S&P 500 ES1! Technical Analysis Monthly / Weekly / Daily

## Bottom Line

- Weekly closed with a massive bear bar on its low.
- That low is going to break.
- Likely outcome of this week will be a Doji Candle
- ...meaning there will be a strong rally after the low is broken
- A rally should top out between 4,457.25 and **4,492** (Thursday Settlement is in the middle at 4,475)
- My expectation this week is we will be going up before going down on a daily basis


## IF/THEN

- **IF:** they push it all the way down to 4,350 area on Monday,
**THEN :** I expect that we will go to the top of the rally zone after that.
---> **IF:** It gaps up at the open and rally’s overnight Sunday,
---> **THEN:** Will likely have another bear bar day, another daily session dump, ending in a daily bear bar
---> **IF:** It gaps down and heads lower overnight
---> **THEN:** Will Likely Rally in the Monday regular session

**IF:** It collapses below 4,350 area
**THEN:** I expect it to just be a vertical nosedive market with everyone scrambling to adjust their risk and get positioned.

**IF:** Bulls can break above **4,492**.
**THEN:** I expect that they will test the bottom of the prior week candle at 4,572.



## Containment

- Monthly:
- **4,260** and 4,600 (Outside)
- 4350 and 4540 (inside)
- Weekly: **4,260** and ****4,472

## Targets

**Downside:**

- Monthly: **4340**-4350
- Weekly: Same
- Daily: **4340** (Same as monthly. Trend Start on daily chart)

**Upside:**

- Monthly 4492 (low of prior month), **4580** (50% retracement of This Month assuming they hit the 1.618 target, The Monthly Chop Zone, Open of Prior Month)
- Weekly 4473

If it gets to **4580**, I figure for another major down move after that. This takes us into March for sure

Primary weekly resistance is not at any monthly level except the prior month low.

Bouncing at the 1.618 extension puts us at a higher low

## Best Levels to Trade
- Short: 4,475 - 4,492
- Long: 4340 - 4350

## Charts
Monthly

Weekly

Daily

Containment Zones:
Monthly

Weekly

Daily Targets and Traps

Levels on Intraday

Levels are rarely exact in the S&P. You want to buy below support levels and sell above resistance levels. The algos know they can generally make profits running obvious stops, so they do. When trading these instruments keep a flexible open mind, be ready to take a stop out, don't be afraid to try again, and think in terms of price zones more than levels.

Comment:

We got the overnight move up.
We fell through the support 4350 and boy, if we didn't just head straight to 4220.
I thought these levels were kind of broad. Didn't figure on smashing through them all in one day.
Volatility made 4220 very painful to hold on to, but you absolutely crushed it today if you got that position and held on

Comment:

Daily Doji. Bull not bear.
But, the is the power of if/then statements heading into the trading day and thinking in terms of price zones.

Very good outcome for me today. However, being able to chart/predict it is very different than being able to trade it. Each individual discretionary trader needs to figure out (a) how to develop their prediction model and (b) how to trade based on it.

Trade closed: target reached:

Mission accomplished. lol