June 7 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
ATH; Gap Above; Gaps and VPOCs Below; Absence Of Stronger Sellers.
Technical:
Risk-on sentiment in all major indices. Despite the Nasdaq-100 surpassing it’s all-time high, its moves have become more muted, signaling a rotation from the bigger technology- and innovation-driven companies to energy, transportation, financials, small caps, and so on.
Monday came after an end-of-week flush and a close at the highs. Monday’s overnight action was supported with buyers lifting into the open.
Tuesday’s open seemed exhausted, with some heavy offers developing at and above $3075. Later, the S&P 500 traded down to $3050, an area of resting liquidity, before closing higher.
Wednesday’s session squeezed higher into $3111, came down to some resting bids at $3090, and then buyers closed the range, again.
Friday opened on a massive gap, exacerbated by the May jobs report. The session ended up balancing at and around the $3200 strike.
Putting everything together, the picture points to further upside, but it’s obvious that cracks are beginning to form as indicated by the mechanical, short-term momentum-driven activity going on. As long as value shifts higher and liquidations fail to generate any follow through, then the bullish narrative remains.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
NFIB Small Business Optimism; JOLTS Survey; Wholesale Trade; CPI; PPI; Initial Claims; Import Prices; University of Michigan Sentiment Survey; FOMC Meeting.
Fundamental:
Absent a second wave and geopolitical turmoil, momentum will push markets higher. bloom.bg/2Y8lX3Z
Despite government measures, COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on Latin America. bit.ly/3gYVIFO
Canada adds 290,000 jobs as restrictions on business are loosened. reut.rs/30gkj3a
The U.S. economy added jobs in May with the jobless rate falling to 13.3%. reut.rs/2YaLbij
The Senate loosened the rules small businesses must follow when applying for PPP. bit.ly/3dF0G8t
The personal care, restaurant, entertainment, and leisure industries are recovering. bit.ly/2BFkvyB
Non-white communities realize un-equal recovery, worsened by low liquidity and savings. wapo.st/2MC11Ny
YouTube’s growth paints a bullish picture for Google parent Alphabet. bit.ly/2MyYcNb
GOOGL
GOOG
Corporate bond yield spreads reflect expectations of a business cycle upturn. bit.ly/30hR9jY
Easing of capital outflows from ASEAN markets reduced liquidity pressures. bit.ly/2zZWxhb
China’s manufacturing returned to trend, but the consumer sector is still lagging. bloom.bg/2XAVjBI
Repression, or forced lending to the government at low rates, may be bullish. bloom.bg/3gXvDH7
By the end of 2020, earnings will be higher than they were in 2019. bloom.bg/3gXvDH7
Valuation methods pin fair value for the S&P 500 Index between $2,200 and $2,800. bit.ly/30fJJ0w
Low rates rationalize the outperformance of growth companies. bit.ly/2A6cSAE
Fed’s balance sheet expansion may slow down inflation. bit.ly/2UbG14r
Expensive stocks have not reached levels seen during the tech bubble. bloom.bg/2z87FrB
Eurozone corona-bonds would help euro-denominated assets outperform. bloom.bg/378Mbr2
OPEC+ agrees to one-month extension of output cuts. reut.rs/2MBjRVa
Ford is evaluating the need for office space. reut.rs/2MzzfRF
F
Remote work to spark a housing boom in the suburbs and smaller cities. on.wsj.com/2XEHQZI
Amazon plans summer sale for June 22 to jumpstart sales after demand hit. cnb.cx/2z88vVh
AMZN
‘Nuclear Option’: U.S. could cut Beijing from the dollar payment system. bit.ly/2AJnt4I
Sentiment: 34.6% Bullish, 26.6% Neutral, 38.9% Bearish as of 5/31/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 4, 239, 083, 647 as of 6/6/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 45.2% as of 6/6/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
SPXL
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
TQQQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Dow Jones (YM):
DIA
DJI
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
DBO
USL
Natural Gas (NG):
UNG
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
ATH; Gap Above; Gaps and VPOCs Below; Absence Of Stronger Sellers.
Technical:
Risk-on sentiment in all major indices. Despite the Nasdaq-100 surpassing it’s all-time high, its moves have become more muted, signaling a rotation from the bigger technology- and innovation-driven companies to energy, transportation, financials, small caps, and so on.
Monday came after an end-of-week flush and a close at the highs. Monday’s overnight action was supported with buyers lifting into the open.
Tuesday’s open seemed exhausted, with some heavy offers developing at and above $3075. Later, the S&P 500 traded down to $3050, an area of resting liquidity, before closing higher.
Wednesday’s session squeezed higher into $3111, came down to some resting bids at $3090, and then buyers closed the range, again.
Friday opened on a massive gap, exacerbated by the May jobs report. The session ended up balancing at and around the $3200 strike.
Putting everything together, the picture points to further upside, but it’s obvious that cracks are beginning to form as indicated by the mechanical, short-term momentum-driven activity going on. As long as value shifts higher and liquidations fail to generate any follow through, then the bullish narrative remains.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
NFIB Small Business Optimism; JOLTS Survey; Wholesale Trade; CPI; PPI; Initial Claims; Import Prices; University of Michigan Sentiment Survey; FOMC Meeting.
Fundamental:
Absent a second wave and geopolitical turmoil, momentum will push markets higher. bloom.bg/2Y8lX3Z
Despite government measures, COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on Latin America. bit.ly/3gYVIFO
Canada adds 290,000 jobs as restrictions on business are loosened. reut.rs/30gkj3a
The U.S. economy added jobs in May with the jobless rate falling to 13.3%. reut.rs/2YaLbij
The Senate loosened the rules small businesses must follow when applying for PPP. bit.ly/3dF0G8t
The personal care, restaurant, entertainment, and leisure industries are recovering. bit.ly/2BFkvyB
Non-white communities realize un-equal recovery, worsened by low liquidity and savings. wapo.st/2MC11Ny
YouTube’s growth paints a bullish picture for Google parent Alphabet. bit.ly/2MyYcNb
GOOGL
GOOG
Corporate bond yield spreads reflect expectations of a business cycle upturn. bit.ly/30hR9jY
Easing of capital outflows from ASEAN markets reduced liquidity pressures. bit.ly/2zZWxhb
China’s manufacturing returned to trend, but the consumer sector is still lagging. bloom.bg/2XAVjBI
Repression, or forced lending to the government at low rates, may be bullish. bloom.bg/3gXvDH7
By the end of 2020, earnings will be higher than they were in 2019. bloom.bg/3gXvDH7
Valuation methods pin fair value for the S&P 500 Index between $2,200 and $2,800. bit.ly/30fJJ0w
Low rates rationalize the outperformance of growth companies. bit.ly/2A6cSAE
Fed’s balance sheet expansion may slow down inflation. bit.ly/2UbG14r
Expensive stocks have not reached levels seen during the tech bubble. bloom.bg/2z87FrB
Eurozone corona-bonds would help euro-denominated assets outperform. bloom.bg/378Mbr2
OPEC+ agrees to one-month extension of output cuts. reut.rs/2MBjRVa
Ford is evaluating the need for office space. reut.rs/2MzzfRF
F
Remote work to spark a housing boom in the suburbs and smaller cities. on.wsj.com/2XEHQZI
Amazon plans summer sale for June 22 to jumpstart sales after demand hit. cnb.cx/2z88vVh
AMZN
‘Nuclear Option’: U.S. could cut Beijing from the dollar payment system. bit.ly/2AJnt4I
Sentiment: 34.6% Bullish, 26.6% Neutral, 38.9% Bearish as of 5/31/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 4, 239, 083, 647 as of 6/6/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 45.2% as of 6/6/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
SPXL
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
TQQQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Dow Jones (YM):
DIA
DJI
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
DBO
USL
Natural Gas (NG):
UNG
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Comment:
Sentiment survey entry updated 6/6/2020.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
