So I did jump into a brief short and got my weekly goal from 4160 to about 4148. Once we hit there we settled in with a 6hr downtrend, which is a higher low and is now also violated. While I feel that this downward momentum is long overdue and should continue, my trading strategy is to trade on trends and currently every single trend is violated except the 30m and 1hr, and those are considerably oversold if they were the funnels to take us lower.
I still think on a medium term we are headed to 4000 at least, trends will dictate we have at least a brief rally here before we can head lower. So with my macroeconomic assessment in conflict with my trading strategy, I think I will stay out for the moment.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I mean, it is probably a decent bet to go long here at 4138, although not enough for me to get a warm and fuzzy over it. I think a meltdown is just long overdue and could come in with a vengeance.
The Short Position;
I'd like to see a technical bounce to get a 30m uptrend at least as a short position. Not sure that will happen, but if it does, I plan to be ready.
Economic Data;
Yellen is speaking this morning, then FOMC Minutes and EBC Legarde later this afternoon. All could be market movers.
Overall, my sentiment today (From 4135) is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bullish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan!
I still think on a medium term we are headed to 4000 at least, trends will dictate we have at least a brief rally here before we can head lower. So with my macroeconomic assessment in conflict with my trading strategy, I think I will stay out for the moment.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I mean, it is probably a decent bet to go long here at 4138, although not enough for me to get a warm and fuzzy over it. I think a meltdown is just long overdue and could come in with a vengeance.
The Short Position;
I'd like to see a technical bounce to get a 30m uptrend at least as a short position. Not sure that will happen, but if it does, I plan to be ready.
Economic Data;
Yellen is speaking this morning, then FOMC Minutes and EBC Legarde later this afternoon. All could be market movers.
Overall, my sentiment today (From 4135) is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bullish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan!
Comment:
Not reading anything about cuts, and honestly nothing really groundbreaking in the Minutes. Definitely saw a reduction in volume throughout the day.
Comment:
Movement as expected. I went short at 4164 this morning at a lower high 1hr. Looking to see how that works out, though the Nvidia story could cause some issues.
I am also looking to go Long on the 6E, just waiting for trends to begin to turn
I am also looking to go Long on the 6E, just waiting for trends to begin to turn