after a failed initial trough formation; the next support (minor) is at -46. ADX is currently trending sideways at 23 as Price is deciding on whether or not to break down out of the uptrend from 06/18/22, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here off of the 50 MA and reclaim the uptrend line from 06/18/22 as support at $~1640, it will then have to break above $1711 minor resistance in order to retest $1941 resistance. However, if Price breaks down below the 50 MA, the next likely target is a retest of $1427 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1711.
*Big day for f**kery. Equities, Cryptos, US Treasuries, Precious Metals are all down while VIX, DXY, Commodities (aside from Precious Metals) are up. July PCE price index decreased by -0.1% from July, and was 6.3% higher than in July of 2021 (compared to 6.8% higher last month); both of these numbers reflect the effects of the White House tapping into SPR in July. The 8th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in today at +1.6% compared to +1.4% on 08/24/22. The UofM survey reported August consumer sentiment at 58.2 (compared to 51.5 in July) and a nearly 60% surge in year-ahead economic expectations from lows last seen in 2008-2010. Even though the economic data today was largely positive, it wasn't enough for Fed Chair Pow. He kept the hawkish rhetoric by emphasizing today at Jackson Hole that the Fed will be maintaining "restrictive monetary policy" until Core PCE drops meaningfully closer to their 2% target and that they won't hesitate to raise rates by another 75bps in September. To some bull's delight, he made mention that the Fed would have to eventually slow down rate hikes as the inflation situation improves (logically). The Merge is still scheduled for launch on Ethereum mainnet 09/15/22. Key Upcoming Dates: August Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 08/30; 9th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/01; August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02.*
Price was rejected by $1560 minor resistance and is currently on the verge of breaking below the uptrend line from 06/18/22 (~$1625) as it tests the 50 MA (~$1585) as support. Volume is High and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers in the past few sessions but is on track to favor sellers in today's session if it closes in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1914, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 41 as it approaches a retest of the descending trendline from 07/17/22 at ~39 (this would likely coincide with a retest of 37 support). Stochastic crossed over bearish today after being rejected by 18 resistance and is currently trending down at 15; the next support is max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -6 after a failed initial trough formation; the next support (minor) is at -46. ADX is currently trending sideways at 23 as Price is deciding on whether or not to break down out of the uptrend from 06/18/22, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here off of the 50 MA and reclaim the uptrend line from 06/18/22 as support at $~1640, it will then have to break above $1711 minor resistance in order to retest $1941 resistance. However, if Price breaks down below the 50 MA, the next likely target is a retest of $1427 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1711.