ES - Week 34 (21-25 Aug 23) - Auction Market Theory Bias Read
Utilizing Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, and Weekly VWAPs alongside the 1st standard deviation to determine whether price is balanced or imbalanced. This aids in establishing a wider bias, providing context for intraday trading decisions.
Beginning with the yearly vwap perspective:
- Price has accepted back into Prior Value Area, indicating a current rotational-down state.
A return to retest the PVAH may be interesting as a short opportunity.
- Price pierced inside Developing Value Area. If acceptance occurs within this balanced zone, current state will also be rotational-down.
Additionally, a retest around the DVAH@4419 region could hold significance, coinciding with the 0.618 level.
The Quarterly Prior and Developing Value Areas are in disagreement.
We're Imbalanced up the Prior Value Area (although retesting it now) and Imbalanced down on Developing Value Area.
Acceptance below PVAH@4358 area would put the current state in agreement both for Prior and Developing Value Areas for a bearish bias.
Monthly's bearish bias aligns within both Prior and Developing Value Areas.
Current state is Imbalanced Down on both Prior and Developing Value Areas.
The current retest of DVAL -2 standard deviation presents a potential inflection point for a short opportunity, while a retest of DVAL could be even more enticing.
Weekly's Developing Value Area has recently started. Thus, solely based on the Prior Value Area, price is Imbalanced down.
Nonetheless, we're at an inflection point. The PVAL retest could offer a favorable short opportunity. Alternatively, a breakout followed by an upside retest might swiftly steer the sentiment bullish.
Conclusion
The bias remains notably bearish across the board. Even if today brings an upward move, the bulls face a considerable challenge in steering this situation toward a turnaround.
Beginning with the yearly vwap perspective:
- Price has accepted back into Prior Value Area, indicating a current rotational-down state.
A return to retest the PVAH may be interesting as a short opportunity.
- Price pierced inside Developing Value Area. If acceptance occurs within this balanced zone, current state will also be rotational-down.
Additionally, a retest around the DVAH@4419 region could hold significance, coinciding with the 0.618 level.
The Quarterly Prior and Developing Value Areas are in disagreement.
We're Imbalanced up the Prior Value Area (although retesting it now) and Imbalanced down on Developing Value Area.
Acceptance below PVAH@4358 area would put the current state in agreement both for Prior and Developing Value Areas for a bearish bias.
Monthly's bearish bias aligns within both Prior and Developing Value Areas.
Current state is Imbalanced Down on both Prior and Developing Value Areas.
The current retest of DVAL -2 standard deviation presents a potential inflection point for a short opportunity, while a retest of DVAL could be even more enticing.
Weekly's Developing Value Area has recently started. Thus, solely based on the Prior Value Area, price is Imbalanced down.
Nonetheless, we're at an inflection point. The PVAL retest could offer a favorable short opportunity. Alternatively, a breakout followed by an upside retest might swiftly steer the sentiment bullish.
Conclusion
The bias remains notably bearish across the board. Even if today brings an upward move, the bulls face a considerable challenge in steering this situation toward a turnaround.