As U.S. markets continue to rally against all odds at the expense of overly eager bears and quite frankly rational investing. Is it finally safe to assume the low is in? Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closing in the red, a lot of positive could be taken away from this week. The point I'll make today is not to get overly bullish. I'll show you why by analyzing CAT, BA, and QQQ.
Where's the Support?
The first chart is Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) on the weekly. Price was strongly rejected at $126.60. Additionally, it is possible that a descending trendline has been established. The focus right now is on support and respecting the downtrend. CAT is a risky buy at these levels, especially with Q1 Fiscal 2020 earnings being reported on Tuesday, April 28. Furthermore, over the last three quarters CAT has failed to meet estimated revenue, and going into Tuesday it's a safe to say that trend will continue.
There is one interesting characteristic I will note on CAT. The consolidation between September 2019 and March 2020 is characteristic of a Wyckoff distribution (see below). Could CAT be a leading indicator or just one of many sectors that have been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic? Bias: Bearish.
Buy the Dip?
Boeing Company (BA) rallied just over 100% after capitulating at $89 per share. Congratulations if you bought the dip and pat yourself on the back if you sold the top of that dead cat bounce! Yes, I suspect a dead cat bounce and risk of further downside.
The BA chart may be as bearish as it gets as it has slashed through its long term trendline that had been support since 2009. To make things worse, going into the monthly close next week, price is getting rejected at $164.80. This area of resistance is important, as it was previous resistance for a span of two years between February 2015 and December 2016. I would become slightly less bearish if BA can reestablish itself above $164. In the meantime, book profits and continue to sell into rallies. Bias: Bearish.
Fighting the Trend
One of the first lessons I learned trading was that the trend is your friend. The reason why I say this is because in my view next week is set up perfectly for more gains across the board. Reason? Look no further than the Nasdaq Composite.
Above, is the daily view of the PowerShares QQQ Trust, an ETF representing the Nasdaq 100. The QQQ has recently reestablished support within RSI bull market territory. I would be holding off on shorting until weakness is clearly established. Why short into a market full of stocks that have maintained bullish momentum despite the global crisis? Reminder, Tesla, Zoom, Netflix and Amazon are all part of the index. The trend remains intact...for now. Bias: Bullish.
Looking Forward
The market is at a crossroads. What is the trend being established? Are we in a bear market or bull market? As a trader, I try not to get hung up with where we are and focus on where the market is heading. Feeding a bias is a good way to get left behind. Keep an open mind but stick to the principles you established to analyze the market.
This weekend, I have a crypto outlook and semi-conductors outlook. Have a great evening.
Where's the Support?
The first chart is Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) on the weekly. Price was strongly rejected at $126.60. Additionally, it is possible that a descending trendline has been established. The focus right now is on support and respecting the downtrend. CAT is a risky buy at these levels, especially with Q1 Fiscal 2020 earnings being reported on Tuesday, April 28. Furthermore, over the last three quarters CAT has failed to meet estimated revenue, and going into Tuesday it's a safe to say that trend will continue.
There is one interesting characteristic I will note on CAT. The consolidation between September 2019 and March 2020 is characteristic of a Wyckoff distribution (see below). Could CAT be a leading indicator or just one of many sectors that have been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic? Bias: Bearish.
Buy the Dip?
Boeing Company (BA) rallied just over 100% after capitulating at $89 per share. Congratulations if you bought the dip and pat yourself on the back if you sold the top of that dead cat bounce! Yes, I suspect a dead cat bounce and risk of further downside.
The BA chart may be as bearish as it gets as it has slashed through its long term trendline that had been support since 2009. To make things worse, going into the monthly close next week, price is getting rejected at $164.80. This area of resistance is important, as it was previous resistance for a span of two years between February 2015 and December 2016. I would become slightly less bearish if BA can reestablish itself above $164. In the meantime, book profits and continue to sell into rallies. Bias: Bearish.
Fighting the Trend
One of the first lessons I learned trading was that the trend is your friend. The reason why I say this is because in my view next week is set up perfectly for more gains across the board. Reason? Look no further than the Nasdaq Composite.
Above, is the daily view of the PowerShares QQQ Trust, an ETF representing the Nasdaq 100. The QQQ has recently reestablished support within RSI bull market territory. I would be holding off on shorting until weakness is clearly established. Why short into a market full of stocks that have maintained bullish momentum despite the global crisis? Reminder, Tesla, Zoom, Netflix and Amazon are all part of the index. The trend remains intact...for now. Bias: Bullish.
Looking Forward
The market is at a crossroads. What is the trend being established? Are we in a bear market or bull market? As a trader, I try not to get hung up with where we are and focus on where the market is heading. Feeding a bias is a good way to get left behind. Keep an open mind but stick to the principles you established to analyze the market.
This weekend, I have a crypto outlook and semi-conductors outlook. Have a great evening.