ETH May fall to $500

Why I believe ETH may fall to $500:

- In the last bear market, ETH fell almost 95%
- If we apply 95% to the all time high, this takes us to roughly under $300
- I don't think it will fall lower than $500 but you never know
- Multiple reasons why this will happen, we need to look at the fundamentals of ETH first
- ETH has unlimited supply, it is an inflationary token. There will always be more supply than demand for ETH
- More and more ETH is mined every single day
- ETH is slow, has lots of network issues
- ETH transaction fees are very high an unpredictable
- You may have to pay anywhere from $30 to $400 just to do a simple 'staking/unstaking' transaction on ETH mainnet dexes
- Time and time again these fees have gotten out of hand, at times the gas fees will come down but majority of the time they are too high
- There are tons of other blockchains like AVAX, BNB, FTM, MATIC, KDA and so on that are much faster and cheaper than ETH. Majority of these will charge you anywhere from a couple cents to $1 in fees, compared to ETH's $30-$400 fees.
- Some of these blockchains are going to have no fees like KDA
- There is tons of competition for ETH and while other blockchains are improving, ETH is getting worse
- Why would an average user invest in ETH based asset? You will end up paying insane fees just to stake, unstake, provide lp and everything else on dex. When the user can just do all of that on a different blockchain while spending a couple cents
- Lots of devs are leaving ETH and deploying their dapps to other blockchains like BNB, AVAX, MATIC and so forth
- Devs know that users are sick of paying high fees. Low fees = more users = devs happy
- New devs are building their dapps on other blockchains while not even bothering to offer ETH based multichain solution
- Some dapps offer multichain functionality. If they do, would you choose ETH or BNB? If you have $1000 to invest and stake in a project that is on both ETH and BNB blockchain, wouldn't you rather choose the BNB option where you will invest $999+ and pay only maybe less than $1 in fees. Or invest $900 and pay $100 in confirmation, approval, swapping and minting fees?
- TVL of ETH has significantly fallen ever since these other blockchains came to life
- ETH at one point had over 95% dominance in TVL across all chains, it is now fallen down to 64%!!!
- ETH had fallen to 55% before the LUNA fiasco. ETH went up only because LUNA is done.
- The TVL will continue to fall as we head deeper into bear market and people move their assets into other cheaper chains
- For comparison, BSC owns 7% of TVL across all chains, AVAX 6%, and others 6.5%
- It is also much easier for miners to mine other coins like FLUX and ERGO, especially due to FLUX's high mining rewards and parallel assets
- ETH is moving to POS, meaning it won't be minable in the future. When that happens, we can expect a huge miner selloff
- Only reason ETH went from $300 to $1000 so fast was because of all the projects on defi offering insane yields and other projects with high potential
- Back then, BSC was relatively new. And now we have tons of other chains offering much better performance. Sure there are issues now and then with AVAX, BSC, MATIC but those are very rare and don't last too long
- Lots of newer and amazing projects are starting on AVAX and other chains, while is getting fewer and fewer exciting projects
- No one wants to invest tons of money in a bear market when inflation is so high, recession is on it's way, gas fees are insane and everything is more expensive.
- With things being so expensive, it logically makes no sense for anyone to pay $30+ in fees when everyone is trying to save money
- Sure other blockchains will also go down in value in bear market, but not as much as ETH
- People are generally too scared to buy and invest in the bear market, which is why we will see money moving out of ETH
- People want to always invest and buy in bull markets when everything is green, this has been happening since the beginning of time

- If ETH dexes weren't as common, then I could vision ETH going much lower than $500
- But since there will still be demand for ETH due to all the projects on ETH blockchain, I can't see it dropping to $250 or so
- ETH is the 2nd largest cryptocurrency, and I don't see it losing that status for a long time, though I do see it losing it's value
- Remember that more and more ETH is mined every day
- In early 2018, ETH had a market cap of 131b, at a price of $1361. That means that the total supply of ETH in early 2018 was 96,252,755
- If we apply the current market cap of ETH ($203,424,765,986) to the supply of what ETH was in early 2018, it would mean the current price of ETH would be $2113
- That just shows you that the price of ETH will continue to decrease even more as supply grows. For ETH to increase in price, it would have to have a much larger market cap to keep up with the supply
- In 4 years from now, we estimate that the circulating supply of ETH will be roughly 146m. Meaning for ETH to reach it's all time high price of $4,878.26, the market cap in 2024 would have to be $712,188,000,000
- It only required a 551b market cap in 2021 for ETH to reach $4878, in 4 years it will require 712b to reach $4878!! And with ETH's high gas fees, and more new cheaper blockchain solutions coming up, ETH has really a very slim chance of getting that high again
- Just imagine in the retail world, if you were to request a refund from a shop. They would have pay an insane amount in fees just to send you a refund on ETH blockchain. Where as they can only pay a few cents in fees or even have it be free if using KDA or other chain

T/A and charts are great, but sometimes we also need to think logically and use fundamentals.
ETH, DOGE, WAVES, SXP are all inflationary assets, there supply is ever increasing. My mentors always mentioned that in crypto, it's best to invest in coins with either a fixed supply or a deflationary supply.

I don't know when ETH will be under $1000 or $500, but I have a strong feeling it will be before the 2024 halving