LegendSince

Dollar Index - Pending Sell-off

Short
LegendSince Updated   
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Based on my last post, I was neutral overall but still wanted to see a minor bullish increase upto the old volume imbalance located @ 106.600 which we got. The current market conditions mean that it’s a bit more tricky to guess a bias long term without more market information as all the dollar has done was sweep buyside before sweeping sellside.

The outlook on news this week is going to be interesting as we start of the week with 3 gold folders but dropping into Tuesday is a different kettle of fish. In the cards, we have got 4 gold folders and a whopping 8 red folders which tells me that implied volatility is prevalent on that day. On the Wednesday, we have AUD CPI numbers releasing so there’s a strong chance of manipulation before the real moves come. 3 red folders with 5 gold folders.

To note, New Zealand and Australia will be having a bank holiday on Wednesday with Italian bank holiday shortly following ahead in the Thursday. 3 red folders on that day with 1 gold folder

Friday is another big day with 6 red folders and 2 minor gold folders and with policy rates being the talk of the day, expect movement!

Days to lookout for will be

- Tuesday (Expect high volatility)
- Wednesday (Medium to high volatility)
- Friday (Expect High volitility)

With that being mentioned, for the past 4 months, dollar index has been in a buy programme but the monthly buyside liquidity still has not been attacked @ 108.348, near to the lowest displacement fair value gap. Unless turmoil in Israel and Iran occurs or for that fact, any country, we could see a dramatic swing in all markets.

Trend is your friend until otherwise but in the cards for a short term retracement to 105 is not illogical to paint before continuing higher, running on short term buy stops.

Please have a look at my index analysis as I am looking out for bullish price action; ES, NQ, YM and even forex pairs, specifically: Cable and Euro. In turn, I want to see dollar respect the old liquidity void @ 106.500 and continue to make lower lows and higher lows.

105.849 is my first point of call with 105.700 being my mid week bearish terminus.
My philosophy is simple...

Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.

This includes;

- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!

The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.

Credits;

- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Trade closed: target reached:
Analysis was done on the intraday timeframe of 60 mins but unfortunately Tradingview has posted the weekly timeframe which negates all intraday analysis.
However, my short term bearish target of 105.700 has been met during Tuesdays AM session so i will consider this projection to be a success

Disclaimer

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