Ethereum Bulls to Target $2,100 on Easing Recession Fears
Cryptocurrencies have also been seen by some investors as a speculative hedge against inflation and the Fed's plans to curb inflation could weigh on the broader cryptocurrency sector.
On Friday, ETH joined the broader crypto market in a bullish session, gaining 6.28% to end the day at $1,996.
US economic indicators and staking statistics supported an ETH return to $2,000.
However, the technical indicators remained bullish, signaling a return to $2,100.
BIAS SHORT- and MIDTERM BULLISH
Stong Supports 1594 D-POC AND 1034
NEXT WEEK IS IMPORTANT
A PULLBACK TO 1034 WITH LOW VOLUME MEANS THE BULLS
WILL DISTIBUTE THEIR POSITIONS AND MOBILIZE TO ATTACK THE BEARS VERY AGRESSIVELY
A PULL BACK WITH HIGH FAT THICK LONG VOLUME MEANS BEARS
GONNA TAKE FULL CONTROL OF THE MARKET AND SEND ETHEREUM TO THE DEEPEST LEVELS POSSIBLE
LOSING OF 1034 MEANS CRYSTAL CLEAR ABSOLUTE BEAISH TREND
ON THE SAME TIME THIS ZONE IS A LOW VOLUME AREA: IF VOLUME IS INCREASING IN THIS AREA AND THE BULLS DO NOT ANSWER AGGRESSIVELY AND QUICK, we will ceate a midtem sideways and consolidating area: WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
WELL THE BULLS TRY TO TAKE PARTIAL POFITS OR COMPENSATE THEI LOSSES WHILE SELLERS AND BEARS WILL ACCUMULTAE MORE CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY TO PRESS DOWN THE COIN
THEN 1034 WILL BECOME THE FIST BUT VERY STRONG RESISTANCE!
MY 8Q STRATGY: 6Qs ae bullish 2Qs neutral: bUT THE MOST IMPORTANT AND LAT CONFIRMATION IS BEARISH
I CALL THIS BULL/BEAR TRAP DESTROYER!!!
AND SEE YOURSELF THE PAST RESULTS!!!! AMAZING HUH?
WELL UNTIL THIS LAST CONFIRMATION IS RED I TRADE THE BEARISH SETUP: GOING SHOT NEAR OF THE HIGH
AND PUTTING A VERY TIGHT STOP AT AROUND 2180USD!
WHY?
BECAUSE THE 2093 THE CONFLUENCE WEDGE LINE IS VERY IMPORTANT TRIGGER
THAT ALMOST WORKS AS SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE!
BREAKING ABOVE 2096+ pullback and holding above this area+ High volume means BULLISH SET UP. Better: Use divergence if pullback
(SEEL PULLBACK SCENARIO in PINK)
You must have highe highs and higher lows and then take the move after the 2nd HH and HL
Stop. I give more rooms to trae and try to myake it very difficult for the maket to hit me.
You Stop. DEPENDS ON YOU RISK AVERSION ;CAPITAL SIZE;ACCOUNT SIZE;LOT SIZE
But I recommand ALWAYS TO WORK WITH STOPS !!!ALWAYS!!! AS PROTECTION YOUR CAPITAL IS THE MOST IMPORTANT LAW AND RULE OF SUCCESSFULL TRADING!!!! EVER!NEVER!
A mixed start to the day saw ETH slip to an early low of $1,876. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,858, ETH rallied to a late afternoon high of $2,000. ETH broke through the Major Resistance Levels to end the day at $1,996.
US Jobs Report Eased Recession Jitters but Leave Fed Rate Hikes Subdued
It was a busy Friday session for the global financial markets. The all-important US Jobs Report drew interest ahead of next week’s US CPI Report.
Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 253k in April versus a forecasted 180k increase. In March, nonfarm payrolls rose by 165k. Significantly, average hourly earnings were up 4.4% year-over-year versus 4.3% in March. Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase by 4.2%.
As a result of the better-than-expected NFP number, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 3.6%.
The Jobs Report eased recessionary fears, supporting riskier assets. However, market bets on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June remained subdued. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike rose from 0.0% to 8.5%. The Jobs Report did wipe out bets of a June rate cut, with the chances of a rate cut falling from 9.2% to 0.0%.
While the combination of easing recessionary fears and subdued bets of another Fed rate hike delivered support, sentiment could change on Wednesday. The US CPI Report has to show softer inflation to keep the Fed hawks silent.
On Friday, ETH joined the broader crypto market in a bullish session, gaining 6.28% to end the day at $1,996.
US economic indicators and staking statistics supported an ETH return to $2,000.
However, the technical indicators remained bullish, signaling a return to $2,100.
BIAS SHORT- and MIDTERM BULLISH
Stong Supports 1594 D-POC AND 1034
NEXT WEEK IS IMPORTANT
A PULLBACK TO 1034 WITH LOW VOLUME MEANS THE BULLS
WILL DISTIBUTE THEIR POSITIONS AND MOBILIZE TO ATTACK THE BEARS VERY AGRESSIVELY
A PULL BACK WITH HIGH FAT THICK LONG VOLUME MEANS BEARS
GONNA TAKE FULL CONTROL OF THE MARKET AND SEND ETHEREUM TO THE DEEPEST LEVELS POSSIBLE
LOSING OF 1034 MEANS CRYSTAL CLEAR ABSOLUTE BEAISH TREND
ON THE SAME TIME THIS ZONE IS A LOW VOLUME AREA: IF VOLUME IS INCREASING IN THIS AREA AND THE BULLS DO NOT ANSWER AGGRESSIVELY AND QUICK, we will ceate a midtem sideways and consolidating area: WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
WELL THE BULLS TRY TO TAKE PARTIAL POFITS OR COMPENSATE THEI LOSSES WHILE SELLERS AND BEARS WILL ACCUMULTAE MORE CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY TO PRESS DOWN THE COIN
THEN 1034 WILL BECOME THE FIST BUT VERY STRONG RESISTANCE!
MY 8Q STRATGY: 6Qs ae bullish 2Qs neutral: bUT THE MOST IMPORTANT AND LAT CONFIRMATION IS BEARISH
I CALL THIS BULL/BEAR TRAP DESTROYER!!!
AND SEE YOURSELF THE PAST RESULTS!!!! AMAZING HUH?
WELL UNTIL THIS LAST CONFIRMATION IS RED I TRADE THE BEARISH SETUP: GOING SHOT NEAR OF THE HIGH
AND PUTTING A VERY TIGHT STOP AT AROUND 2180USD!
WHY?
BECAUSE THE 2093 THE CONFLUENCE WEDGE LINE IS VERY IMPORTANT TRIGGER
THAT ALMOST WORKS AS SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE!
BREAKING ABOVE 2096+ pullback and holding above this area+ High volume means BULLISH SET UP. Better: Use divergence if pullback
(SEEL PULLBACK SCENARIO in PINK)
You must have highe highs and higher lows and then take the move after the 2nd HH and HL
Stop. I give more rooms to trae and try to myake it very difficult for the maket to hit me.
You Stop. DEPENDS ON YOU RISK AVERSION ;CAPITAL SIZE;ACCOUNT SIZE;LOT SIZE
But I recommand ALWAYS TO WORK WITH STOPS !!!ALWAYS!!! AS PROTECTION YOUR CAPITAL IS THE MOST IMPORTANT LAW AND RULE OF SUCCESSFULL TRADING!!!! EVER!NEVER!
A mixed start to the day saw ETH slip to an early low of $1,876. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,858, ETH rallied to a late afternoon high of $2,000. ETH broke through the Major Resistance Levels to end the day at $1,996.
US Jobs Report Eased Recession Jitters but Leave Fed Rate Hikes Subdued
It was a busy Friday session for the global financial markets. The all-important US Jobs Report drew interest ahead of next week’s US CPI Report.
Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 253k in April versus a forecasted 180k increase. In March, nonfarm payrolls rose by 165k. Significantly, average hourly earnings were up 4.4% year-over-year versus 4.3% in March. Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase by 4.2%.
As a result of the better-than-expected NFP number, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 3.6%.
The Jobs Report eased recessionary fears, supporting riskier assets. However, market bets on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June remained subdued. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike rose from 0.0% to 8.5%. The Jobs Report did wipe out bets of a June rate cut, with the chances of a rate cut falling from 9.2% to 0.0%.
While the combination of easing recessionary fears and subdued bets of another Fed rate hike delivered support, sentiment could change on Wednesday. The US CPI Report has to show softer inflation to keep the Fed hawks silent.
Comment:
ETH Technical Indicators
ETH needs to avoid the $1,957 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $2,039. A move through the morning high of $2,020 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a breakout.
In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $2,081 and resistance at $2,100. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $2,205.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,915 into play. However, barring a crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,900 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,833. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,709.
ETH needs to avoid the $1,957 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $2,039. A move through the morning high of $2,020 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a breakout.
In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $2,081 and resistance at $2,100. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $2,205.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,915 into play. However, barring a crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,900 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,833. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,709.
Comment:
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,899. The 50-day EMA converged on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($2,039) to target R2 ($2,081) and $2,100. However, a fall through S1 ($1,915) would bring the EMAs into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,897) would send a bearish signal.
A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($2,039) to target R2 ($2,081) and $2,100. However, a fall through S1 ($1,915) would bring the EMAs into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,897) would send a bearish signal.
Comment:
Be Smarter Than Your Friends
FOCUS ON TREND
Entries
Exits
and PAUSES
Sometimes it is smarter to stay out
FOCUS ON TREND
Entries
Exits
and PAUSES
Sometimes it is smarter to stay out
Comment:
Ethereum Leads Bitcoin, Dogecoin And Follows The Stock Market Higher
Ethereum
ETH/USD
-4.30%
+ Free Alerts
was leading the crypto sector during Friday’s 24-hour trading session, rising more than 5%, in tandem with the general market, which saw the S&P 500 surging about 2% higher.
Ethereum
ETH/USD
-4.30%
+ Free Alerts
was leading the crypto sector during Friday’s 24-hour trading session, rising more than 5%, in tandem with the general market, which saw the S&P 500 surging about 2% higher.
Comment:
When Ethereum burst higher during Friday’s 24-hour trading session, it formed a higher high to confirm a new uptrend. The most recent higher low was formed on May 1 at $1,805 and on Friday, Ethereum traded above the lower high of $1,939.
If Ethereum closes the trading session near its high-of-day price, the crypto will print a bullish Marubozu candlestick, which could indicate higher prices will come again on Saturday. The second most likely scneario is that the crypto will trade sideways to form an inside bar to consolidate.
Ethereum has resistance above at $2,150 and $2,317 and support below at $1,957 and $1,846.
If Ethereum closes the trading session near its high-of-day price, the crypto will print a bullish Marubozu candlestick, which could indicate higher prices will come again on Saturday. The second most likely scneario is that the crypto will trade sideways to form an inside bar to consolidate.
Ethereum has resistance above at $2,150 and $2,317 and support below at $1,957 and $1,846.
Comment:
Worse Than 2008’—Bitcoin And Crypto Now Braced For $540 Billion Crisis, Ethereum Cofounder Warns After Price Boom
'Catastrophic Scenario'-JPMorgan Sees U.S. Banking Crisis As Boosting Bitcoin After $300 Billion Ethereum And Crypto Price Surge
By Billy Bambrough
'Catastrophic Scenario'-JPMorgan Sees U.S. Banking Crisis As Boosting Bitcoin After $300 Billion Ethereum And Crypto Price Surge
By Billy Bambrough
Comment:
A New Market Regime’—The Fed May Have Just Triggered A $100 Billion Bitcoin Price Boom As Ethereum Surges Back
The bitcoin price has come back to within touching distance of $30,000 per bitcoin despite sudden fears emerging that China, U.S. president Joe Biden and the Fed could be about to "destroy all value of bitcoin." EthereumETH -0.4%, the second-largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin, has also soared, climbing back toward highs not seen since last summer (even after founder Vitalik Buterin issued a bull run warning).
Now, bullish bitcoin and crypto price analysts have predicted the Federal Reserve's 10th hike could be its last of this cycle—potentially setting bitcoin up for a "strong rally."
The bitcoin price has come back to within touching distance of $30,000 per bitcoin despite sudden fears emerging that China, U.S. president Joe Biden and the Fed could be about to "destroy all value of bitcoin." EthereumETH -0.4%, the second-largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin, has also soared, climbing back toward highs not seen since last summer (even after founder Vitalik Buterin issued a bull run warning).
Now, bullish bitcoin and crypto price analysts have predicted the Federal Reserve's 10th hike could be its last of this cycle—potentially setting bitcoin up for a "strong rally."
Comment:
long
Comment:
US Lawmaker Scrutiny Sends BTC into the Red
It was a quiet Saturday session, with investors continuing to respond to the US Jobs Report.
However, the bullish sentiment failed to extend throughout the session, with US lawmakers and the SEC weighing on investor appetite.
On Friday, news hit the wires of the US Department of Justice investigating Binance for possible breaches of sanctions against Russia. While crypto investors may be able to stomach increased regulatory scrutiny, the discovery of a sanctions breach would give the US administration a solid footing in its anti-crypto agenda.
However, repercussions of a breach could extend beyond the US borders. European investors and regulators may also respond to any findings that Binance facilitated sanction evasion.
Voyager Digital news and regulatory risk added to the bearish mood as investors moved on from the US Jobs Report. Next week, the US CPI Report could refuel bets of a 25-basis point June rate hike and a hard landing.
Closer to home, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation may have contributed to a broad-based crypto sell-off. News of the Ethereum Foundation selling 15,000 ETH in response to Buterin selling just 200 ETH was bearish.
On November 12, 2021, the Ethereum Foundation sold 20,000 ETH. The sale preceded an extended sell-off that bottomed out in June 2022 with a low of $879.80. Just days before the sale, ETH had hit an ATH of $4,868.
It was a quiet Saturday session, with investors continuing to respond to the US Jobs Report.
However, the bullish sentiment failed to extend throughout the session, with US lawmakers and the SEC weighing on investor appetite.
On Friday, news hit the wires of the US Department of Justice investigating Binance for possible breaches of sanctions against Russia. While crypto investors may be able to stomach increased regulatory scrutiny, the discovery of a sanctions breach would give the US administration a solid footing in its anti-crypto agenda.
However, repercussions of a breach could extend beyond the US borders. European investors and regulators may also respond to any findings that Binance facilitated sanction evasion.
Voyager Digital news and regulatory risk added to the bearish mood as investors moved on from the US Jobs Report. Next week, the US CPI Report could refuel bets of a 25-basis point June rate hike and a hard landing.
Closer to home, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation may have contributed to a broad-based crypto sell-off. News of the Ethereum Foundation selling 15,000 ETH in response to Buterin selling just 200 ETH was bearish.
On November 12, 2021, the Ethereum Foundation sold 20,000 ETH. The sale preceded an extended sell-off that bottomed out in June 2022 with a low of $879.80. Just days before the sale, ETH had hit an ATH of $4,868.
Comment:
Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan lost a $1 million bet on Bitcoin’s rise. He bet BTC would reach $1 million by 17 June but conceded defeat before the deadline. “I burned a million to show everyone how the US government is printing trillions of dollars out of thin air,” the businessman tweeted.
The US president’s administration has proposed a 30% tax on crypto miners to make them more aware of the damage they are doing to the climate. The proposed tax will raise about $3.5 billion over ten years.
Robert Francis Kennedy Jr, a nephew of the 35th US President John F. Kennedy, criticised the SEC and FDIC for their “war on cryptocurrencies”, which he said had led to a banking crisis in the country.
The introduction of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will lead to “many unintended consequences”, said IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has vowed to ban the digital dollar in his state.
The US president’s administration has proposed a 30% tax on crypto miners to make them more aware of the damage they are doing to the climate. The proposed tax will raise about $3.5 billion over ten years.
Robert Francis Kennedy Jr, a nephew of the 35th US President John F. Kennedy, criticised the SEC and FDIC for their “war on cryptocurrencies”, which he said had led to a banking crisis in the country.
The introduction of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will lead to “many unintended consequences”, said IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has vowed to ban the digital dollar in his state.
Comment:
Avoid storing larger amounts
One of the most prominent and easy ways to keep your crypto safe is not to keep significant amounts in your wallet. Instead, small amounts are recommended. Chances of losses also increase when you put in more money. It would help if you understand your needs and demands, consider your everyday schedule and use of these currencies, and store currency accordingly.
One of the most prominent and easy ways to keep your crypto safe is not to keep significant amounts in your wallet. Instead, small amounts are recommended. Chances of losses also increase when you put in more money. It would help if you understand your needs and demands, consider your everyday schedule and use of these currencies, and store currency accordingly.
Comment:
20D BULLISH VOLUME Exploding right now
Comment:
Four Reason’s Ethereum Is Going To $4,200
Ethereum $3,000 Is A Stone’s Throw Away
Now that Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is trading at a new all-time high and above the $2,700 level, the question is how high will it go? The simple answer is much, much higher but there are some concrete targets investors, speculators, and traders can target. The very first and most obvious is based on Bitcoin. Ethereum and Bitcoin tend to track each other with Bitcoin leading the way and Bitcoin has far outpaced ETH over the past year. In fact, based on Bitcoin’s 200% increase since it cleared the 2018 high, we think Ethereum should already be trading near $4,200 but that will come in time.
#1 - The Berlin Hardfork Came And Went Without Pause -
The Berlin Hardfork went live on April 15th with hardly a ripple in the market. The fork introduced 4 new EIPs (Ethereum Improvement Protocols) that have been in the works for at least two years. The protocols do a number of things to address gas prices (the cost of using the Ethereum network) including limiting fees for some types of transactions and introducing new transaction types. The updates are the precursor for another EIP hard fork scheduled for later this year, an update that will have a far-reaching impact on ETH availability and pricing.
The London Hardfork will introduce EIP 1559 to the network and seriously cut down on gas fees. The EIP not only takes control of setting fees but will burn or permanently “lose” a portion of each fee once it’s collected. This will work to reduce fees and increase traffic, arguably increasing net earnings for miners, while also reducing the supply of Ether. We think it is a win-win but not everyone in the Ethereum community agrees with us.
#2 - Ethereum Gas Prices Are Already Falling
One of the biggest hurdles for the Ethereum network and its users is gas prices. The fees for transactions have been steadily rising on the force of rising demand and the fact miners are allowed to prioritize higher-paying users over others. The gas price for a transaction hit a high last year and held those levels well into 2021 but that situation is already changing. The price of gas spiked shortly after the Berlin hard fork but has since fallen to the lowest levels in nearly a year. If this trend continues it should help attract more users to the network, users that have been turning to other blockchains because of high prices.
Ethereum $3,000 Is A Stone’s Throw Away
Now that Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is trading at a new all-time high and above the $2,700 level, the question is how high will it go? The simple answer is much, much higher but there are some concrete targets investors, speculators, and traders can target. The very first and most obvious is based on Bitcoin. Ethereum and Bitcoin tend to track each other with Bitcoin leading the way and Bitcoin has far outpaced ETH over the past year. In fact, based on Bitcoin’s 200% increase since it cleared the 2018 high, we think Ethereum should already be trading near $4,200 but that will come in time.
#1 - The Berlin Hardfork Came And Went Without Pause -
The Berlin Hardfork went live on April 15th with hardly a ripple in the market. The fork introduced 4 new EIPs (Ethereum Improvement Protocols) that have been in the works for at least two years. The protocols do a number of things to address gas prices (the cost of using the Ethereum network) including limiting fees for some types of transactions and introducing new transaction types. The updates are the precursor for another EIP hard fork scheduled for later this year, an update that will have a far-reaching impact on ETH availability and pricing.
The London Hardfork will introduce EIP 1559 to the network and seriously cut down on gas fees. The EIP not only takes control of setting fees but will burn or permanently “lose” a portion of each fee once it’s collected. This will work to reduce fees and increase traffic, arguably increasing net earnings for miners, while also reducing the supply of Ether. We think it is a win-win but not everyone in the Ethereum community agrees with us.
#2 - Ethereum Gas Prices Are Already Falling
One of the biggest hurdles for the Ethereum network and its users is gas prices. The fees for transactions have been steadily rising on the force of rising demand and the fact miners are allowed to prioritize higher-paying users over others. The gas price for a transaction hit a high last year and held those levels well into 2021 but that situation is already changing. The price of gas spiked shortly after the Berlin hard fork but has since fallen to the lowest levels in nearly a year. If this trend continues it should help attract more users to the network, users that have been turning to other blockchains because of high prices.
Comment:
3) Ethereum Gains Market Share
Even with the high cost of gas, Ethereum has been gaining market share. The best way to view that is via the market dominance or market cap of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has long been the leader and that is not likely to change soon but it has been losing share over the past year. Bitcoin is losing share not only to Ethereum but to the rise of Defi tokens but let’s focus on Ethereum. Ethereum hit a low point in regards to market share early in 2020 and has seen a steady rise since. This rise is in correlation with several key events including multiple hard-forks and EIPs introductions and doubled ETH’s market share from about 7.5% to nearly 15% today. I expect this trend to continue.
Even with the high cost of gas, Ethereum has been gaining market share. The best way to view that is via the market dominance or market cap of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has long been the leader and that is not likely to change soon but it has been losing share over the past year. Bitcoin is losing share not only to Ethereum but to the rise of Defi tokens but let’s focus on Ethereum. Ethereum hit a low point in regards to market share early in 2020 and has seen a steady rise since. This rise is in correlation with several key events including multiple hard-forks and EIPs introductions and doubled ETH’s market share from about 7.5% to nearly 15% today. I expect this trend to continue.
Comment:
The Charts, Ethereum Is In The Lead Now
Not only is the chart of Ethereum very bullish, but it shows Ethereum is now leading the market. The price of Bitcoin may be trading at higher level relative to past highs but its price is in consolidation, it is trading below the 30-day moving average, and the indicators are still iffy. Ethereum, on the other hand, is trading at a new high, is trading well above the 30-day moving average, and has bullish indicators. If we were going to bet on one or the other making a strong move higher it would be on Ethereum.
Our first target for major resistance is near $3,350. We get that by projecting the magnitude of the latest rally from the current point of consolidation. Once that target is reached the $4,000 to $4,200 range (200% upside from the 2018 all-time high) comes into view and may be reached before the London hard-fork goes live in July.
Not only is the chart of Ethereum very bullish, but it shows Ethereum is now leading the market. The price of Bitcoin may be trading at higher level relative to past highs but its price is in consolidation, it is trading below the 30-day moving average, and the indicators are still iffy. Ethereum, on the other hand, is trading at a new high, is trading well above the 30-day moving average, and has bullish indicators. If we were going to bet on one or the other making a strong move higher it would be on Ethereum.
Our first target for major resistance is near $3,350. We get that by projecting the magnitude of the latest rally from the current point of consolidation. Once that target is reached the $4,000 to $4,200 range (200% upside from the 2018 all-time high) comes into view and may be reached before the London hard-fork goes live in July.
Comment:
New Report: Despite Crypto Ban, Chinese Citizens Trade on Binance and FTX Exchanges
Beijing has said 'no' to crypto, but that doesn't seem to affect a number of Chinese citizens who have continued trading digital coins since the ban - reportedly, on exchanges including Binance, FTX, OKX, and Huobi.
According to a Bloomberg report, some portion of the country's 1.4 billion people are seeking alternatives to traditional investments, including stocks and property, and they are turning to crypto.
The article cited "varied sources", including FTX’s creditor profile, citizens who stated that they used crypto platforms, and industry insiders describing workarounds to the ban.
FTX's US bankruptcy filings showed that Chinese users accounted for 8% of the exchange’s customers, with advisers counting more than 9 million customer accounts, and claims from creditors amounting to some $11.6 billion.
Jack Ding, a partner with crypto regulations specialist Duan & Duan Law Firm, told Bloomberg that he represents six Chinese creditors with a combined $10 million of FTX claims.
Meanwhile, Chinese investors noted the compliance challenge during interviews: four said that, after the ban was in place, they had traded on Binance, and another said he'd used OKX as well.
Four claimed they lived in mainland China and had passed know-your-customer (KYC) procedures using Chinese identification.
Another Chinese investor, who lives in Silicon Valley, USA, said his $8 million of crypto has been frozen on Binance since July at the request of the police in central Chongqing city who are investigating coins allegedly linked to illegal online casinos.
OKX declined to comment, said the report, while a Binance spokesperson denied that the company operates in mainland China in any way.
"Following the September 2021 ban, the Binance platform, including the website and mobile application, has been blocked behind the Great Firewall,” the Binance spokesperson was quoted as saying.
Ding said that, while crypto trading is outlawed for Chinese both at home and abroad, this is "hard to enforce."
Similarly, Caroline Malcolm, global head of public policy at the major blockchain analysis company Chainalysis, argued that "essentially, bans don’t work."
"The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies and the fact that they can be transferred peer-to-peer and traded on global exchanges make it difficult for any government to completely eliminate them."
Beijing has said 'no' to crypto, but that doesn't seem to affect a number of Chinese citizens who have continued trading digital coins since the ban - reportedly, on exchanges including Binance, FTX, OKX, and Huobi.
According to a Bloomberg report, some portion of the country's 1.4 billion people are seeking alternatives to traditional investments, including stocks and property, and they are turning to crypto.
The article cited "varied sources", including FTX’s creditor profile, citizens who stated that they used crypto platforms, and industry insiders describing workarounds to the ban.
FTX's US bankruptcy filings showed that Chinese users accounted for 8% of the exchange’s customers, with advisers counting more than 9 million customer accounts, and claims from creditors amounting to some $11.6 billion.
Jack Ding, a partner with crypto regulations specialist Duan & Duan Law Firm, told Bloomberg that he represents six Chinese creditors with a combined $10 million of FTX claims.
Meanwhile, Chinese investors noted the compliance challenge during interviews: four said that, after the ban was in place, they had traded on Binance, and another said he'd used OKX as well.
Four claimed they lived in mainland China and had passed know-your-customer (KYC) procedures using Chinese identification.
Another Chinese investor, who lives in Silicon Valley, USA, said his $8 million of crypto has been frozen on Binance since July at the request of the police in central Chongqing city who are investigating coins allegedly linked to illegal online casinos.
OKX declined to comment, said the report, while a Binance spokesperson denied that the company operates in mainland China in any way.
"Following the September 2021 ban, the Binance platform, including the website and mobile application, has been blocked behind the Great Firewall,” the Binance spokesperson was quoted as saying.
Ding said that, while crypto trading is outlawed for Chinese both at home and abroad, this is "hard to enforce."
Similarly, Caroline Malcolm, global head of public policy at the major blockchain analysis company Chainalysis, argued that "essentially, bans don’t work."
"The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies and the fact that they can be transferred peer-to-peer and traded on global exchanges make it difficult for any government to completely eliminate them."
Comment:
Ripple Criticizes SEC's Regulatory Approach
Ripple has taken aim at the US regulatory approach to the crypto industry, arguing that it focuses on enforcement rather than establishing clear rules.
The company cites examples of enforcement actions, such as the SEC issuing Wells Notices to Coinbase and Paxos, rather than creating regulations.
For context, the SEC sued Ripple and two of its executives, Chris Larsen and Brad Garlinghouse, in December 2020, alleging that they offered unregistered securities in the form of XRP.
The SEC has faced backlash over its lack of clarity regarding what constitutes a security, and the ongoing Ripple case is expected to provide more insight.
Despite repeated inquiries, SEC Chair Gary Gensler has not provided a definitive answer, including on the status of Ethereum (ETH).
Ripple is currently seeking the unsealing of documents related to the Hinman speech, which could reveal how the SEC initially classified digital assets.
Ripple has taken aim at the US regulatory approach to the crypto industry, arguing that it focuses on enforcement rather than establishing clear rules.
The company cites examples of enforcement actions, such as the SEC issuing Wells Notices to Coinbase and Paxos, rather than creating regulations.
For context, the SEC sued Ripple and two of its executives, Chris Larsen and Brad Garlinghouse, in December 2020, alleging that they offered unregistered securities in the form of XRP.
The SEC has faced backlash over its lack of clarity regarding what constitutes a security, and the ongoing Ripple case is expected to provide more insight.
Despite repeated inquiries, SEC Chair Gary Gensler has not provided a definitive answer, including on the status of Ethereum (ETH).
Ripple is currently seeking the unsealing of documents related to the Hinman speech, which could reveal how the SEC initially classified digital assets.
Comment:
Fed says banking sector looks set to weather recent turmoil
"The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise and is committed to ensuring that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles," the Fed said.
While the central bank noted there were spillover concerns following the failures of Santa Clara, California-based SVB and New York-based Signature, it maintained that the issues that sank those regional banks do not appear broadly across the banking sector, calling them "outliers" in terms of heavy reliance on uninsured deposits.
Those firms, as well as First Republic Bank, which was closed by regulators earlier this month and sold to JP Morgan Chase, also were grappling with large amounts of unrealized losses spurred by rapidly rising interest rates. Depositors fled SVB within days after it appeared the firm was in trouble, precipitating its abrupt closure.
The Fed noted in its report on Monday that more than 45% of bank assets reprice or mature within a year, suggesting there is not heavy exposure to less valuable securities for long periods of time. But while the amount of uninsured deposits at banks is declining, they still remain above historical averages after an influx of deposits spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized.
DEBT LIMIT CONCERNS
The Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand.
Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. However, it noted that valuations on commercial real estate remain high, which suggests there could be a "sizable" correction in property values should telework trends remain strong. The Fed found that banks hold about 60% of commercial real estate loans, with two-thirds of those at smaller lenders with less than $100 billion in assets.
The Fed's report also found that nearly half of its respondents identified the U.S. debt limit as a salient risk, after not appearing as a top concern in the previous report in November. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the limit could be reached in June, but Democrats and Republicans are still sparring over what conditions, if any, should be attached to an increase.
Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.
"The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise and is committed to ensuring that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles," the Fed said.
While the central bank noted there were spillover concerns following the failures of Santa Clara, California-based SVB and New York-based Signature, it maintained that the issues that sank those regional banks do not appear broadly across the banking sector, calling them "outliers" in terms of heavy reliance on uninsured deposits.
Those firms, as well as First Republic Bank, which was closed by regulators earlier this month and sold to JP Morgan Chase, also were grappling with large amounts of unrealized losses spurred by rapidly rising interest rates. Depositors fled SVB within days after it appeared the firm was in trouble, precipitating its abrupt closure.
The Fed noted in its report on Monday that more than 45% of bank assets reprice or mature within a year, suggesting there is not heavy exposure to less valuable securities for long periods of time. But while the amount of uninsured deposits at banks is declining, they still remain above historical averages after an influx of deposits spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized.
DEBT LIMIT CONCERNS
The Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand.
Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. However, it noted that valuations on commercial real estate remain high, which suggests there could be a "sizable" correction in property values should telework trends remain strong. The Fed found that banks hold about 60% of commercial real estate loans, with two-thirds of those at smaller lenders with less than $100 billion in assets.
The Fed's report also found that nearly half of its respondents identified the U.S. debt limit as a salient risk, after not appearing as a top concern in the previous report in November. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the limit could be reached in June, but Democrats and Republicans are still sparring over what conditions, if any, should be attached to an increase.
Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.
Comment:
Binance NFT, the crypto exchange’s non-fungible token marketplace, previously added support for the BNB chain, Ethereum and Polygon
Comment:
Binance will support Bitcoin Ordinals — akin to NFTs on Ethereum — on its NFT marketplace beginning in late May 2023.
This means that Binance users will no longer need a separate Bitcoin wallet that supports Ordinals inscriptions, making transactions quite a bit easier.
“Binance users will also be able to purchase and trade Bitcoin NFTs directly with their Binance accounts,” a statement from Binance said. “This integration offers even more seamless and efficient trading for Binance users.”
The largest centralized crypto exchange also said it would be offering Bitcoin NFT creators “royalty support” and additional ways to generate revenue.
Mayur Kamat, Head of Product at Binance, told Blockworks that it’s too early to tell how transformational bringing Ordinals to the NFT platform will be, but “time will tell.”
“Since the beginning, everyone has wondered about Bitcoin use outside of inflation hedge or store of value. Not only has it shown massive value, but we are now seeing that the network can aspire to be more,” Kamat said.
Ordinals launched in January, allowing users to “inscribe” text, audio, art or even video games into individual satoshis, BTC’s smallest unit. They reside entirely on the blockchain.
This news of Binance’s integration of Ordinals comes after a rush of Ordinals inscriptions contributed to Bitcoin processing the highest number of transactions in its 14-year history on May 1, 2023, on-chain data shows.
More generally, Bitcoin transactions are breaking all-time records — there were 444,000 unconfirmed transactions sitting in the mempool Monday morning.
This surge in transactions and the skyrocketing fees were the reasons Binance gave for temporarily halting bitcoin withdrawals on Sunday. The company said it would adjust its fees to “prevent a similar recurrence in the future,” and flirted with a possible integration of the Bitcoin Lightning Network to speed up transactions.
This means that Binance users will no longer need a separate Bitcoin wallet that supports Ordinals inscriptions, making transactions quite a bit easier.
“Binance users will also be able to purchase and trade Bitcoin NFTs directly with their Binance accounts,” a statement from Binance said. “This integration offers even more seamless and efficient trading for Binance users.”
The largest centralized crypto exchange also said it would be offering Bitcoin NFT creators “royalty support” and additional ways to generate revenue.
Mayur Kamat, Head of Product at Binance, told Blockworks that it’s too early to tell how transformational bringing Ordinals to the NFT platform will be, but “time will tell.”
“Since the beginning, everyone has wondered about Bitcoin use outside of inflation hedge or store of value. Not only has it shown massive value, but we are now seeing that the network can aspire to be more,” Kamat said.
Ordinals launched in January, allowing users to “inscribe” text, audio, art or even video games into individual satoshis, BTC’s smallest unit. They reside entirely on the blockchain.
This news of Binance’s integration of Ordinals comes after a rush of Ordinals inscriptions contributed to Bitcoin processing the highest number of transactions in its 14-year history on May 1, 2023, on-chain data shows.
More generally, Bitcoin transactions are breaking all-time records — there were 444,000 unconfirmed transactions sitting in the mempool Monday morning.
This surge in transactions and the skyrocketing fees were the reasons Binance gave for temporarily halting bitcoin withdrawals on Sunday. The company said it would adjust its fees to “prevent a similar recurrence in the future,” and flirted with a possible integration of the Bitcoin Lightning Network to speed up transactions.
Comment:
ETH’s recent downside could be more than just a meager event thanks to…
ETH long-term holders are bowing to the FUD and pressure to take profits. According to the latest Glassnode alerts, ETH’s realized cap just reached a new 5-month high.
The Ethereum Foundation sells a large sum of ETH leading to bearish speculation.
Address activity suggests that there is some accumulation despite the FUD.
The amount of FUD in the crypto market in the last few days intensified, as investor confidence evaporated. This has been the case, particularly for ETH following the Ethereum Foundation’s large sale.
ETH long-term holders are bowing to the FUD and pressure to take profits. According to the latest Glassnode alerts, ETH’s realized cap just reached a new 5-month high.
The Ethereum Foundation sells a large sum of ETH leading to bearish speculation.
Address activity suggests that there is some accumulation despite the FUD.
The amount of FUD in the crypto market in the last few days intensified, as investor confidence evaporated. This has been the case, particularly for ETH following the Ethereum Foundation’s large sale.
Comment:
Recent prevailing sentiments especially regarding ETH suggested that it recently hit a local top. As such, downside expectations are notably higher this week. The Ethereum Foundation has historically offloaded a sizable amount of ETH from its addresses near the tops of a bullish trend. The Ethereum Foundation recently sold off 15,000 ETH.
Comment:
Although the foundation contributed to selling pressure in the past, it wasn’t always at the top of a bull trend. There have been a few instances where buying pressure prevailed despite large outflows from Ethereum Foundation addresses. In fact, multiple indicators confirmed that there was significant demand in the market.
Comment:
Anon Ethereum Whale Shifts $154 Million in ETH with Less Than $4 as TXN Fee. Here’s the Destination
Comment:
XRP SCAM & BITCOIN IS LEAVING THE USA
DAVINCI
DAVINCI
Comment:
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a decentralized blockchain network, but it differs from Bitcoin in several key ways that contribute to its value.
One of the main differences is that Ethereum is not just a currency but also a platform for building decentralized applications (DApps) and smart contracts. These smart contracts allow for the creation of programmable and self-executing agreements that can automate many types of transactions, reducing the need for intermediaries and increasing efficiency.
Another factor that contributes to Ethereum's value is its community of developers and users. Ethereum has a large and active community that continues to build and innovate on the platform, creating new use cases and driving adoption.
Additionally, Ethereum has a more flexible and dynamic supply than Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, Ethereum does not have a fixed supply, and new tokens can be created through a process called mining or through other mechanisms like token sales and airdrops.
Overall, the combination of Ethereum's versatility as a platform for decentralized applications, its active community, and its flexible supply contribute to its value as a blockchain technology and cryptocurrency.
One of the main differences is that Ethereum is not just a currency but also a platform for building decentralized applications (DApps) and smart contracts. These smart contracts allow for the creation of programmable and self-executing agreements that can automate many types of transactions, reducing the need for intermediaries and increasing efficiency.
Another factor that contributes to Ethereum's value is its community of developers and users. Ethereum has a large and active community that continues to build and innovate on the platform, creating new use cases and driving adoption.
Additionally, Ethereum has a more flexible and dynamic supply than Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, Ethereum does not have a fixed supply, and new tokens can be created through a process called mining or through other mechanisms like token sales and airdrops.
Overall, the combination of Ethereum's versatility as a platform for decentralized applications, its active community, and its flexible supply contribute to its value as a blockchain technology and cryptocurrency.
Comment:
Recession in the United States
Will the recession in the US – if it is actually rolling – significantly reduce the demand for oil, which could justify the already falling oil price? Well, on Friday at 2:30 p.m. they showed US labor market data for April: The US unemployment rate drops to 3.4% ( forecast 3.6% ). And: 253,000 new jobs were created in the USA in April ( Forecast + 180,000 ). So the US economy is running more robust than many analysts thought. Does that mean for the oil price? Possibly oil demand will continue to be at a higher level, which the futures market immediately priced in. Since Friday at 2:30 p.m. we have seen an increase in American WTI oil of $ 2.
Will the recession in the US – if it is actually rolling – significantly reduce the demand for oil, which could justify the already falling oil price? Well, on Friday at 2:30 p.m. they showed US labor market data for April: The US unemployment rate drops to 3.4% ( forecast 3.6% ). And: 253,000 new jobs were created in the USA in April ( Forecast + 180,000 ). So the US economy is running more robust than many analysts thought. Does that mean for the oil price? Possibly oil demand will continue to be at a higher level, which the futures market immediately priced in. Since Friday at 2:30 p.m. we have seen an increase in American WTI oil of $ 2.
Comment:
Two days ago, the Ethereum Foundation responsible for the blockchain’s development transferred $30 million to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken.
This appears to have triggered some jitters in the market, exacerbating selling pressure that has also been seen across other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, a recent spike in gas fees as a result of a surge in meme coin trading (mostly focused around Pepe) may also be weighing on sentiment, as it highlights the scalability challenges the blockchain still faces.
This appears to have triggered some jitters in the market, exacerbating selling pressure that has also been seen across other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, a recent spike in gas fees as a result of a surge in meme coin trading (mostly focused around Pepe) may also be weighing on sentiment, as it highlights the scalability challenges the blockchain still faces.
Comment:
What is the debt ceiling?
The federal government operates in a deficit, spending more than it brings in with taxes, so it’s forced to borrow money to pay for everything from the salaries of armed forces and federal employees to Social Security
Congress has the power of the purse strings, letting it set a limit on what the government can borrow to pay for expenses (the debt ceiling). The current limit is $31.4 trillion.
What happens if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended?
When does the U.S. hit spending limit?
How many times has the debt ceiling been raised?
How much has the U.S. debt increased in the past 20 years?
What caused the debt?
Answers here
The federal government operates in a deficit, spending more than it brings in with taxes, so it’s forced to borrow money to pay for everything from the salaries of armed forces and federal employees to Social Security
Congress has the power of the purse strings, letting it set a limit on what the government can borrow to pay for expenses (the debt ceiling). The current limit is $31.4 trillion.
What happens if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended?
When does the U.S. hit spending limit?
How many times has the debt ceiling been raised?
How much has the U.S. debt increased in the past 20 years?
What caused the debt?
Answers here
Comment:
Stronger EUR/USD is bullish for all dollar-denominated precious metals including gold.
Comment:
Bought again at 1803
PT1 2223
PT1 2223
Comment:
Friday26.May is the Big Day of this week
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report
the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.
US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.
US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report
the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.
US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.
US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
Comment:
Some school kids asked me about Bitcoin and Cryptos. How would you explaine to a kid wht crypto is ,and debt cieling? Interesting is that they have heard about it....
Imagine Bitcoin and cryptos as a special kind of digital treasure or virtual money.
more and more people are becoming interested in this digital treasure because they think it's valuable.
the Bitcoin price going up over time, like a roller coaster ride going higher and higher.
as more people want to own Bitcoin, its price increases because there is a limited amount available, just like rare toys or collectibles becoming more expensive when everyone wants them.
Understanding Volume and its Importance:
Volume means how much of something is being bought or sold
when there is a lot of buying and selling of Bitcoin (high volume), it shows that many people are interested in it, and this can affect its price.
Mention that high volume means there are lots of people who believe Bitcoin is valuable and want to own it, so its price can go up.
USA Debt Ceiling and Bitcoin's Rise:
Debt ceiling is like a limit or cap on how much money the government can borrow.
when there are concerns about the debt ceiling, it can create uncertainty about the economy and the value of regular money.
some people might think Bitcoin is a better choice because it's not controlled by any government and is seen as a more stable and valuable option.
that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are related to these sectors because they can be used in various ways within them.
For example, in technology, people can use Bitcoin to buy computer parts or software.
a person using Bitcoin to buy a computer or video game.
In biotechnology, mention that Ethereum's technology can be used to create secure systems for storing medical records or sharing research data.
Sectors Benefiting from Bitcoin and Ethereum:
sectors where people want to make fast, secure, and global transactions can benefit from Bitcoin and Ethereum.
For online shopping, people can use Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy things quickly and securely without needing a credit card.
For gaming, some games allow players to earn or trade virtual items using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Picture of a game character buying or selling virtual items with Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Imagine Bitcoin and cryptos as a special kind of digital treasure or virtual money.
more and more people are becoming interested in this digital treasure because they think it's valuable.
the Bitcoin price going up over time, like a roller coaster ride going higher and higher.
as more people want to own Bitcoin, its price increases because there is a limited amount available, just like rare toys or collectibles becoming more expensive when everyone wants them.
Understanding Volume and its Importance:
Volume means how much of something is being bought or sold
when there is a lot of buying and selling of Bitcoin (high volume), it shows that many people are interested in it, and this can affect its price.
Mention that high volume means there are lots of people who believe Bitcoin is valuable and want to own it, so its price can go up.
USA Debt Ceiling and Bitcoin's Rise:
Debt ceiling is like a limit or cap on how much money the government can borrow.
when there are concerns about the debt ceiling, it can create uncertainty about the economy and the value of regular money.
some people might think Bitcoin is a better choice because it's not controlled by any government and is seen as a more stable and valuable option.
that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are related to these sectors because they can be used in various ways within them.
For example, in technology, people can use Bitcoin to buy computer parts or software.
a person using Bitcoin to buy a computer or video game.
In biotechnology, mention that Ethereum's technology can be used to create secure systems for storing medical records or sharing research data.
Sectors Benefiting from Bitcoin and Ethereum:
sectors where people want to make fast, secure, and global transactions can benefit from Bitcoin and Ethereum.
For online shopping, people can use Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy things quickly and securely without needing a credit card.
For gaming, some games allow players to earn or trade virtual items using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Picture of a game character buying or selling virtual items with Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Comment:
The dollar index steadied around 103.3 on Tuesday, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, while traders cautiously awaited updates from the debt ceiling negotiations. In the latest central bank commentary, Fed’s Bullard suggested the possibility of raising rates by another half-point this year, while Fed's Kashkari described the decision to pause or hike rates in June as a close call. Markets have scaled back bets on interest rate cuts this year, with rates seen holding at around 4.7% by December. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy signaled cautious optimism that a deal to raise the debt ceiling would be reached, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirming that the US could be at risk of default by June 1.
Comment:
ETH Return to $1,900 on Staking Inflow Surge Hinged on Debt Ceiling Talks
The total value staked climbed higher, supported by the jump in staking inflows and the bullishsession.
ETH Technical Indicators
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 1,880 S1 – $ 1,822
R2 – $ 1,906 S2 – $ 1,790
R3 – $ 1,964 S3 – $ 1,732
The total value staked climbed higher, supported by the jump in staking inflows and the bullishsession.
ETH Technical Indicators
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 1,880 S1 – $ 1,822
R2 – $ 1,906 S2 – $ 1,790
R3 – $ 1,964 S3 – $ 1,732
Comment:
Market UpDATES:
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075
Comment:
ETH Back Above $1,800, as Market Volatility Remains High
Ethereum was once again trading above the $1,800 level, after a brief breakout during Thursday’s session. Prices rose by as much as 2%, as optimism grew that the U.S. debt ceiling could be increased. Bitcoin also marginally climbed, moving away from yesterday’s two-week low. Ethereum (ETH) rose back above the $1,800 mark on Friday, after dropping to a multi-week low of its own yesterday.
ETH/USD hit a high of $1,817.16 earlier in today’s session, which comes a day after the price fell to a bottom at $1,788.29.
As a result of today’s slight rebound, the 10-day (red) moving average is now firmly on the verge of crossing its 25-day (blue) counterpart.
The chances of this occurring come as price strength once again bounced from support at 44.00, leading to a reentry of long-term bulls.
As of writing this, the index is now tracking at 46.39, with the next visible resistance level at 51.00.
Should momentum continue to climb, there is a good chance that ETH could hit $1,900 this coming weekend.
Ethereum was once again trading above the $1,800 level, after a brief breakout during Thursday’s session. Prices rose by as much as 2%, as optimism grew that the U.S. debt ceiling could be increased. Bitcoin also marginally climbed, moving away from yesterday’s two-week low. Ethereum (ETH) rose back above the $1,800 mark on Friday, after dropping to a multi-week low of its own yesterday.
ETH/USD hit a high of $1,817.16 earlier in today’s session, which comes a day after the price fell to a bottom at $1,788.29.
As a result of today’s slight rebound, the 10-day (red) moving average is now firmly on the verge of crossing its 25-day (blue) counterpart.
The chances of this occurring come as price strength once again bounced from support at 44.00, leading to a reentry of long-term bulls.
As of writing this, the index is now tracking at 46.39, with the next visible resistance level at 51.00.
Should momentum continue to climb, there is a good chance that ETH could hit $1,900 this coming weekend.
Comment:
Bitcoin price climbs above $26,800 as traders eye resistance at $27,600
The durable goods number, personal spending, and the PCE inflation measures were all broadly above expectations
The durable goods number, personal spending, and the PCE inflation measures were all broadly above expectations
Comment:
opened above Monthly open.Trend bullish
Comment:
Markets steady ahead of final push on the debt deal
After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.
After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.
Comment:
ETH Rallies Up From Recent Bottom
While ETH has dipped, this means it's now due a rebound, as signalled by its various technical indicators.Its relative strength index (purple) plunged below 30 earlier today, suggesting that it has been oversold by traders and is now at a steep discount.
On the other hand, ETH's 30-day moving average (yellow) hasn't fallen below its 200-day average (blue) just yet, so a few more days of falling may be needed before it fully recovers.
That said, the coin's rising support level (green) would indicate that it won't fall too far, and that now may be the time to buy, before big gains arrive.
And looking at Ethereum's enviably strong fundamentals, the cryptocurrency really should rally big this year.
For one, the implementation of staking has revealed considerable demand for ETH, with the introduction of withdrawals in April not actually leading to a flood of selling.
It's actually quite the opposite, seeing as how the quantity of staked ETH has increased from about 18 million in April to 21.5 million today
This means that approx. 18% of ETH's total circulating supply is now staked, yet what's bullish is that this percentage could rise to somewhere between 40% and 60%, judging by average staking ratios for other proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies.
In other words, substantial quantities of ETH are going to be taken out of circulation, increasing demand relative to supply and likely boosting ETH's price.
On top of this, the transition to staking (which has reduced the issuing of new tokens) and the introduction of fee burns (via EIP-1559) means that Ethereum now has tendency to deflate, depending on how busy it becomes.
Again, this will reduce the available supply of ETH, in turn squeezing its price upwards.
Then there's the fact that Ethereum remains the most widely used layer-one blockchain by quite some margin, with the platform accounting for roughly 57.8% of the entire DeFi sector.
This indicates substantial adoption, and it's highly arguable that when the next bull market rolls around, Ethereum's pre-existing network effects will result in it attracting disproportionately more users than its rivals.
Such a claim is supported by how major adoption news tends to involve Ethereum, with Societe Generale launching its own euro-denominated stablecoin on Ethereum in April, and with Visa also using the platform to test USDC payments.
Taken together, such pieces of news suggest that Ethereum is going to remain the dominant layer-one platform for the forseeable future, and that ETH will rise in parallel with its growth.
Indeed, from ETH's current price of around $1,870, the market could expect it to reach $2,000 in the next few months, with the end of the year potentially seeing it rise as high as $2,500 or $3,000, depending on how bullish investors become.
While ETH has dipped, this means it's now due a rebound, as signalled by its various technical indicators.Its relative strength index (purple) plunged below 30 earlier today, suggesting that it has been oversold by traders and is now at a steep discount.
On the other hand, ETH's 30-day moving average (yellow) hasn't fallen below its 200-day average (blue) just yet, so a few more days of falling may be needed before it fully recovers.
That said, the coin's rising support level (green) would indicate that it won't fall too far, and that now may be the time to buy, before big gains arrive.
And looking at Ethereum's enviably strong fundamentals, the cryptocurrency really should rally big this year.
For one, the implementation of staking has revealed considerable demand for ETH, with the introduction of withdrawals in April not actually leading to a flood of selling.
It's actually quite the opposite, seeing as how the quantity of staked ETH has increased from about 18 million in April to 21.5 million today
This means that approx. 18% of ETH's total circulating supply is now staked, yet what's bullish is that this percentage could rise to somewhere between 40% and 60%, judging by average staking ratios for other proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies.
In other words, substantial quantities of ETH are going to be taken out of circulation, increasing demand relative to supply and likely boosting ETH's price.
On top of this, the transition to staking (which has reduced the issuing of new tokens) and the introduction of fee burns (via EIP-1559) means that Ethereum now has tendency to deflate, depending on how busy it becomes.
Again, this will reduce the available supply of ETH, in turn squeezing its price upwards.
Then there's the fact that Ethereum remains the most widely used layer-one blockchain by quite some margin, with the platform accounting for roughly 57.8% of the entire DeFi sector.
This indicates substantial adoption, and it's highly arguable that when the next bull market rolls around, Ethereum's pre-existing network effects will result in it attracting disproportionately more users than its rivals.
Such a claim is supported by how major adoption news tends to involve Ethereum, with Societe Generale launching its own euro-denominated stablecoin on Ethereum in April, and with Visa also using the platform to test USDC payments.
Taken together, such pieces of news suggest that Ethereum is going to remain the dominant layer-one platform for the forseeable future, and that ETH will rise in parallel with its growth.
Indeed, from ETH's current price of around $1,870, the market could expect it to reach $2,000 in the next few months, with the end of the year potentially seeing it rise as high as $2,500 or $3,000, depending on how bullish investors become.
Comment:
The Dow Jones cut early losses to trade around 50 points higher while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq extended gains to add about 0.5% each, as traders focus on the monetary policy outlook. Fresh data for unit labour costs, the ISM PMI and comments from some Fed officials reinforced bets the Fed will pause the tightening cycle this month. As a result, Treasury yields fell and tech shares got a boost. On the other hand, stocks of Salesforce fell nearly 5% after the company reported higher capital expenses than expected. Meanwhile, traders welcomed the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 by a vote of 314-117 on the House of Representatives. The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to be approved before the June 5th default deadline.
The dollar index fell below 103.9 on Thursday, the lowest in nearly a week, as fresh data and comments from some Fed officials raised bets the central bank will pause the tightening cycle when it meets in about two weeks. Unit labour costs rose less than expected in Q1 and the slump in productivity was revised lower, while the ISM PMI showed the manufacturing sector contracted for a 7th month. On the other hand, initial jobless claims and the ADP report beat forecasts. Also, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggested the central bank would skip a rate hike in the next meeting. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives approved the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 by a vote of 314-117 on Wednesday evening. The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to be approved before the June 5th default deadline.
The dollar index fell below 103.9 on Thursday, the lowest in nearly a week, as fresh data and comments from some Fed officials raised bets the central bank will pause the tightening cycle when it meets in about two weeks. Unit labour costs rose less than expected in Q1 and the slump in productivity was revised lower, while the ISM PMI showed the manufacturing sector contracted for a 7th month. On the other hand, initial jobless claims and the ADP report beat forecasts. Also, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggested the central bank would skip a rate hike in the next meeting. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives approved the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 by a vote of 314-117 on Wednesday evening. The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to be approved before the June 5th default deadline.
Comment:
Accordingly, the resistance at $1,949 has come into play for the umpteenth time, preventing Ethereum price from recording further gains. This comes as investors' sell-stop orders lock in profits around that price. In layman's language, a sell-stop order is a stop order to sell at a market price after a stop price parameter has been reached.
The fortitude of the $1,949 hurdle comes amid waning buying momentum among bulls, which could see ETH retrace lower. This is likely, considering the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing south, indicating a slump in buying pressure. Similarly, the Awesome Oscillators (AO) edged toward the bears, as indicated by the quick switch from green to red. Soon, this indicator could draw toward the midline and into the negative zone unless bulls recover.
The move could see Ethereum price lose the support confluence between the lower boundary of the pennant and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,848. In the dire case, ETH could retest the 100- and 200-day EMA at $1,791 and $1,719, respectively.
The fortitude of the $1,949 hurdle comes amid waning buying momentum among bulls, which could see ETH retrace lower. This is likely, considering the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing south, indicating a slump in buying pressure. Similarly, the Awesome Oscillators (AO) edged toward the bears, as indicated by the quick switch from green to red. Soon, this indicator could draw toward the midline and into the negative zone unless bulls recover.
The move could see Ethereum price lose the support confluence between the lower boundary of the pennant and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,848. In the dire case, ETH could retest the 100- and 200-day EMA at $1,791 and $1,719, respectively.
Comment:
The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a 'soft landing' after Congress's approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.
The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
Comment:
Bitcoin price liquidations cross $100 million after the SEC’s recent lawsuit against Binance.
Ethereum price could retest the $2,000 psychological level if sidelined buyers join the fray.
Ripple price to get boring for a few days before XRP reveals its directional bias.
Ethereum price could retest the $2,000 psychological level if sidelined buyers join the fray.
Ripple price to get boring for a few days before XRP reveals its directional bias.
Comment:
US100
Nasdaq Bitcoin and Co. Bullish
US100
Nasdaq Bitcoin and Co. Bullish
Comment:
Nasdaq Bitcoin and Co. Bullish
Comment:
US100
long bullish
5min divergence long
5min. short DXY rips nasdaq bitcoin gold euro and co bullish
Unemployment 261K
long bullish
5min divergence long
5min. short DXY rips nasdaq bitcoin gold euro and co bullish
Unemployment 261K
Comment:
DXY Falls after Weekly Claims
The dollar index dropped to as low as 103.58 on Thursday after higher-than-anticipated weekly claims reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt its cycle of interest rate increases before resuming them in July, but unexpected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike already next week. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's decision could be influenced by the release of May's consumer inflation data, scheduled for a day before the central bank's meeting, which is projected to indicate a 0.3% increase in prices.
Initial Jobless Claims Jump to 2021-Highs
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 261K in the week ended June 3rd 2023, the highest figure since October 2021, and above market forecasts of 235K. Figures for the previous week were revised slightly higher to 233K from an initial 232K. It marks a third consecutive week of increases in the number of initial jobless claims, in a sign the labour market strenght may be fading. The 4-week moving average which removes week-to-week volatility was 237.25K, an increase of 7.5K from the previous week. Based on unadjusted data, the largest increases in initial claims were in Ohio (6.345K), California (5.173K), and Minnesota (2.746K), while the largest decreases were in Connecticut (-2.35K) and NY (-1.243K). Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 1757K from 1794K, below forecasts of 1800K.
The dollar index dropped to as low as 103.58 on Thursday after higher-than-anticipated weekly claims reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt its cycle of interest rate increases before resuming them in July, but unexpected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike already next week. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's decision could be influenced by the release of May's consumer inflation data, scheduled for a day before the central bank's meeting, which is projected to indicate a 0.3% increase in prices.
Initial Jobless Claims Jump to 2021-Highs
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 261K in the week ended June 3rd 2023, the highest figure since October 2021, and above market forecasts of 235K. Figures for the previous week were revised slightly higher to 233K from an initial 232K. It marks a third consecutive week of increases in the number of initial jobless claims, in a sign the labour market strenght may be fading. The 4-week moving average which removes week-to-week volatility was 237.25K, an increase of 7.5K from the previous week. Based on unadjusted data, the largest increases in initial claims were in Ohio (6.345K), California (5.173K), and Minnesota (2.746K), while the largest decreases were in Connecticut (-2.35K) and NY (-1.243K). Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 1757K from 1794K, below forecasts of 1800K.
Comment:
US Wholesale Inventories Fall for 2nd Month
Wholesale inventories in the US decreased 0.1% month-over-month in April 2023, less than earlier estimates of a 0.2% fall and following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in March. Inventories fell for nondurables (-1.2% vs -0.5% in March), mostly drugs (-0.8%), apparel (-2.3%), and farm products (-7.1%). On the other hand stocks for durable goods rose 0.6% (vs a flat reading in March). Compared to a year earlier, wholesale inventories jumped 6.3%.
Wholesale inventories in the US decreased 0.1% month-over-month in April 2023, less than earlier estimates of a 0.2% fall and following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in March. Inventories fell for nondurables (-1.2% vs -0.5% in March), mostly drugs (-0.8%), apparel (-2.3%), and farm products (-7.1%). On the other hand stocks for durable goods rose 0.6% (vs a flat reading in March). Compared to a year earlier, wholesale inventories jumped 6.3%.
Comment:
ADA, MATIC, SOL face the music as Robinhood delists tokens
Hours after Robinhood delisted ADA, MATIC, and SOL, the price action of the tokens was not what participants would have hoped for.
Ethereum continues to dominate the crypto sector, with increased TVL and notable growth on DEXs. NFT sector however, does not witness the same level of progress.
Should Shiba Inu traders be worried as Shibarium launch date remains uncertain
Solana prices dive 42% within a week, will there be a quick recovery
Solana nears an important resistance
Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility declined rapidly indicating the anticipation of low fluctuations of price from the options market.
Hours after Robinhood delisted ADA, MATIC, and SOL, the price action of the tokens was not what participants would have hoped for.
Ethereum continues to dominate the crypto sector, with increased TVL and notable growth on DEXs. NFT sector however, does not witness the same level of progress.
Should Shiba Inu traders be worried as Shibarium launch date remains uncertain
Solana nears an important resistance
Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility declined rapidly indicating the anticipation of low fluctuations of price from the options market.
Comment:
Asian Stock Market: Bulls and bears jostle at monthly top ahead of central bank decisions
Asia-Pacific shares grind near one-month highs amid cautious mood.
Softer Japan inflation, hopes of no PBOC rate hike underpin mildly positive risk appetite.
Holidays in Australia, light calendar elsewhere join pre-Fed anxiety to limit market moves.
Gold price is looking to extend Friday’s pullback from five-day highs of $1,973 on Monday. Despite the retreat, Gold price maintains its last week’s range, as investors turn cautious ahead of a big week, with eyes on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Federal Reserve policy announcements
USD/JPY strengthens beyond mid-139.00s on modest USD uptick, lacks bullish conviction
USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA but recovery remains elusive below 0.9100
GBPUSD SHORT on hawkish FED
SHORT
DAX40 Will Rise much more Higher
LONG
Asia-Pacific shares grind near one-month highs amid cautious mood.
Softer Japan inflation, hopes of no PBOC rate hike underpin mildly positive risk appetite.
Holidays in Australia, light calendar elsewhere join pre-Fed anxiety to limit market moves.
Gold price is looking to extend Friday’s pullback from five-day highs of $1,973 on Monday. Despite the retreat, Gold price maintains its last week’s range, as investors turn cautious ahead of a big week, with eyes on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Federal Reserve policy announcements
USD/JPY strengthens beyond mid-139.00s on modest USD uptick, lacks bullish conviction
USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA but recovery remains elusive below 0.9100
SHORT
DAX40 Will Rise much more Higher
LONG
Comment:
US Fed, BOJ, ECB Are Set to Announce Policies This Week
Comment:
US Stocks Rise Ahead Inflation, Fed
The Dow Jones rose 20 points on Monday, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.4% as investors are hopeful that inflationary pressures would show further signs of easing, supporting the case for a pause in the Fed’s interest rate hikes this week. The US inflation rate is forecasted to fall 4.1% in May, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April while the core gauge may decelerate to 5.2% from 5.5%. Most market participants expect the US central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at the current levels but there is a 30% chance of a rate hike depending on the CPI reading and after surprise moves in Australia and Canada last week. Among single stocks, Nasdaq tumbled 10% after the exchange operator said it agreed to acquire Adenza. Oracle was up nearly 4% ahead of earnings results after the market close
Crude Short oil make another bearish attempt
SHORT
BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER
LONG
Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen Down
LONG
GOLD STRONG BUY , short term correction coming soon
LONG
USD/CAD continues to move higher amid a broad sell-off in commod
LONG
USDCHF BEARISH Meets monthly Low and Support
SHORT
US100 Long U.S. Debt Deal Optimism Boosts Sentiment
LONG
The Dow Jones rose 20 points on Monday, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.4% as investors are hopeful that inflationary pressures would show further signs of easing, supporting the case for a pause in the Fed’s interest rate hikes this week. The US inflation rate is forecasted to fall 4.1% in May, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April while the core gauge may decelerate to 5.2% from 5.5%. Most market participants expect the US central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at the current levels but there is a 30% chance of a rate hike depending on the CPI reading and after surprise moves in Australia and Canada last week. Among single stocks, Nasdaq tumbled 10% after the exchange operator said it agreed to acquire Adenza. Oracle was up nearly 4% ahead of earnings results after the market close
Crude Short oil make another bearish attempt
SHORT
BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER
LONG
Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen Down
LONG
GOLD STRONG BUY , short term correction coming soon
LONG
USD/CAD continues to move higher amid a broad sell-off in commod
LONG
USDCHF BEARISH Meets monthly Low and Support
SHORT
US100 Long U.S. Debt Deal Optimism Boosts Sentiment
LONG
Comment:
US100
long
nasdaq100 us100 we go to 15200 where the profit taking and reveras begins US100 Long Rises Higher to 15200zone,the possible correction
US100
long nasdaq100 us100 we go to 15200 where the profit taking and reveras begins US100 Long Rises Higher to 15200zone,the possible correction
Comment:
US Dollar Index: DXY fades recovery below 104.00 on downbeat Fed bets, US inflation eyed
US Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.
It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.
US Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.
It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.
Comment:
US Dollar Index: DXY licks US inflation-inflicted wounds at three-week low above 103.00 on Fed day
US Dollar Index grinds near the lowest levels in three weeks after snapping two-day winning streak.
US inflation data bolsters market’s bets on Fed’s status quo and weigh on the DXY despite upbeat yields.
Cautious mood ahead of the FOMC announcements put a floor under the US Dollar price.
Expectations of witnessing a hawkish halt from US central bank highlight qualitative updates from the Fed.
US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies above 103.00, after bouncing off a three-week low, as markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements on Wednesday. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies slumped the most in a week, to the lowest levels since May 22, after the US inflation data fuelled speculations of the US central bank’s halt to the rate hike trajectory present in the last 10 monetary policy meetings.
As per the latest US inflation data for May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops more-than-expected and prior releases to 0.1% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, the Core CPI, known as the CPI ex Food & Energy, matches 0.4% monthly and 5.3% yearly forecasts. It’s worth noting that the US headline CPI dropped to the lowest since March 2021 and hence justifies the market’s expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish halt, which in turn should have weighed on the US Dollar.
Following the data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than a 90% chance of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) no rate hike during today’s monetary policy meeting, versus around 75% chance before that.
It’s worth noting, however, that the ex-Fed Officials have been pushing for a hawkish halt to the rate hikes and prods the DXY bears. On Tuesday, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting while also adding that he would “leave the question of a July hike open.” Previously, Ex-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren tweeted, “Expect a hawkish skip this week.”
As a result, Wall Street benchmarks rose for the second consecutive day but the US Treasury bond yields remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a 13-day high of 3.83% whereas the two-year counterpart poked the highest levels in three months with 4.70% mark before easing to 4.67% in the last hours.
Looking ahead, the pre-Fed sentiment may prod the DXY, as well as allow the greenback’s gauge to pare recent losses. However, the traders will pay attention to the US central bank’s economic forecasts, dot-plot and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clear directions afterward, as the rate hike pause is almost given.
US Dollar Index grinds near the lowest levels in three weeks after snapping two-day winning streak.
US inflation data bolsters market’s bets on Fed’s status quo and weigh on the DXY despite upbeat yields.
Cautious mood ahead of the FOMC announcements put a floor under the US Dollar price.
Expectations of witnessing a hawkish halt from US central bank highlight qualitative updates from the Fed.
US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies above 103.00, after bouncing off a three-week low, as markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements on Wednesday. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies slumped the most in a week, to the lowest levels since May 22, after the US inflation data fuelled speculations of the US central bank’s halt to the rate hike trajectory present in the last 10 monetary policy meetings.
As per the latest US inflation data for May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops more-than-expected and prior releases to 0.1% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, the Core CPI, known as the CPI ex Food & Energy, matches 0.4% monthly and 5.3% yearly forecasts. It’s worth noting that the US headline CPI dropped to the lowest since March 2021 and hence justifies the market’s expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish halt, which in turn should have weighed on the US Dollar.
Following the data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than a 90% chance of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) no rate hike during today’s monetary policy meeting, versus around 75% chance before that.
It’s worth noting, however, that the ex-Fed Officials have been pushing for a hawkish halt to the rate hikes and prods the DXY bears. On Tuesday, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting while also adding that he would “leave the question of a July hike open.” Previously, Ex-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren tweeted, “Expect a hawkish skip this week.”
As a result, Wall Street benchmarks rose for the second consecutive day but the US Treasury bond yields remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a 13-day high of 3.83% whereas the two-year counterpart poked the highest levels in three months with 4.70% mark before easing to 4.67% in the last hours.
Looking ahead, the pre-Fed sentiment may prod the DXY, as well as allow the greenback’s gauge to pare recent losses. However, the traders will pay attention to the US central bank’s economic forecasts, dot-plot and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clear directions afterward, as the rate hike pause is almost given.
Comment:
European equity markets were set for a positive open on Friday, tracking global peers higher amid bets that US interest rates could be nearing their peak as the American economy loses momentum and after the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign in June. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank opted to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying ‘we are not thinking about pausing.” Investors now look ahead to final euro zone inflation figures and wage growth data for further clues on the economy and future monetary policy. DAX futures jumped 0.9%, Stoxx 600 futures gained 0.5% and FTSE 100 futures edged up 0.2% in premarket trade.
Comment:
The Dow finished more than 100 points below the flatline on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors continued to assess the outlook of monetary policy for the Fed amid a massive options expiration at the second 2023’s quadruple witching date. Among stocks, Microsoft fell 1.7% and Micron Technology dropped 1.7%. Conversely, Virgin Galactic surged 16.3% on plans for commercial space tourism. Tesla added 1.8% after hitting a 37-week high during the session and Adobe gained 0.8% with positive earnings and guidance. On the week, the Dow Jones added 0.9%, marking a three-week winning streak despite the Fed's warning of future rate hikes. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, its fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest since November 2021, rising 2.2%. The Nasdaq was up 2.7% for an eighth straight positive week. Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.
Comment:
BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple Battles
BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above $26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to $28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past $27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward $24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at $23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the $24.2k-$24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the $22.4k and $21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at $27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above $26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to $28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past $27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward $24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at $23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the $24.2k-$24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the $22.4k and $21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at $27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
Comment:
Gold long going to above 2050
LONG
Gold Price Analysis: Testing Support Levels Amidst Consolidation and Breakout Attempts
Technical analysis reveals a retracement in gold, testing key support zones and indicating a healthy consolidation phase before an expected continuation of the uptrend.
Gold, FX Empire
Gold Forecast Video for 19.06.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold rises to a three-day high of 1,986 on Friday before pulling back. It attempted to breakout above the top boundary trendline of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern but is now on track to close below it and within the consolidation range.
Attempting to Break Up yet Remains in Consolidation Range
So far, Thursday’s test of the 100-Day EMA with a day’s low of 1,925 has held up but further signs of strength are needed. Gold briefly dropped below the 100-Day line earlier in the session on Thursday but managed to close strong, back above it and near the high of the day. The 100-Day EMA is now at 1,940.
Further Signs of Strength are Needed
Further signs of strength are needed to indicate whether yesterday’s low completes the retracement or further tests will occur. This week’s candlestick pattern is set to close as a bullish doji hammer. Next week an upside breakout signal will occur on a move above the high at 1,971, and the breakout is confirmed on a daily close above that high. Following a move above that high the next weekly resistance levels are 1,973, 1,983, and 1,985. A subsequent daily close above each price level will confirm strength, otherwise some resistance might be seen again around those levels.
If Lows Tested Again
If lower prices occur before a continuation higher the two potential support zones are around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,912, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,894. The 200-Day EMA was tested as support with a double bottom in the first quarter of this year price reversed higher from there.
Uptrend Intact
The current retracement in gold is a test of support around previous high swing high of 1,960 from early-February. So far, the retracement is normal and healthy for the uptrend. Consolidation has been occurring at the 50% retracement area as well as the 100-Day EMA. Notice that there is a greater distance between the 100-Day EMA and 200-Day than what was seen in February. It reflects an improving trend. Once this retracement is complete, all signs are that gold should continue higher.
Gold held above $1,950 an ounce on Friday after gaining 0.7% in the previous session, benefiting mainly from the dollar’s weakness as the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday.
Daily bullish
4H Bullish
34min Bullish
Gold is mostly traded on the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The standard future contract is 100 troy ounces. Gold is an attractive investment during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Half of the gold consumption in the world is in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry. The biggest producers of gold are China, Australia, United States, South Africa, Russia, Peru and Indonesia. The biggest consumers of gold jewelry are India, China, United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. The gold prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our gold prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.
LONG
Gold Price Analysis: Testing Support Levels Amidst Consolidation and Breakout Attempts
Technical analysis reveals a retracement in gold, testing key support zones and indicating a healthy consolidation phase before an expected continuation of the uptrend.
Gold, FX Empire
Gold Forecast Video for 19.06.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold rises to a three-day high of 1,986 on Friday before pulling back. It attempted to breakout above the top boundary trendline of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern but is now on track to close below it and within the consolidation range.
Attempting to Break Up yet Remains in Consolidation Range
So far, Thursday’s test of the 100-Day EMA with a day’s low of 1,925 has held up but further signs of strength are needed. Gold briefly dropped below the 100-Day line earlier in the session on Thursday but managed to close strong, back above it and near the high of the day. The 100-Day EMA is now at 1,940.
Further Signs of Strength are Needed
Further signs of strength are needed to indicate whether yesterday’s low completes the retracement or further tests will occur. This week’s candlestick pattern is set to close as a bullish doji hammer. Next week an upside breakout signal will occur on a move above the high at 1,971, and the breakout is confirmed on a daily close above that high. Following a move above that high the next weekly resistance levels are 1,973, 1,983, and 1,985. A subsequent daily close above each price level will confirm strength, otherwise some resistance might be seen again around those levels.
If Lows Tested Again
If lower prices occur before a continuation higher the two potential support zones are around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,912, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,894. The 200-Day EMA was tested as support with a double bottom in the first quarter of this year price reversed higher from there.
Uptrend Intact
The current retracement in gold is a test of support around previous high swing high of 1,960 from early-February. So far, the retracement is normal and healthy for the uptrend. Consolidation has been occurring at the 50% retracement area as well as the 100-Day EMA. Notice that there is a greater distance between the 100-Day EMA and 200-Day than what was seen in February. It reflects an improving trend. Once this retracement is complete, all signs are that gold should continue higher.
Gold held above $1,950 an ounce on Friday after gaining 0.7% in the previous session, benefiting mainly from the dollar’s weakness as the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday.
Daily bullish
4H Bullish
34min Bullish
Gold is mostly traded on the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The standard future contract is 100 troy ounces. Gold is an attractive investment during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Half of the gold consumption in the world is in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry. The biggest producers of gold are China, Australia, United States, South Africa, Russia, Peru and Indonesia. The biggest consumers of gold jewelry are India, China, United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. The gold prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our gold prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.
Comment:
Ethereum staking rises
Staking, which was originally thought to be a risky proposition owing to withdrawal ambiguity, got a boost after the Shapella Upgrade permitted users to unstake their ETH. This confidence led them to restake their ETH after an initial burst of withdrawals.
Though incidents like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit on crypto behemoth Coinbase over the latter’s staking program resulted in an increase in withdrawals in June, the overall sentiment has been in favor of staking and earning yields.
Worrisome developments
Amidst all the hype, there were some underlying concerns. As per Glassnode, the number of new addresses locking 32 ETH in Ethereum’s smart contract dipped steadily in June after spiking to an all-time high (ATH) value of 12.86k in the first week.
Volatility plummets
Staking, which was originally thought to be a risky proposition owing to withdrawal ambiguity, got a boost after the Shapella Upgrade permitted users to unstake their ETH. This confidence led them to restake their ETH after an initial burst of withdrawals.
Though incidents like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit on crypto behemoth Coinbase over the latter’s staking program resulted in an increase in withdrawals in June, the overall sentiment has been in favor of staking and earning yields.
Worrisome developments
Amidst all the hype, there were some underlying concerns. As per Glassnode, the number of new addresses locking 32 ETH in Ethereum’s smart contract dipped steadily in June after spiking to an all-time high (ATH) value of 12.86k in the first week.
Volatility plummets
Comment:
Fed Chair. Powell reiterated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that interest rates will rise further and that he wouldn’t take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all, but noted that a recession in the US is not the most likely case. Nvidia was down by over 2% and Advanced Micro Devices by 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. The Fed is also due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks, and more details on Basel III Endgame and changes to bank supervision will be in the spotlight.
The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.
The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.
Comment:
The US economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in Q1 2023, well above 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecasts of 1.4%. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.
Comment:
Wall Street Ends in the Green
The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
Comment:
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd Session
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
Comment:
Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open
bullish
Compared to today’s price, Ethereum could gain 299.19% by 2025 if ETH reaches the upper price target.
Ethereum's 200-day SMA will rise in the next month and will hit $ 1,783.64 by Aug 22, 2023. Ethereum's short-term 50-Day SMA is estimated to hit $ 1,930.41 by Aug 22, 2023.
bullish
Compared to today’s price, Ethereum could gain 299.19% by 2025 if ETH reaches the upper price target.
Ethereum's 200-day SMA will rise in the next month and will hit $ 1,783.64 by Aug 22, 2023. Ethereum's short-term 50-Day SMA is estimated to hit $ 1,930.41 by Aug 22, 2023.
Comment:
trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Comment:
Trade open
Bought today more .New Buy Signal
Bought today more .New Buy Signal
Comment:
masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
Comment:
Filing Reveals Donald Trump Holds $250,000-$500,000 Worth Of Ethereum
Comment:
DXY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.
Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.
Oil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.
Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.
The staking inflows delivered a positive net staking balance. On Friday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a surplus of 64,890 ETH, equivalent to $122.78 million. Deposits totaled 120,880 ETH versus withdrawals of 56,000 ETH.
According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 0.282 million ETH, equivalent to approximately $0.536 billion.