Crude Oil is Bearish

CL1!

Crude Oil futures marked on the 4h chart

After being neutral the past week due to ranging behavior, CL has just possibly shown its hand on where it is headed to in the short term.

Confluences

• Overall bearish order flow since the summer.
  
• Liquidity grab at the double top (marked with the X line).
  
• Market Structure Shift (MSS) by breaking the short term low at ~87.60.
  
• Retraced into 4h imbalance and rejected it, thus showing it is respecting a premium price and now seeking a discount.
  
• In premium of September 26 - October 9 dealing range as shown by the fibonacci.
  
• Looks like bread-and-butter sell model in the making.
  

Current signs show oil is intending to go lower. I am anticipating at least 81.30 as a target level because there is a liquidity void resting below it.

Trade closed: target reached:

Played out almost exactly as I anticipated. Continuation to 80.00 is likely.

Trade closed: target reached:

CL has broken below 80.00

Comment:

On the Weekly chart it looks like Oil wants to attack 76.25. Major sellside has already been taken so a retracement back to premium on the Daily chart is possible.

TL;DR 76.25 new target, but retracement up to 86.00 possible.

Trade closed: target reached:

76.25 has been attacked. Since it is a previous week low, I will stay on the sidelines until the next setup.