Since the market is closed tomorrow, the first tiny bubble finishes at 1 pm eastern time. The markets looked relatively weak after seeing such a stellar job number, good job, Trump! I am looking for next week to roll over a little bit. I just tested out a Fibonacci fan, which we see around the 3111ish area looks like support. It also played the expected move on the /ES, so closing at 1 pm tomorrow that level is possible.
Going to next week with an expected move on the SPX of 80 points, we closed at 3130 on Thursday. Assuming we grind down to 3111 area, that would imply a 20 point gap down for the SPX if we were to open Sunday at 6 pm. However, we trade overnight. By the time of the 9:30 open, we could be looking at down 30 handles—3080 at the open with an expected move of 80 points. I am looking to see the 3000 print by the end of the week. We have a gravity point of 2983 as strong support.
July 17th expected move: 130 points. SPX at the moment is 3130, which would point this week to end at 3000. Keep in mind. Ending the week prior at around 3000. Look for this week to start off down, but saved by the 61.8% Fibonacci at 2930. Bottoming here look to rally 70 points to finish the week at 3000 on the money with the expected move.
So that is my outlook between now to the end of the 17th. 3111/3060/3000/2983, then from there, look out below! After the 17th, it's hard to predict; however, I don't think we fall on our face. 2930 held back on June 15th, and we hugged that level in the middle of May before this rally. But I think we can touch it for sure before the 17th but bounce hard off it.
I would love to see us fall after the 17th, but I think we will remain in this box for at least the month of July. Let's look at the end of the month and see how it goes.
Going to next week with an expected move on the SPX of 80 points, we closed at 3130 on Thursday. Assuming we grind down to 3111 area, that would imply a 20 point gap down for the SPX if we were to open Sunday at 6 pm. However, we trade overnight. By the time of the 9:30 open, we could be looking at down 30 handles—3080 at the open with an expected move of 80 points. I am looking to see the 3000 print by the end of the week. We have a gravity point of 2983 as strong support.
July 17th expected move: 130 points. SPX at the moment is 3130, which would point this week to end at 3000. Keep in mind. Ending the week prior at around 3000. Look for this week to start off down, but saved by the 61.8% Fibonacci at 2930. Bottoming here look to rally 70 points to finish the week at 3000 on the money with the expected move.
So that is my outlook between now to the end of the 17th. 3111/3060/3000/2983, then from there, look out below! After the 17th, it's hard to predict; however, I don't think we fall on our face. 2930 held back on June 15th, and we hugged that level in the middle of May before this rally. But I think we can touch it for sure before the 17th but bounce hard off it.
I would love to see us fall after the 17th, but I think we will remain in this box for at least the month of July. Let's look at the end of the month and see how it goes.