The upward momentum on the DXY after January’s positive non-farm payroll print on the 3rd of February seems to have subsided for the time being. The DXY managed to test its 50-day MA and touch the green 23.6% Fibo retracement level at 104 but these resistance levels have held their ground. The 23.6 % Fibo also coincides satisfyingly with the neckline of the previous upward trendline as well as the blue 50% Fibo retracement level.
There was a gap down at market open this morning ahead of the highly anticipated US CPI print for January which is negative for the greenback. Last week Friday the BLS quietly revised the CPI higher for four of the past five months, with one month unchanged so always take CPI results with a pinch of salt (CPI is a lie but it influences investor sentiment). The supposed CPI for January is expected to print 6.2%, down from 6.4% in December, yoy.
My track record forecasting scenarios from data prints aren’t great but this is how I see the lay of the land; an in line with expectations or a print lower than 6.2% yoy will add fuel to the Fed’s self-proclaimed narrative that they have beat inflation. This scenario will be dollar negative and will spur risk-on investor sentiment. This scenario will allow the DXY to fall below the support at 103 (covid peak) and drop lower towards the critical support at 101.843, blue 61.8% Fibo retracement level).
On the flip side, a print at or above 6.4% yoy will have investors running back to the safe haven dollar with their tails between their legs. This scenario is expected to push the DXY above the resistance level of 104 and higher towards 106.00. (I don’t expect a fair CPI print if they can just quietly revise the numbers higher at a later stage without spooking the markets thus, I’m not in favour of this scenario materializing today).
Technical indicators: The buy signal on the daily MACD seems to be rolling over which is dollar negative but there is a fair degree of bullish divergence on the RSI which is keeping me on my toes. I’m leaning towards the first scenario I mentioned earlier. Over the longer-term (the remainder of 2023) I’m very much bullish on the dollar and I think the bottom for the DXY is in at 100.90 I believe we will see the dollar milkshake theory play out this year when the economic realities start collecting their debt.
There was a gap down at market open this morning ahead of the highly anticipated US CPI print for January which is negative for the greenback. Last week Friday the BLS quietly revised the CPI higher for four of the past five months, with one month unchanged so always take CPI results with a pinch of salt (CPI is a lie but it influences investor sentiment). The supposed CPI for January is expected to print 6.2%, down from 6.4% in December, yoy.
My track record forecasting scenarios from data prints aren’t great but this is how I see the lay of the land; an in line with expectations or a print lower than 6.2% yoy will add fuel to the Fed’s self-proclaimed narrative that they have beat inflation. This scenario will be dollar negative and will spur risk-on investor sentiment. This scenario will allow the DXY to fall below the support at 103 (covid peak) and drop lower towards the critical support at 101.843, blue 61.8% Fibo retracement level).
On the flip side, a print at or above 6.4% yoy will have investors running back to the safe haven dollar with their tails between their legs. This scenario is expected to push the DXY above the resistance level of 104 and higher towards 106.00. (I don’t expect a fair CPI print if they can just quietly revise the numbers higher at a later stage without spooking the markets thus, I’m not in favour of this scenario materializing today).
Technical indicators: The buy signal on the daily MACD seems to be rolling over which is dollar negative but there is a fair degree of bullish divergence on the RSI which is keeping me on my toes. I’m leaning towards the first scenario I mentioned earlier. Over the longer-term (the remainder of 2023) I’m very much bullish on the dollar and I think the bottom for the DXY is in at 100.90 I believe we will see the dollar milkshake theory play out this year when the economic realities start collecting their debt.
