Chart 1:
Looking at the seasonal performance of oil longs taken around this time of year for the previous 2 years, it can be extrapolated that this last week of January coming up is a good time to go long for a swing trade. It can also be observed that there was a W-bottom this time last year and that we’ve just completed a similar W-bottom pattern.
The green channel which reflects the general trend pre-Ukraine war in conjunction with the previous year’s worth of price action transposed to the present time suggests a price target of $95 around mid-February. The biggest obstacles will be the red downtrend channel around $87 and the high pivot from October 2021 at 85.41 which together serve as formidable resistance.
Chart 2:
Chart number two which is below shows that we’ve broken out of a downtrend channel which goes back further than the downtrend channel in chart number one. It also shows that we’ve rejected the Q1 pivot range in the same manner in which we rejected it around this time last year. This is also similar to how we rejected the Q3 pivot range before heading down although of course that was more volatile. These pivot ranges are defined by Mark B. Fisher as the pivot range calculated from the high, low, and close of the first 2 weeks of the year. The suggested entry of 81.64, stop of 79.64, and target of 95 are shown using the long position tool. The entry is last week’s close and the stop is .33% below Thursday’s candle which rejected the pivot range. The .33% stop was calculated as the 5-day ATR multiplied by ten, divided by the close as per my standard protocol.
In Summary:
Target: $95
Entry: $81.64
Stop: $79.64
R/R: 6.68
Here’s a snapshot of Chart 1 before being rearranged by the publishing process:
Looking at the seasonal performance of oil longs taken around this time of year for the previous 2 years, it can be extrapolated that this last week of January coming up is a good time to go long for a swing trade. It can also be observed that there was a W-bottom this time last year and that we’ve just completed a similar W-bottom pattern.
The green channel which reflects the general trend pre-Ukraine war in conjunction with the previous year’s worth of price action transposed to the present time suggests a price target of $95 around mid-February. The biggest obstacles will be the red downtrend channel around $87 and the high pivot from October 2021 at 85.41 which together serve as formidable resistance.
Chart 2:
Chart number two which is below shows that we’ve broken out of a downtrend channel which goes back further than the downtrend channel in chart number one. It also shows that we’ve rejected the Q1 pivot range in the same manner in which we rejected it around this time last year. This is also similar to how we rejected the Q3 pivot range before heading down although of course that was more volatile. These pivot ranges are defined by Mark B. Fisher as the pivot range calculated from the high, low, and close of the first 2 weeks of the year. The suggested entry of 81.64, stop of 79.64, and target of 95 are shown using the long position tool. The entry is last week’s close and the stop is .33% below Thursday’s candle which rejected the pivot range. The .33% stop was calculated as the 5-day ATR multiplied by ten, divided by the close as per my standard protocol.
In Summary:
Target: $95
Entry: $81.64
Stop: $79.64
R/R: 6.68
Here’s a snapshot of Chart 1 before being rearranged by the publishing process: