Beware the biggest bubble of all times! Part 2
Ray Dalio made a post about how and why he thinks we are going towards a paradigm shift.
What I know is this bubble is going to violently collapse and it will be biblical.
Jeff Besos is already planning his way off this planet.
What I heard is every rich person was planning how he will manage his bunker, security guards etc, OR ways off the planet.
The end of the world is coming. This stupid over-consumption uber inflation money printing bubble is going to explode into a giant nuclear firework.
I don't know when it is coming but people are preparing, and it now appears imminent. Not something that will happen in "a long time" but in our lifetimes, in the next 5 years even.
So for this occasion I am making my regular end of the world post.
You got such clear signs that we are at the peak:
Cryptocurrencies...
IPOs go up 750% in 3 days...
(All going to zero <3)
There is talk around gold but isn't the price at historical highs even inflation adjusted?
I do not know enough about it to comment and I am not interested in researching it.
The madness is not ending. Good, the more they push the bubble the faster the end will come.
Make it explode! In the past century the economy/world has had a paradigm shift, and of course no one notices it, if things have been a certain way their whole life they view it as "normal". Totally unable to think outside of the box or get in other people shoes, totally unable to understand how anything came to be...
"A great point makes is that paradigms -- by definition -- are things that have gone on for long enough that people think they will never end. He touches on examples like debt driving asset prices higher and low volatility leading to high volatility."
End the FED make something new and also a new US currency and a new world currency (I guess the world currency can be gold, better than a country currency btw the USD became the world standard because the US scammed every one the only reason it was it was because it was pegged to gold before they removed that, litteral scam, ye the world won't fall for the same trick a second time right?)
The debt cycle system/paradigm I think could work but gee they pushed it so much.
Just greedy idiots. They start a scam that cannot last forever, just their whole lives, who cares what happens next.
All reported once I get out of the simulation. Reeeeport!
Same with energy consumption etc. Human nature: obsessed with reproduction like rabbits, 0 care for the future only short sighted. Perfectly logical.
Every one for themselves when this Titanic sinks. The transition won't be nice and smooth.
I will be very stupid with absolutely nothing been thinken off, nothing prepared, as usual.
Also some political unrest wars / civil wars etc.
I really hope it happens soon so we can be done with it. I hate suspense. The faster a change is made the smoother the transition will be.
So that means less fireworks. I do not have a personal home on the moon or mars so I would rather avoid big fireworks :( Otherwise would enjoy it.
This is the log chart by the way:
BOOM!
What I know is this bubble is going to violently collapse and it will be biblical.
Jeff Besos is already planning his way off this planet.
What I heard is every rich person was planning how he will manage his bunker, security guards etc, OR ways off the planet.
The end of the world is coming. This stupid over-consumption uber inflation money printing bubble is going to explode into a giant nuclear firework.
I don't know when it is coming but people are preparing, and it now appears imminent. Not something that will happen in "a long time" but in our lifetimes, in the next 5 years even.
So for this occasion I am making my regular end of the world post.
You got such clear signs that we are at the peak:
Cryptocurrencies...
IPOs go up 750% in 3 days...
(All going to zero <3)
There is talk around gold but isn't the price at historical highs even inflation adjusted?
I do not know enough about it to comment and I am not interested in researching it.
The madness is not ending. Good, the more they push the bubble the faster the end will come.
Make it explode! In the past century the economy/world has had a paradigm shift, and of course no one notices it, if things have been a certain way their whole life they view it as "normal". Totally unable to think outside of the box or get in other people shoes, totally unable to understand how anything came to be...
"A great point makes is that paradigms -- by definition -- are things that have gone on for long enough that people think they will never end. He touches on examples like debt driving asset prices higher and low volatility leading to high volatility."
End the FED make something new and also a new US currency and a new world currency (I guess the world currency can be gold, better than a country currency btw the USD became the world standard because the US scammed every one the only reason it was it was because it was pegged to gold before they removed that, litteral scam, ye the world won't fall for the same trick a second time right?)
The debt cycle system/paradigm I think could work but gee they pushed it so much.
Just greedy idiots. They start a scam that cannot last forever, just their whole lives, who cares what happens next.
All reported once I get out of the simulation. Reeeeport!
Same with energy consumption etc. Human nature: obsessed with reproduction like rabbits, 0 care for the future only short sighted. Perfectly logical.
Every one for themselves when this Titanic sinks. The transition won't be nice and smooth.
I will be very stupid with absolutely nothing been thinken off, nothing prepared, as usual.
Also some political unrest wars / civil wars etc.
I really hope it happens soon so we can be done with it. I hate suspense. The faster a change is made the smoother the transition will be.
So that means less fireworks. I do not have a personal home on the moon or mars so I would rather avoid big fireworks :( Otherwise would enjoy it.
This is the log chart by the way:
BOOM!
Comment:
According to some people dumb money is close to maxicum confidence.
They have an indicator and it is at peak levels. I do not know how it is calculated.
There is also this:
"A fundamental indicator created by Yardeni Research, the Boom-Bust Barometer, has been “busting” even while stocks reach new highs. The Barometer hit a 52-week low this month even as the S&P 500 hit an all-time high."
And this:
"The Investor’s Intelligence survey of newsletter writers now has a Bull Ratio in the top 5% of all readings in the past 30 years. Such high readings led to poor 1-year returns, with the S&P averaging only 2.3%. Excluding the super-momentum years of 2013 and 2017, that dropped to -1.3%, with risk of -10.9%."
I see alot of people, really lots, bearish, so this surprised me but not that much, I live in an echo chamber. All those bearish people I see (on twitter) they are not your average idiot. It feels like the majority is bearish, but it is the majority in the elite. In the months leading up to 1929 it was the same.
Can't compare Berkshire management to Joe Boris 2017 Bitcoin investor saying the bears have mental issues.
According to that data, dumb money is optimistic for more than 80%.
At some point it becomes literally impossible the price keeps going up (smart money bought way earlier possibly got out and won't get back in, and we are running out of dumb money to buy higher), other than a direct FED intervention.
Do you see alot of bullish comments from the herd?
Do the average shoe shiners laugh at you when you make apocalyptic calls?
Do Robinhood baggies go up and up and up?
Is there a massive bubble in parallel to stocks?
(Like 2000 was accompanied by dotcoms, 2010s/20s are accompanied by cryptos.)
Are all the "indicators" and numbers at peak/bottom levels?
If you answered yes to all of these questions, you are close to a major recession.
An ERA is ending... soon.
(Unless the FED catapults a ton of money to keep number going up but that would be so dumb)
I do not think I want to speculate on this thought, I don't know...
Not until 20k dow maybe if we are at the top, because could bounce there.
I don't think we are at the top, but I don't know how far dumb money can push it... We'll see. Might short it later on, don't want to do it early here.
And my buys in anticipation of suckers rally will depend of where the top is.
Also maybe I'll see some short term (1 day - 2 weeks) bets on the way but I do not focus on indices so much, rather currencies. Indices I'll trade I think, but just the big stuff. Same as dumbcoin.
1 thing is clear to me: Now is not the time to invest in stocks.
It is the dumb money buying time (and you know there is a good reason it is called dumb money).
They have an indicator and it is at peak levels. I do not know how it is calculated.
There is also this:
"A fundamental indicator created by Yardeni Research, the Boom-Bust Barometer, has been “busting” even while stocks reach new highs. The Barometer hit a 52-week low this month even as the S&P 500 hit an all-time high."
And this:
"The Investor’s Intelligence survey of newsletter writers now has a Bull Ratio in the top 5% of all readings in the past 30 years. Such high readings led to poor 1-year returns, with the S&P averaging only 2.3%. Excluding the super-momentum years of 2013 and 2017, that dropped to -1.3%, with risk of -10.9%."
I see alot of people, really lots, bearish, so this surprised me but not that much, I live in an echo chamber. All those bearish people I see (on twitter) they are not your average idiot. It feels like the majority is bearish, but it is the majority in the elite. In the months leading up to 1929 it was the same.
Can't compare Berkshire management to Joe Boris 2017 Bitcoin investor saying the bears have mental issues.
According to that data, dumb money is optimistic for more than 80%.
At some point it becomes literally impossible the price keeps going up (smart money bought way earlier possibly got out and won't get back in, and we are running out of dumb money to buy higher), other than a direct FED intervention.
Do you see alot of bullish comments from the herd?
Do the average shoe shiners laugh at you when you make apocalyptic calls?
Do Robinhood baggies go up and up and up?
Is there a massive bubble in parallel to stocks?
(Like 2000 was accompanied by dotcoms, 2010s/20s are accompanied by cryptos.)
Are all the "indicators" and numbers at peak/bottom levels?
If you answered yes to all of these questions, you are close to a major recession.
An ERA is ending... soon.
(Unless the FED catapults a ton of money to keep number going up but that would be so dumb)
I do not think I want to speculate on this thought, I don't know...
Not until 20k dow maybe if we are at the top, because could bounce there.
I don't think we are at the top, but I don't know how far dumb money can push it... We'll see. Might short it later on, don't want to do it early here.
And my buys in anticipation of suckers rally will depend of where the top is.
Also maybe I'll see some short term (1 day - 2 weeks) bets on the way but I do not focus on indices so much, rather currencies. Indices I'll trade I think, but just the big stuff. Same as dumbcoin.
1 thing is clear to me: Now is not the time to invest in stocks.
It is the dumb money buying time (and you know there is a good reason it is called dumb money).
Comment:
So many times things went down and never back up, but since those disappeared, nearly no one remembers. And so dumb money thinks it never happens. How dumb is that?
They base their idiotic beliefs on "last time they said" and sample sizes of 1.
At best, most of the herd only thinks that what they have seen in their short careers can happen.
When things turn, when ... Bitcoin goes to zero, the dumb money will see what is possible, lose confidence, and change their idiotic beliefs. And get new ones.
Now, they think it is impossible that things go down. They will laugh at you for saying this can happen.
The time to buy will be when it is impossible to convince dumb money that things will get better and go up.
(BTW it is impossible to convince dumb money the price of gold will go up - but it is a necessary condition not a sufficent one)
They base their idiotic beliefs on "last time they said" and sample sizes of 1.
At best, most of the herd only thinks that what they have seen in their short careers can happen.
When things turn, when ... Bitcoin goes to zero, the dumb money will see what is possible, lose confidence, and change their idiotic beliefs. And get new ones.
Now, they think it is impossible that things go down. They will laugh at you for saying this can happen.
The time to buy will be when it is impossible to convince dumb money that things will get better and go up.
(BTW it is impossible to convince dumb money the price of gold will go up - but it is a necessary condition not a sufficent one)
They will laugh at "the idiots that missed the bottom".
Such as here:
Or here:
Personally the FOMO braindead crowd acts as repelant for me.
I just want nothing to do with them regardless of outcome. I feel zero fomo. idc.
Once they all get MoviePass'ed, this is when it will be time to invest.
This is what John Templeton did. He "missed the bottom" (what a noob) I think he bought shares of every company in the 1940s, or around that period.
He got famous for it. If he is such a noob that missed out, how come he is famous and of all the FOMOers and all the knife catchers the only ones we remember is the "I lost everything in the stock market I am selling my car" guy and the "shoe shine boy giving advice" which are both viewed as idiots, not as heroes of success?
I do alot of bottom catching as a short term speculative thing but I am just taking advantage (in my opinion) of FOMO idiots, rekt plebs, breakeven warriors and obvious profit targets.
Don't want to invest long term for a really long time.
When the world explodes I will wait for the dust to settle.
If the Dow gets to 2500 points I might buy but by then maybe the USA are done.
It is possible this time there is more competition and harder to get in as cheap, but for 500 years this could have been the case and has notn, just has gotten easier imo.
My plan: Wait for the apocalypse, wait for the dust to settle, understand how the world works now, and then wait a bit more for confirmation, and then get in.
There always is a very long time to get in while stocks are cheap...