US markets are closed today so I thought I would slide on over to the German index and give it the 1.618 treatment.
I was not disappointed.
The 1.618 is the hallmark retracement of my favourite pattern, the Head and Shoulders.
Why?
Because it’s usually the most accurate of all reversal patterns both bullish and bearish.
These particular 1.61.8 retracements are special interest to me because of the line in the sand that was drawn by the US president Donald Trump back in 2018.
This marked a series of retracements from head and shoulder structures that are still playing out today.
To start, I’ll go back to the 2018 UN meeting where President Trump warned Germany and UN leaders that they are becoming dependant on Russia for energy.
Enter the first 1.618 bear Head and shoulder
The bottom of 2018/2019 bear market also left a 1.618 retracement via a bullish H&S pattern with a key support level you see the 2022 markets as a major resistance level.
In this retracement we see Trump was back at UN right at the test of the neckline which began the retracement to the 2018 bottom.
Notice how the target for the 1.618 was reached at the same line that Russia invaded Ukraine. 🤔
Moving along.
A less significant, but still relevant 1.618 played out in the shoulder that marked the first gap down of the covid crash in 2020 and connects with other smaller 1.618. and who’s neckline also marks the 50% retracement of the 2020-21 bull market rally.
It also marks Trumps 2nd speech at UN and the Ukraine Documents.
Next Exhibit Please!
Now, even Covid bottom is now undressing its role in the 1.618 retracements with an inverted head and shoulder that marks the bottom of the covid recession.
And again we see the significant strong resistance and ultimately the top of the 1.618 retracements.
Zooming in, we see the other shoulder of the covid Inv H&S was a 1.618 retracement as governments scrambled to deal with covid, russia aggression and looming supply chain issues and energy problems.
Now is when things start to correlate with the other 1.618 retracements.
A top in global markets is formed with a rather volatile h&S at the top, but plays through exactly as Russia Invades Ukraine and is also the 2018 Bottoms 1.618!
And Finally the Inverse H&S forming now that I present in this idea.
From a macro perspective I don’t see this last inverted H&S validating. This setup would require positive news from US markets on inflation and to complete would mean an end to Russian aggression or sanctions on oil and gas and advert a humanitarian disaster this winter.
Failure to validate this head and shoulders would lead the economy deeper into a recession and become just a shoulder for the next inverse 1.618.
If it invalidates, then see S&P 500 1337 MAGA STRUCTURE that will instead follow through.
Thanks for Reading. Please boost if you enjoy the article and follow @SPYvsGME for more market perspective from the >>GRID<<
I was not disappointed.
The 1.618 is the hallmark retracement of my favourite pattern, the Head and Shoulders.
Why?
Because it’s usually the most accurate of all reversal patterns both bullish and bearish.
These particular 1.61.8 retracements are special interest to me because of the line in the sand that was drawn by the US president Donald Trump back in 2018.
This marked a series of retracements from head and shoulder structures that are still playing out today.
To start, I’ll go back to the 2018 UN meeting where President Trump warned Germany and UN leaders that they are becoming dependant on Russia for energy.
Enter the first 1.618 bear Head and shoulder
The bottom of 2018/2019 bear market also left a 1.618 retracement via a bullish H&S pattern with a key support level you see the 2022 markets as a major resistance level.
In this retracement we see Trump was back at UN right at the test of the neckline which began the retracement to the 2018 bottom.
Notice how the target for the 1.618 was reached at the same line that Russia invaded Ukraine. 🤔
Moving along.
A less significant, but still relevant 1.618 played out in the shoulder that marked the first gap down of the covid crash in 2020 and connects with other smaller 1.618. and who’s neckline also marks the 50% retracement of the 2020-21 bull market rally.
It also marks Trumps 2nd speech at UN and the Ukraine Documents.
Next Exhibit Please!
Now, even Covid bottom is now undressing its role in the 1.618 retracements with an inverted head and shoulder that marks the bottom of the covid recession.
And again we see the significant strong resistance and ultimately the top of the 1.618 retracements.
Zooming in, we see the other shoulder of the covid Inv H&S was a 1.618 retracement as governments scrambled to deal with covid, russia aggression and looming supply chain issues and energy problems.
Now is when things start to correlate with the other 1.618 retracements.
A top in global markets is formed with a rather volatile h&S at the top, but plays through exactly as Russia Invades Ukraine and is also the 2018 Bottoms 1.618!
And Finally the Inverse H&S forming now that I present in this idea.
From a macro perspective I don’t see this last inverted H&S validating. This setup would require positive news from US markets on inflation and to complete would mean an end to Russian aggression or sanctions on oil and gas and advert a humanitarian disaster this winter.
Failure to validate this head and shoulders would lead the economy deeper into a recession and become just a shoulder for the next inverse 1.618.
If it invalidates, then see S&P 500 1337 MAGA STRUCTURE that will instead follow through.
Thanks for Reading. Please boost if you enjoy the article and follow @SPYvsGME for more market perspective from the >>GRID<<
