ES1! Analysis Update into OPEX, FED, and EOY
ES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish:
+8% shift of structure upwards and price rediscovery from March 2022 levels. A period of inside candles preceding May 8,2023 reflected support at sigma 2.
Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) is now approaching 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This is a high area of interest as PA reverts to mean because: it is where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)// Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9786//
Price at time of study 4483.25// Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Neutral to risk on
+8% shift of structure upwards and price rediscovery from March 2022 levels. A period of inside candles preceding May 8,2023 reflected support at sigma 2.
Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) is now approaching 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This is a high area of interest as PA reverts to mean because: it is where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)// Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9786//
Price at time of study 4483.25// Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Neutral to risk on
Comment:
SPX 6WK: (Watching the August 2, 2021 candle as a benchmark for support to auction higher AND watching August 1, 2022 as a benchmark for rejection to auction lower// Close at EOD June 21, 2022: 4365.69
Comment:
June 25, 2023 Notes pre-week: Further support for acute downside prior to price rediscovery upside uses seasonality composites and rebalancing strats publicly disclosed during Q2 (ie JPM Collar); which may or may not influence front running executions/volume. Key levels for 4319.25, 4155.25, 3888.50 respectively. (Please see April 14,2023 published study for derivation of upper and lower KL)