1. I look first at a daily chart and determine what is the trend. For the US dollar Index this is quite an interesting juncture - it has been in a down trend since September 2022, but has recently rallied from 100.69 to about 104.00. Is this just a correction higher or could this be a change of trend?
2. To answer that question I look at longer term charts. Firstly, the monthly chart and I note that the market has recently bounced from its 20-month ma and that the long-term trend for the Dollar remains bullish.
Then I look at the weekly chart and I immediately notice a key week reversal from a couple of weeks ago and I also note that the 103.96 level is a key level of resistance, not only is it the 23.6% retracement of the move down from the September peak, but also the high seen in 2020.
3. So the break of down trend, the key week reversal and the bullish long-term trend suggest that upside pressure for the US Dollar may be attempting to reassert.
4. I go back to the daily chart, and I note the relationship of price to the moving averages (I use 20, 55, 200 day simple moving averages). I note that the market recently tested and held the 20-day ma around 102.50. That both DMI and RSI are neutral, and that cloud resistance also comes in around 104.00. So clearly the 104.00 region on the chart is tough resistance. What I am doing is noting the support and resistance levels.
5. My analysis leads me to the conclusion that the market is in consolidation mode short term, but for now while above the 20-day ma we are willing to give the upside the benefit of the doubt as we have recently seen a key week reversal below the market.
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The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
2. To answer that question I look at longer term charts. Firstly, the monthly chart and I note that the market has recently bounced from its 20-month ma and that the long-term trend for the Dollar remains bullish.
Then I look at the weekly chart and I immediately notice a key week reversal from a couple of weeks ago and I also note that the 103.96 level is a key level of resistance, not only is it the 23.6% retracement of the move down from the September peak, but also the high seen in 2020.
3. So the break of down trend, the key week reversal and the bullish long-term trend suggest that upside pressure for the US Dollar may be attempting to reassert.
4. I go back to the daily chart, and I note the relationship of price to the moving averages (I use 20, 55, 200 day simple moving averages). I note that the market recently tested and held the 20-day ma around 102.50. That both DMI and RSI are neutral, and that cloud resistance also comes in around 104.00. So clearly the 104.00 region on the chart is tough resistance. What I am doing is noting the support and resistance levels.
5. My analysis leads me to the conclusion that the market is in consolidation mode short term, but for now while above the 20-day ma we are willing to give the upside the benefit of the doubt as we have recently seen a key week reversal below the market.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
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