Bitcoin has recently exited its ETF trading range after five weeks of consolidation, experiencing a downward shift. The current focus of the market is primarily on the movements of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), creating a complex scenario.
A notable aspect is the lag in the impact of Grayscale's Bitcoin outflows moving to Coinbase. Additionally, not all outflows represent redemptions; some are transfers to more cost-effective ETF providers. This, coupled with the reduction of long positions on the CME, complicates the situation by increasing selling pressure.
Reports suggest that significant selling pressure originated from the FTX estate liquidating its GBTC holdings. If this results in a decrease in outflows, particularly direct redemptions from Grayscale to other ETFs, there might be a reduction in selling pressure. Traders are actively monitoring signs of slowing outflows or selling, as they could indicate an opportunity for a rebound to the mean.
Looking at the broader perspective, ETFs have seen notable volume and inflows. However, the market price has been negatively affected by Grayscale's selling activities and the risk reduction from pre-ETF long positions, along with some liquidations. Once these temporary sources of supply diminish, the market is expected to show some improvement.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the weekly trading range has broken down, and there's a short-term downtrend on the daily chart. The immediate support level is around $38,000, with more significant levels ranging from $32,000 to $35,000. Signs of market strength, aside from flow considerations, would include reclaiming the $41,000 breakdown level, or more conservatively, a rise above the previous range high of $44,000.
Despite the current challenges, the overall picture suggests that we are still in a bull market. The factors contributing to a strong year for crypto include the upcoming halving, the introduction of the Spot ETF, and a general risk-on sentiment.
As expressed by Zhusu, "Bears will build and pay for the buy walls of the future."
A notable aspect is the lag in the impact of Grayscale's Bitcoin outflows moving to Coinbase. Additionally, not all outflows represent redemptions; some are transfers to more cost-effective ETF providers. This, coupled with the reduction of long positions on the CME, complicates the situation by increasing selling pressure.
Reports suggest that significant selling pressure originated from the FTX estate liquidating its GBTC holdings. If this results in a decrease in outflows, particularly direct redemptions from Grayscale to other ETFs, there might be a reduction in selling pressure. Traders are actively monitoring signs of slowing outflows or selling, as they could indicate an opportunity for a rebound to the mean.
Looking at the broader perspective, ETFs have seen notable volume and inflows. However, the market price has been negatively affected by Grayscale's selling activities and the risk reduction from pre-ETF long positions, along with some liquidations. Once these temporary sources of supply diminish, the market is expected to show some improvement.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the weekly trading range has broken down, and there's a short-term downtrend on the daily chart. The immediate support level is around $38,000, with more significant levels ranging from $32,000 to $35,000. Signs of market strength, aside from flow considerations, would include reclaiming the $41,000 breakdown level, or more conservatively, a rise above the previous range high of $44,000.
Despite the current challenges, the overall picture suggests that we are still in a bull market. The factors contributing to a strong year for crypto include the upcoming halving, the introduction of the Spot ETF, and a general risk-on sentiment.
As expressed by Zhusu, "Bears will build and pay for the buy walls of the future."
