Weekly FX Wrap: a thorough ‘PR’ workout for currency markets
DXY
As alluded to in the title of this week’s FX review, the ‘pandemic resurgence’ and ‘paring of risk’ to the point of position liquidation at times have been primary drivers of overall direction and sentiment, but the Dollar has also benefited at the expense of the Euro in wake of the ECB essentially confirming expectations for ‘policy recalibration’ in December. To recap, COVID-19 cases and deaths are still rising at a rapid rate with many countries seeing exponential growth in the number of new infections on a daily basis to consecutive record highs, and regrettably little sign that the current wave is breaking. Meanwhile, although vaccine trials have restarted after pauses due to problems with earlier clinical tests, official approval from the various medical bodies and distribution remains some way off, to leave Governments with little alternative aside from tightening restrictions further or even reverting to almost full states of lockdown. Moreover, some health experts are pointing to a fresh variant of the virus in Europe, and while the US is also suffering new peaks of contamination in some states the situation is deemed less severe, relatively speaking. Hence, the Greenback has regained a strong safe-haven bid with the index hovering just shy of 94.000 and a 94.105 best vs 92.784 at the other end of a wide spectrum.
EUR
In stark contrast to the buoyant Buck, Euro depreciation due to the coronavirus and contagion have been exacerbated by the aforementioned downbeat and dovish tone of the latest post-ECB statement and press conference from President Lagarde. In short, official guidance was ‘enhanced’ by the addition of a new bullet stating that ‘in the current environment of risks clearly tilted to the downside, the GC will carefully assess the incoming information, including the dynamics of the pandemic, prospects for a rollout of vaccines and developments in the exchange rate’. Subsequently, the ECB head kicked off the presser by noting that the recovery is losing more momentum than envisaged, with recent data and surveys pointing to significant softening in Q4 activity. As a result, the entire GC believes it is necessary to take action via a tweak of instruments at the next meeting, and Eur/Usd is languishing towards the bottom of a 1.1865-1.1650 range.
CAD
The Loonie was also subject to broad risk aversion and policy recalibration from the BoC that will now target the longer end of the curve within its QE remit, but a sharp decline in crude prices compounded losses relative to its US counterpart within 1.3390-1.3130 parameters more than anything else.
GBP
Sterling has largely tracked swings in the market mood and mostly gloom due to COVID-19 developments that are threatening a circuit breaker as a potential attempt to avoid reverting to complete national shutdown, while Brexit updates have been almost as conflicting as ever depending whether the UK or EU are summing up the current state of trade negotiations, though the bottom line appears to be more progress. Indeed, the FT quotes an official from Brussels saying that a lot of drafting has been done on the LPF, but the key issues remain unresolved and by inference that means state aid and the real point of contention concerning access to fishing waters. In sum, a deal is still elusive and it will be down to the wire if enough concessions can be made to reach an agreement before the next Summit let alone the date that leaves it too late for legal text to be drawn up and ratified for the transition deadline. Cable is holding 1.2900+ status, but well off peaks in the high 1.3000 zone, but Eur/Gbp nearer 0.9000 than just over 0.9100.
JPY
Nothing expected and unforeseen from the BoJ, while Japanese data has been mixed and the Yen continues to dovetail with the Dollar as prime safety destination. Therefore, Usd/Jpy has been fairly rangebound and mostly capped by 104.00-50 trade inside a band up to circa 105.05 with a Fib at the half round number proving pivotal vs heavy option expiry interest on the downside.
AUD/NZD
The Aussie and Kiwi have both been very whippy between 0.7157-0.7003 and 0.6723-0.6597 respective bands vs their US peer, but the Aud/Nzd cross veering south from 1.0672 to 1.0597 at one stage and still leaning against 1.0600 ahead of the RBA and a widely if not universally expected 15 bp rate cut – see the Newsquawk Research Suite for a full preview of the November policy meeting.
DXY
As alluded to in the title of this week’s FX review, the ‘pandemic resurgence’ and ‘paring of risk’ to the point of position liquidation at times have been primary drivers of overall direction and sentiment, but the Dollar has also benefited at the expense of the Euro in wake of the ECB essentially confirming expectations for ‘policy recalibration’ in December. To recap, COVID-19 cases and deaths are still rising at a rapid rate with many countries seeing exponential growth in the number of new infections on a daily basis to consecutive record highs, and regrettably little sign that the current wave is breaking. Meanwhile, although vaccine trials have restarted after pauses due to problems with earlier clinical tests, official approval from the various medical bodies and distribution remains some way off, to leave Governments with little alternative aside from tightening restrictions further or even reverting to almost full states of lockdown. Moreover, some health experts are pointing to a fresh variant of the virus in Europe, and while the US is also suffering new peaks of contamination in some states the situation is deemed less severe, relatively speaking. Hence, the Greenback has regained a strong safe-haven bid with the index hovering just shy of 94.000 and a 94.105 best vs 92.784 at the other end of a wide spectrum.
EUR
In stark contrast to the buoyant Buck, Euro depreciation due to the coronavirus and contagion have been exacerbated by the aforementioned downbeat and dovish tone of the latest post-ECB statement and press conference from President Lagarde. In short, official guidance was ‘enhanced’ by the addition of a new bullet stating that ‘in the current environment of risks clearly tilted to the downside, the GC will carefully assess the incoming information, including the dynamics of the pandemic, prospects for a rollout of vaccines and developments in the exchange rate’. Subsequently, the ECB head kicked off the presser by noting that the recovery is losing more momentum than envisaged, with recent data and surveys pointing to significant softening in Q4 activity. As a result, the entire GC believes it is necessary to take action via a tweak of instruments at the next meeting, and Eur/Usd is languishing towards the bottom of a 1.1865-1.1650 range.
CAD
The Loonie was also subject to broad risk aversion and policy recalibration from the BoC that will now target the longer end of the curve within its QE remit, but a sharp decline in crude prices compounded losses relative to its US counterpart within 1.3390-1.3130 parameters more than anything else.
GBP
Sterling has largely tracked swings in the market mood and mostly gloom due to COVID-19 developments that are threatening a circuit breaker as a potential attempt to avoid reverting to complete national shutdown, while Brexit updates have been almost as conflicting as ever depending whether the UK or EU are summing up the current state of trade negotiations, though the bottom line appears to be more progress. Indeed, the FT quotes an official from Brussels saying that a lot of drafting has been done on the LPF, but the key issues remain unresolved and by inference that means state aid and the real point of contention concerning access to fishing waters. In sum, a deal is still elusive and it will be down to the wire if enough concessions can be made to reach an agreement before the next Summit let alone the date that leaves it too late for legal text to be drawn up and ratified for the transition deadline. Cable is holding 1.2900+ status, but well off peaks in the high 1.3000 zone, but Eur/Gbp nearer 0.9000 than just over 0.9100.
JPY
Nothing expected and unforeseen from the BoJ, while Japanese data has been mixed and the Yen continues to dovetail with the Dollar as prime safety destination. Therefore, Usd/Jpy has been fairly rangebound and mostly capped by 104.00-50 trade inside a band up to circa 105.05 with a Fib at the half round number proving pivotal vs heavy option expiry interest on the downside.
AUD/NZD
The Aussie and Kiwi have both been very whippy between 0.7157-0.7003 and 0.6723-0.6597 respective bands vs their US peer, but the Aud/Nzd cross veering south from 1.0672 to 1.0597 at one stage and still leaning against 1.0600 ahead of the RBA and a widely if not universally expected 15 bp rate cut – see the Newsquawk Research Suite for a full preview of the November policy meeting.