We have now more convincingly broken .5 resistance, making .618 at $2930 the next step in this retrace of the whole down move.
There is a previously tested & successfully defended support at $2850 from Feb. 28th (that we possibly just bounced off of after hours) and twice tested resistance from March 10th at $2885. I have $2875 as more or less the middle of both of these. We seem to have hit a slight resistance just now on that $2850 and I would expect $2875-2885 to act as the next resistance before meeting .618 at $2930.
A rising wedge is being created that comes to a point in early May.
On April 3rd the point of control of the fixed range volume profile from the beginning of the crash moved down from $3050 to $2500, where it has remained since.
Previously, the price had first retraced to .382 March 26th, then corrected back to .236 by the 29th, and then went back to challenge the .382 again the 30th, before being pushed back one final time to the .236 April 1st, upon which it consolidated an entire week until finally breaking out to the upside April 5th, breaking the point of control and cleanly breaking through the .382 that had acted as such strong resistance twice.
The current leg up appears to be in two urges: a 5 move wave up from the swing low, with an abc correction, and another 5 move wave up. Of this second 5 move wave up, the most recent 5th cycle of this wave appears to (maybe, just maybe) have been completed after having met resistance at the previously tested $2850- (meaning we could now expect a small abc correction before more upside?) however it could also have been just a slight bump in the road and we'll actually extend a bit further up before finishing and triggering the next abc correction (perhaps at the stronger $2875-$2885 resistance). This could either make or break the rising wedge we have currently.
I would like the point of control to come back up to meet us before we see another big reversal in direction. Perhaps as the .618 or even .786 are contested, and around either of which I'd expect some consolidation as we contemplate breaking through or bouncing off to trigger more upside or downside (this would also continue the pattern of steadily decreasing volatility). We could continue consolidating up to the .618 within the rising wedge, consolidate, then reverse back down. Or if we break out -upwards- of the rising wedge we could continue to the .786 before having to contemplate a reversal, or hell, even more upside, I'm trying to keep an open mind here.
a few possible scenarios/thoughts:
a.) was the whole trip down was an elliot 5 wave, this trip back up is an abc correction, perhaps implying another 5 waves back down (would mean some pretty serious downside)
b.) are we currently on phase 3 of a 5 wave back up from bottom? (drawing this in my head leads us to the .786)
A couple thoughts on our current situation:
We've all known well in advance earnings this week would be abysmal, but it does appear to be hard for this upward movement to continue in the face of it (WFC and other banks taking a dive in spite of the rest of the economy trudging upwards through the snow) Will abysmal earnings release the last of the steam that seems to be fading out of this upward move- at which point we begin our descent back down? Or are the abysmal earnings expected enough, and not important enough to cause a sell off in the face of certainty that these companies will eventually be back up once this all blows over.
On the other hand hospitalizations appear to be flattening in the worst affected parts of the world, NYC, Italy, Spain, and some widely publicized disease models are starting to chill out on their projections of total deaths. Is this due to social distancing? is the plateau actually just a reporting bias as we've now fully extended our testing ability and can't really increase it/ finally caught up from all the under testing we have done previously? Deaths keep increasing. The next few days/weeks will tell us. This is optimism that can help continue our drive back up, we now realize the danger we face is finite, and feel more confident the world isn't ending for these companies we hold stock in and they'll at least eventually be back on top of the world again.
If hospitalizations/cases ARE in fact decreasing, and it's not simply a bias of our testing capability, deaths should follow within a week or two. Will this make us optimistic and encourage us to reopen our economy- at which point we could be opening ourselves up to wave 2 of the virus. There's also at least 2 strains of the virus in circulation, and I think a lack of cross immunity (recovering from 1 strain granting you immunity to the 1 but not the other) could be responsible for the cases in which we've seen someone test positive, recover, then test positive again. Also with time should we expect the virus to mutate again?
Also, the big hotspots like NYC may be leveling off, but won't it be progressing now to the next set of hotspots? NOLA? Florida? Remember when Washington was the hotspot? Things change quickly, and Florida has a perfect-storm type combination of millions of uninsured poor, a lot of elderly people (and in close quarters at that- in their own city , retirement homes, gated communities), and have been very late and lax in their response measures.
The vibrations in the air that I am feeling is that people are starting to realize this will have an impact on our lives over the course of the rest of the year. Even if our optimism is well placed and deaths end up far below previous predictions of ~200,000; it seems we are starting to come to the slow realization that this is something we may have to contend with and adapt our lives to until a vaccine is made available. I don't see mass gatherings like concerts coming back soon, nor cruise lines nor Disney world. There's the idea of checking people for antibodies for the virus to ensure they're immune and allowing those people to go back to work, and potentially partake in those events- but could the US pull something so advanced off? With millions uninsured and the rest probably not capable of paying for that kind of test I'm not sure how feasible this could be, but perhaps it may be the only option, people have to eat, we HAVE to reopen for business somehow.
The US being what it is, unable to provide for the healthcare of our citizens, I don't expect us to be able to antibody test our whole working populace, maybe some of the most important industries like food (smithfields gotta reopen, man) especailly ones that are getting high profile coverage (yeah right you think smithfields is the really the only brand with workers who are positive? what are we gonna do, close all meat production for two weeks?? ). Perhaps we'll provide antibody tests selectively in high profile scenarios like these (like how quarantines started a month early in the high profile early hot spot New Rochelle , or how we only made the very first cruise ships quarantined, then let the rest unboard with just "screening" , then started not even letting them come to port once we were in full fear! ), or we'll just wait a couple weeks and just reopen stuff we closed assuming people must have recovered by now (probably the most realistic and necessary scenario if we want to keep food in the grocery stores).
I am excited to look back on this in a few weeks and see how it all played out, and continue updating as we go along.
There is a previously tested & successfully defended support at $2850 from Feb. 28th (that we possibly just bounced off of after hours) and twice tested resistance from March 10th at $2885. I have $2875 as more or less the middle of both of these. We seem to have hit a slight resistance just now on that $2850 and I would expect $2875-2885 to act as the next resistance before meeting .618 at $2930.
A rising wedge is being created that comes to a point in early May.
On April 3rd the point of control of the fixed range volume profile from the beginning of the crash moved down from $3050 to $2500, where it has remained since.
Previously, the price had first retraced to .382 March 26th, then corrected back to .236 by the 29th, and then went back to challenge the .382 again the 30th, before being pushed back one final time to the .236 April 1st, upon which it consolidated an entire week until finally breaking out to the upside April 5th, breaking the point of control and cleanly breaking through the .382 that had acted as such strong resistance twice.
The current leg up appears to be in two urges: a 5 move wave up from the swing low, with an abc correction, and another 5 move wave up. Of this second 5 move wave up, the most recent 5th cycle of this wave appears to (maybe, just maybe) have been completed after having met resistance at the previously tested $2850- (meaning we could now expect a small abc correction before more upside?) however it could also have been just a slight bump in the road and we'll actually extend a bit further up before finishing and triggering the next abc correction (perhaps at the stronger $2875-$2885 resistance). This could either make or break the rising wedge we have currently.
I would like the point of control to come back up to meet us before we see another big reversal in direction. Perhaps as the .618 or even .786 are contested, and around either of which I'd expect some consolidation as we contemplate breaking through or bouncing off to trigger more upside or downside (this would also continue the pattern of steadily decreasing volatility). We could continue consolidating up to the .618 within the rising wedge, consolidate, then reverse back down. Or if we break out -upwards- of the rising wedge we could continue to the .786 before having to contemplate a reversal, or hell, even more upside, I'm trying to keep an open mind here.
a few possible scenarios/thoughts:
a.) was the whole trip down was an elliot 5 wave, this trip back up is an abc correction, perhaps implying another 5 waves back down (would mean some pretty serious downside)
b.) are we currently on phase 3 of a 5 wave back up from bottom? (drawing this in my head leads us to the .786)
A couple thoughts on our current situation:
We've all known well in advance earnings this week would be abysmal, but it does appear to be hard for this upward movement to continue in the face of it (WFC and other banks taking a dive in spite of the rest of the economy trudging upwards through the snow) Will abysmal earnings release the last of the steam that seems to be fading out of this upward move- at which point we begin our descent back down? Or are the abysmal earnings expected enough, and not important enough to cause a sell off in the face of certainty that these companies will eventually be back up once this all blows over.
On the other hand hospitalizations appear to be flattening in the worst affected parts of the world, NYC, Italy, Spain, and some widely publicized disease models are starting to chill out on their projections of total deaths. Is this due to social distancing? is the plateau actually just a reporting bias as we've now fully extended our testing ability and can't really increase it/ finally caught up from all the under testing we have done previously? Deaths keep increasing. The next few days/weeks will tell us. This is optimism that can help continue our drive back up, we now realize the danger we face is finite, and feel more confident the world isn't ending for these companies we hold stock in and they'll at least eventually be back on top of the world again.
If hospitalizations/cases ARE in fact decreasing, and it's not simply a bias of our testing capability, deaths should follow within a week or two. Will this make us optimistic and encourage us to reopen our economy- at which point we could be opening ourselves up to wave 2 of the virus. There's also at least 2 strains of the virus in circulation, and I think a lack of cross immunity (recovering from 1 strain granting you immunity to the 1 but not the other) could be responsible for the cases in which we've seen someone test positive, recover, then test positive again. Also with time should we expect the virus to mutate again?
Also, the big hotspots like NYC may be leveling off, but won't it be progressing now to the next set of hotspots? NOLA? Florida? Remember when Washington was the hotspot? Things change quickly, and Florida has a perfect-storm type combination of millions of uninsured poor, a lot of elderly people (and in close quarters at that- in their own city , retirement homes, gated communities), and have been very late and lax in their response measures.
The vibrations in the air that I am feeling is that people are starting to realize this will have an impact on our lives over the course of the rest of the year. Even if our optimism is well placed and deaths end up far below previous predictions of ~200,000; it seems we are starting to come to the slow realization that this is something we may have to contend with and adapt our lives to until a vaccine is made available. I don't see mass gatherings like concerts coming back soon, nor cruise lines nor Disney world. There's the idea of checking people for antibodies for the virus to ensure they're immune and allowing those people to go back to work, and potentially partake in those events- but could the US pull something so advanced off? With millions uninsured and the rest probably not capable of paying for that kind of test I'm not sure how feasible this could be, but perhaps it may be the only option, people have to eat, we HAVE to reopen for business somehow.
The US being what it is, unable to provide for the healthcare of our citizens, I don't expect us to be able to antibody test our whole working populace, maybe some of the most important industries like food (smithfields gotta reopen, man) especailly ones that are getting high profile coverage (yeah right you think smithfields is the really the only brand with workers who are positive? what are we gonna do, close all meat production for two weeks?? ). Perhaps we'll provide antibody tests selectively in high profile scenarios like these (like how quarantines started a month early in the high profile early hot spot New Rochelle , or how we only made the very first cruise ships quarantined, then let the rest unboard with just "screening" , then started not even letting them come to port once we were in full fear! ), or we'll just wait a couple weeks and just reopen stuff we closed assuming people must have recovered by now (probably the most realistic and necessary scenario if we want to keep food in the grocery stores).
I am excited to look back on this in a few weeks and see how it all played out, and continue updating as we go along.
Comment:
Comment:
Thursday, April 16th
Still within the rising wedge. Futures just broke us sharply out of a pennant that had formed on the consolidation (and oh man what a candle)
the volume profile POC of both our up move & the whole down move have come up to meet price, starting to set the stage for a reversal. My money says not quite yet, we want to touch that .618 and see how it feels before we head back down.
Still within the rising wedge. Futures just broke us sharply out of a pennant that had formed on the consolidation (and oh man what a candle)
the volume profile POC of both our up move & the whole down move have come up to meet price, starting to set the stage for a reversal. My money says not quite yet, we want to touch that .618 and see how it feels before we head back down.
Comment:
Thursday, April 16th
Pretty wild gap up on the 4hr, blowing through resistance at 2885. Feels like it really wants to test that .618 so bad... maybe even before the weekend. Weekends are perfect for big moves- like our eventual reversal. Lots of time for news to develop - like maybe dailys deaths continuing to increase despite daily new cases flattening. PS wouldn't daily new cases flattening be expected as we have fully extended our testing capability and have finally caught up on all that previous undertesting? - just a thought
Pretty wild gap up on the 4hr, blowing through resistance at 2885. Feels like it really wants to test that .618 so bad... maybe even before the weekend. Weekends are perfect for big moves- like our eventual reversal. Lots of time for news to develop - like maybe dailys deaths continuing to increase despite daily new cases flattening. PS wouldn't daily new cases flattening be expected as we have fully extended our testing capability and have finally caught up on all that previous undertesting? - just a thought
Comment:
Comment:
Monday, April 20th
Friday the 17th saw us hit up against the 2875 resistance after gapping up over the 2850 line Thursday EOD/AH. Over the weekend and into today has been confluence underneath the 2875 resistance, and then drooping off.
Sweet light texas crude took a sharp dive today. Futures contracts for may delivery went almost $40 negative due to an oversupply and worries of storage costs. Many have felt oil prices to be the leading commodity behind the coronavirus crash, catalyzed by the saudi-russian price/production war. June/July contracts are possibly being propped up by oil ETS like USO - which alone holds almost a quarter of all june WTI futures -
Moving higher on lower volume, RSI bumping up just into the 60 level support for the entire downtrend, I'm expecting a pullback soon, but we might wanna test that $293 out real quick first just to see how it feels
Friday the 17th saw us hit up against the 2875 resistance after gapping up over the 2850 line Thursday EOD/AH. Over the weekend and into today has been confluence underneath the 2875 resistance, and then drooping off.
Sweet light texas crude took a sharp dive today. Futures contracts for may delivery went almost $40 negative due to an oversupply and worries of storage costs. Many have felt oil prices to be the leading commodity behind the coronavirus crash, catalyzed by the saudi-russian price/production war. June/July contracts are possibly being propped up by oil ETS like USO - which alone holds almost a quarter of all june WTI futures -
Moving higher on lower volume, RSI bumping up just into the 60 level support for the entire downtrend, I'm expecting a pullback soon, but we might wanna test that $293 out real quick first just to see how it feels
Comment:
Comment:
Wednesday, April 22nd
Yesterday we dropped out of the rising wedge that had the trend of this retrace upwards as its base. This trendline is now resistance that we may backtest.
$2730 was strong, previously tested support that we bounced off of as we fell out of the wedge.
News today:
Oil still weak but futures contracts for june bounced backed a bit after Mays dipped almost $40 negative before finally closing around ~$10 Tuesday. Congress expanding small business loans by half a billion. Lots of earnings reports continuing this week.
Yesterday we dropped out of the rising wedge that had the trend of this retrace upwards as its base. This trendline is now resistance that we may backtest.
$2730 was strong, previously tested support that we bounced off of as we fell out of the wedge.
News today:
Oil still weak but futures contracts for june bounced backed a bit after Mays dipped almost $40 negative before finally closing around ~$10 Tuesday. Congress expanding small business loans by half a billion. Lots of earnings reports continuing this week.
Comment:
Comment:
Thursday, April 23rd
Continued running right along the old rising wedge, the support & trendline of the up move that has now turned into resistance. Finally came to a head between that & the down trendline formed from all time highs to the high of our upmove April 17th. two weeks of choppy bouncing back and forth with no real movement, lets see if theres a big break out tomorrow/monday.
in the news:
lots of oil etfs liquidating, OIL OILD OILU - UCO doing reverse splits, I think USO as well now too is scheduled for one, maybe liquidation on those guys coming up
remdesivir's trial results not great, GILD crashes &brings spy down with it - coincidentally just as it came to meet the downtrend resistance & backtest of the old wedge, what a coincidence. excited to see how tomorrow plays, I have a feeling it could stay pretty neutral and leave the big decision for the weekend and give us our breakout/down sunday night/ monday morning.
Continued running right along the old rising wedge, the support & trendline of the up move that has now turned into resistance. Finally came to a head between that & the down trendline formed from all time highs to the high of our upmove April 17th. two weeks of choppy bouncing back and forth with no real movement, lets see if theres a big break out tomorrow/monday.
in the news:
lots of oil etfs liquidating, OIL OILD OILU - UCO doing reverse splits, I think USO as well now too is scheduled for one, maybe liquidation on those guys coming up
remdesivir's trial results not great, GILD crashes &brings spy down with it - coincidentally just as it came to meet the downtrend resistance & backtest of the old wedge, what a coincidence. excited to see how tomorrow plays, I have a feeling it could stay pretty neutral and leave the big decision for the weekend and give us our breakout/down sunday night/ monday morning.
Comment:
2850 was indeed a strong resistance, and we bounced off it, wave 5 of the urge completed? ABC correction to come now?
Rising wedge maintained, volatility saw a slight spike, but if we continue consolidating within the rising wedge it will continue it's slump. Today was a sharp downside retraction after hitting that resistance, i'd expect sideways to more upside in the following days to get us up to that .618, but maybe the triple-tested resistance/support at 2875 will be too much for it.
Current events:
We had a short sharp and face retracement, with some optimistic mood as we've realized the world is not ending and we can see light at the end of the tunnel. So we've gone through stage /one - incredible fear in face of the uncertainty brought on by a global pandemic - to stage two - some optimism as we see the "light at the end of the tunnel", the world's not ending just yet - to stage three - oh fuck this is something we're going to have to deal with now for the next year, huh? Earnings are abysmal, some bankruptcies are imminent, fraud in a few Chinese companies, I have a feeling we're gonna be testing the lows again within the next few months.