Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis
π Technical analysis BTC/USDT
During the corrective movement, the price of Bitcoin reached all three targets from our previous review: the Imbalance 4H zone, the Imbalance 1D zone, and the support level of 57,000.
The recent downward wave in the price of BTC was driven by the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate and the outflow of funds from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Consequently, the price consolidated below the EMA 50 4H line and corrected to the 0.78 Fibonacci level.
In the near future, we anticipate sideways movement with possible rebounds for a retest of the descending trendline resistance. In case of further correction, the next target for the price decline of BTC could be the Imbalance 4H zone at 53,000 - 56,000. Significant volume gaps exist at horizontal trading volume levels in this zone, which need to be filled by trading activity. Additionally, below this zone lie the trendline support, the dynamic support line EMA 200D, and the psychological level of 50,000. If they fail to hold against selling pressure, the price may decline to the next Imbalance 1D zone at 44,000 - 47,000.
For the resumption of growth, Bitcoin's price needs to overcome the dynamic resistance line EMA 50 and consolidate above the descending trendline. In this scenario, the path will open for the price to retest the historical maximum in the area of the significant resistance block at 73,000 - 75,000.
π Bitcoin market global analysis
Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin is still in an upward trend. It's worth reminding that BTC has demonstrated almost uninterrupted growth since 2023. Now, the market needs a correction at least to the 0.38 Fibonacci level, where Bitcoin's price can test the 200-day moving average. Historically, halving events increase investors' risk appetite and shift their focus to altcoins. This is evidenced by the fact that during the last halving, Bitcoin's dominance index reached 57% and then sharply declined. During this period, Bitcoin's price may remain in a sideways movement with high volatility for quite some time.
After the completion of the correction, we expect a gradual resumption of growth, as seen during previous cycles after halving. Above the current all-time high, there are no more resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books. We have a local ascending trendline, relevant since November 2023. Its test could occur around the 75,000 level, confirmed by a significant block of pending orders. Above, in the range of 80,000 - 90,000, lies the global trendline constructed based on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles. There lies the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level as well. The highest trendline is in the range of 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci levels, and its test could start from the 100,000 level.
π Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions
Fear and Greed Index is currently in the neutral zone at 48.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen to $2.156 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance index has decreased to 54.22.
According to the analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, the demand and supply zones are located at the following levels:
π’ Demand Zone: 48,000 - 56,000
π΄ Supply Zone: 70,000 - 80,000
Levels for long positions:
55,000 - major support block
52,000 - retest of the EMA 200D line and trendline
50,000 - psychological support level
Levels for short positions:
70,000 - retest of the resistance trendline
75,000 - major resistance block
80,000 - major resistance block
π Fundamental analysis
The fundamental reasons behind the current decline in Bitcoin are:
- Reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate.
- Outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Selling pressure from Bitcoin miners.
- The prison sentence of Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance.
On April 20, the long-awaited Bitcoin (BTC) halving occurred, resulting in a halving of the block reward and miners' incomes dropping to 14-month lows. Experts believe that the risk of miner capitulation is increasing along with the decline in the price of Bitcoin. If the price continues to fall over the next few days and the decline extends for several weeks, major miners may face the need to initiate large-scale sell-offs to hedge their risks.
On May 1, the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $563.8 million. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) fund managed by the world's largest asset manager BlackRock lost $36.93 million. The outflow of funds for the previous trading day was the highest since January. While many experts view this as the beginning of a bear market, the key on-chain metrics indicate that it is simply a correction and the long-term outlook for the digital asset remains bullish. Long-term holders mostly anticipate further Bitcoin price growth.
π Upcoming Events in the Global Economy
We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:
β€ May 9th, 3:30 PM - US Unemployment Data.
β€ May 15th - US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
β€ June 12th, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates.
β€ July 31st, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates.
π Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:
Our trading indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was:
BTC +10.46%
ETH +12.71%
SOL +14.82%
In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
During the corrective movement, the price of Bitcoin reached all three targets from our previous review: the Imbalance 4H zone, the Imbalance 1D zone, and the support level of 57,000.
The recent downward wave in the price of BTC was driven by the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate and the outflow of funds from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Consequently, the price consolidated below the EMA 50 4H line and corrected to the 0.78 Fibonacci level.
In the near future, we anticipate sideways movement with possible rebounds for a retest of the descending trendline resistance. In case of further correction, the next target for the price decline of BTC could be the Imbalance 4H zone at 53,000 - 56,000. Significant volume gaps exist at horizontal trading volume levels in this zone, which need to be filled by trading activity. Additionally, below this zone lie the trendline support, the dynamic support line EMA 200D, and the psychological level of 50,000. If they fail to hold against selling pressure, the price may decline to the next Imbalance 1D zone at 44,000 - 47,000.
For the resumption of growth, Bitcoin's price needs to overcome the dynamic resistance line EMA 50 and consolidate above the descending trendline. In this scenario, the path will open for the price to retest the historical maximum in the area of the significant resistance block at 73,000 - 75,000.
π Bitcoin market global analysis
Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin is still in an upward trend. It's worth reminding that BTC has demonstrated almost uninterrupted growth since 2023. Now, the market needs a correction at least to the 0.38 Fibonacci level, where Bitcoin's price can test the 200-day moving average. Historically, halving events increase investors' risk appetite and shift their focus to altcoins. This is evidenced by the fact that during the last halving, Bitcoin's dominance index reached 57% and then sharply declined. During this period, Bitcoin's price may remain in a sideways movement with high volatility for quite some time.
After the completion of the correction, we expect a gradual resumption of growth, as seen during previous cycles after halving. Above the current all-time high, there are no more resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books. We have a local ascending trendline, relevant since November 2023. Its test could occur around the 75,000 level, confirmed by a significant block of pending orders. Above, in the range of 80,000 - 90,000, lies the global trendline constructed based on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles. There lies the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level as well. The highest trendline is in the range of 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci levels, and its test could start from the 100,000 level.
π Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions
Fear and Greed Index is currently in the neutral zone at 48.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen to $2.156 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance index has decreased to 54.22.
According to the analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, the demand and supply zones are located at the following levels:
π’ Demand Zone: 48,000 - 56,000
π΄ Supply Zone: 70,000 - 80,000
Levels for long positions:
55,000 - major support block
52,000 - retest of the EMA 200D line and trendline
50,000 - psychological support level
Levels for short positions:
70,000 - retest of the resistance trendline
75,000 - major resistance block
80,000 - major resistance block
π Fundamental analysis
The fundamental reasons behind the current decline in Bitcoin are:
- Reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate.
- Outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Selling pressure from Bitcoin miners.
- The prison sentence of Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance.
On April 20, the long-awaited Bitcoin (BTC) halving occurred, resulting in a halving of the block reward and miners' incomes dropping to 14-month lows. Experts believe that the risk of miner capitulation is increasing along with the decline in the price of Bitcoin. If the price continues to fall over the next few days and the decline extends for several weeks, major miners may face the need to initiate large-scale sell-offs to hedge their risks.
On May 1, the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $563.8 million. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) fund managed by the world's largest asset manager BlackRock lost $36.93 million. The outflow of funds for the previous trading day was the highest since January. While many experts view this as the beginning of a bear market, the key on-chain metrics indicate that it is simply a correction and the long-term outlook for the digital asset remains bullish. Long-term holders mostly anticipate further Bitcoin price growth.
π Upcoming Events in the Global Economy
We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:
β€ May 9th, 3:30 PM - US Unemployment Data.
β€ May 15th - US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
β€ June 12th, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates.
β€ July 31st, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates.
π Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:
Our trading indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was:
BTC +10.46%
ETH +12.71%
SOL +14.82%
In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
π AI BuySell Indicator: www.tradeinex.net/indicator
π Telegram channel: t.me/tradeinexen
_____________
π ΠΠ°Ρ Π’ΠΎΡΠ³ΠΎΠ²ΡΠΉ ΠΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡ: tradeinex.com/index/indikatory_tradeinex/0-20
π Π’Π΅Π»Π΅Π³ΡΠ°ΠΌ ΠΊΠ°Π½Π°Π»: t.me/tradeinex
π Telegram channel: t.me/tradeinexen
_____________
π ΠΠ°Ρ Π’ΠΎΡΠ³ΠΎΠ²ΡΠΉ ΠΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡ: tradeinex.com/index/indikatory_tradeinex/0-20
π Π’Π΅Π»Π΅Π³ΡΠ°ΠΌ ΠΊΠ°Π½Π°Π»: t.me/tradeinex
Our trading AI Indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was:
BTC +7.20%
ETH +4.81%
SOL +10.04%