Dow EW5 near complete; pullback before upside triangle breakout
Adjusting my idea for what might lie ahead for the Dow. Forgive my many variations, but our picture is certainly confusing and some of us have already been whipsawed and blindsided twice:
Dow is in an extended wave 5, approaching the upper edge of a symmetric triangle. a weakening Bullish formation forming over past 9 days, albeit on low volume. Breakout from this channel is unlikely during the current wave impulse, with high resistance, low daily volume but should it occur could ignite a recovery wave;
Although this 5th impulse wave has exceeded my wave model's forecast expectation of 25076, it is progressively weakening (plateau formation)) and either at or very near a short-term top, with strong resistance above 25240.
Elliott theory projects possible extensions of Wave 5 based on height of wave 1+3, measured up from bottom of 4th wave; this estimation shown on chart in color grid yields possible high of 25238 at Fibo .618 for this wave impulse, likely occurring this week between 18-20 July (Wave 5 top). NB: Wave 5 closed Tues at 0.50 Fibo for the impulse- and reached 25155 intraday within target shell, for a possible near-term top;
Market is ripe for a pullback soon and anything could start a tumble, however in looking at the Bullish price action, bullish impulsive waveforms, and considering solid fundamentals and decent earnings, a distinct possibility of only a modest 0.618 Fibo pullback to a possible wave C low at strong support of 24474 seems more likely than another deep cut, but should it break through support at 23800 will likely hold.
Look back at April/May waves shows this pattern of a modest pullback from 5/22 -5/29, with a wave low ending near .618 retrace on 5/29 (Wave A); the shallow pullback was followed by the strong June impulse that carried index to 25400.
By theorem of alternating behavior of waves, we had a sharp, deep wave in June following May's short, shallow pullback; so, next week in July may present a similar short, shallow pullback to near strong support at 24620, the 0.50 Fibo retracement, if index holds within shell bottom look for 24474 floor.
Notably, B Waves have shown an expanded pattern - rising higher after each correction in channel as market chugs toward recovery. Given good economic outlook the correction may end in August after churning for six months with recovery going into the US midterm elections.
It might be prudent to use any significant pullback to cover shorts and position for longs. If the alternating pattern holds and the symmetric triangle resolves in bullish manner, sidelined cash will pour into the market in August and drive it towards recovery. August often is a pivot month, reversing prior year's trend. Fibo grid suggests possible high in August of 25760, if Bullish impulse resolves in uptrend and leads to correction recovery.
Notable article:
www.scienceinvesting...ies/dow-industrials/
Dow is in an extended wave 5, approaching the upper edge of a symmetric triangle. a weakening Bullish formation forming over past 9 days, albeit on low volume. Breakout from this channel is unlikely during the current wave impulse, with high resistance, low daily volume but should it occur could ignite a recovery wave;
Although this 5th impulse wave has exceeded my wave model's forecast expectation of 25076, it is progressively weakening (plateau formation)) and either at or very near a short-term top, with strong resistance above 25240.
Elliott theory projects possible extensions of Wave 5 based on height of wave 1+3, measured up from bottom of 4th wave; this estimation shown on chart in color grid yields possible high of 25238 at Fibo .618 for this wave impulse, likely occurring this week between 18-20 July (Wave 5 top). NB: Wave 5 closed Tues at 0.50 Fibo for the impulse- and reached 25155 intraday within target shell, for a possible near-term top;
Market is ripe for a pullback soon and anything could start a tumble, however in looking at the Bullish price action, bullish impulsive waveforms, and considering solid fundamentals and decent earnings, a distinct possibility of only a modest 0.618 Fibo pullback to a possible wave C low at strong support of 24474 seems more likely than another deep cut, but should it break through support at 23800 will likely hold.
Look back at April/May waves shows this pattern of a modest pullback from 5/22 -5/29, with a wave low ending near .618 retrace on 5/29 (Wave A); the shallow pullback was followed by the strong June impulse that carried index to 25400.
By theorem of alternating behavior of waves, we had a sharp, deep wave in June following May's short, shallow pullback; so, next week in July may present a similar short, shallow pullback to near strong support at 24620, the 0.50 Fibo retracement, if index holds within shell bottom look for 24474 floor.
Notably, B Waves have shown an expanded pattern - rising higher after each correction in channel as market chugs toward recovery. Given good economic outlook the correction may end in August after churning for six months with recovery going into the US midterm elections.
It might be prudent to use any significant pullback to cover shorts and position for longs. If the alternating pattern holds and the symmetric triangle resolves in bullish manner, sidelined cash will pour into the market in August and drive it towards recovery. August often is a pivot month, reversing prior year's trend. Fibo grid suggests possible high in August of 25760, if Bullish impulse resolves in uptrend and leads to correction recovery.
Notable article:
www.scienceinvesting...ies/dow-industrials/
Trade active:
A .618 Fibo retracement = 25237; .786 = 25394, look for reversal pattern confirmation before you plunge in this bull charged farther than I expected. Wave 5 extension is visible on the chart- very boolish secondary upwave.
Expect upside breakout from symm-triangle after a shallow 05 -.618 Fibo retrace to support between 245 - 247 range. Could break lower to S3 at 23800, seems like a recovery is forming however. Always look for reversal confirmation before entering trades else you're just guessing (usually wrong!)
Expect upside breakout from symm-triangle after a shallow 05 -.618 Fibo retrace to support between 245 - 247 range. Could break lower to S3 at 23800, seems like a recovery is forming however. Always look for reversal confirmation before entering trades else you're just guessing (usually wrong!)
Trade active:
Futures point to shallow pullback today on tariiff noise; notice SPX forming head & shoulders, left shoulder 7-13, head on 7-18, possibly get the right shoulder 7-23?
Trade active:
Yeah- still a bit early to enter looks like they picking it up could still run higher
Trade active:
We got a hanging man reversal confirmed buying puts good luck!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanging_man_(candlestick_pattern)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanging_man_(candlestick_pattern)
Trade active:
Going down
Trade active:
Head & Shoulders intraday short entry now!
Trade active:
This is fifth wave in symmetric triangle. Expect pullback to test 24400 support at rising base trendline. If it reaches down to trendline test expect bottom ~24240.
Pulldown may be subject to possible bull trap test of triangle top trendline; former support becoming resistance around 25127 at 0.50 Fibo (although we saw this Friday).
Symmetric triangles are tricky beasts and can go longer than you expect but we're close to the apex and I suspect a strong breakout topside may come in August.
SPX has shown a well-defined rising channel and pullback there might be less, possibly ~2746, give or take a little. The bull wave coming off lows for SPX & NDX will be stronger than Dow.
Good luck!
Pulldown may be subject to possible bull trap test of triangle top trendline; former support becoming resistance around 25127 at 0.50 Fibo (although we saw this Friday).
Symmetric triangles are tricky beasts and can go longer than you expect but we're close to the apex and I suspect a strong breakout topside may come in August.
SPX has shown a well-defined rising channel and pullback there might be less, possibly ~2746, give or take a little. The bull wave coming off lows for SPX & NDX will be stronger than Dow.
Good luck!
Trade closed: stop reached:
Monday AM did have early VIX^ but now it's not going that way it appears to form cup & handle for higher price action. Will pub a new idea shortly, Good luck!