Bitcoin To Provide The Biggest Buying Opportunity Before Spike
“Bitcoin has reached a historical milestone, as 90 per cent of the maximum 21 million bitcoin has been mined into supply,” Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at the UK digital asset broker GlobalBlock, told The Independent.
“Bitcoin’s scarcity is one of its most attractive aspects as an investment, which is what many people, institutions and governments are starting to catch on to. I think bitcoin’s scarcity will lead to a supply shock for bitcoin to help it overtake gold’s market cap over the next 10 years, which is around $10 trillion.”
Should such a forecast be realised, the price of one bitcoin would be worth in excess of $500,000.
The price of bitcoin is currently less than a tenth of that, having struggled to return above $50,000 at the start of the week following the third biggest dip in 2021.
Bitcoin’s downward trajectory in recent weeks has been driven by a variety of factors, most notably renewed fears surrounding the new Omicron variant of Covid-19, however long-term projections remain positive.
- Bitcoin price is in a massive accumulation phase before it explodes to $100,000 or more.
- The bull run is likely to begin after a deep correction to MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $45,500 - $29,800.
- On-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders are booking profit, adding a tailwind to the bearish thesis.
Bitcoin price has been hanging around the $50,000 psychological level for quite some time. A breakdown of one crucial support barrier is likely to trigger a steep crash for BTC. On-chain metrics are also suggesting that long-term holders are booking profits, anticipating a nosedive.
Bitcoin price and MicroStrategy’s accumulation:
Bitcoin price has been stuck between the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $51,782 and the 50-week SMA at $44,730 for roughly two weeks. Although BTC pierced through the 50-week SMA on December 4 crash, it recovered quickly. As the sell-off continues, the big crypto is slowly slithering its way to retest the vital support level.
A weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $44,730 will indicate a major shift in trend from bullish to bearish. This development would also signal that Bitcoin price is due to collect liquidity resting below the $40,596 support level.
While this liquidity run might knock BTC below $40,000, it is a temporary move. In the long run, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to consolidate here before heading to $30,000 or the liquidity resting below it.
Interestingly this downswing is necessary to trigger the stop-losses resting below a critical $29,860 level, which is the average buy-in price of MicroStrategy. To date, the business intelligence software company has purchased 122,477 BTC, which is 0.53% of the total BTC in existence.
The total value of Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy is worth $5.76 billion, which indicates a profit of roughly 56%. It is fair to assume that many whales or long-term holders that are betting on BTC have an average price at roughly the same level as MicroStrategy or a bit lower.
Therefore, a dip below the average price of MicroStrategy at $29,860 will indicate a ‘max pain’ scenario and is likely to be where many investors may panic and sell to prevent losses. Market makers are likely to drive Bitcoin price to retest this barrier, therefore, or just below it.
While this outlook is speculative, it would make sense for BTC, especially from a market makers’ perspective due to the supply resting below the multiple wicks present around the $30,000 psychological level. In total, this move would represent a 36% crash from the current position.
Although unlikely, a worst-case scenario would be for BTC to fall by 48%, allowing it to retest the 200-week SMA at $23,935.
IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model reflects the levels mentioned above. This on-chain index shows that the immediate cluster of investors that are “In the Money,” extends from $28,350 to $46,636.
Roughly 5.23 million addresses purchased 3.13 million BTC at an average price of $38,283. Therefore, a weekly close below this level will cause panic selling among investors that could drag the big crypto down to sub-$30,000 levels.
Moreover, any short-term buying pressure is likely to face massive headwinds as a massive cluster of underwater investors are present from $55,302 to $67,413. In this range, roughly 6.65 million addresses that purchased 3.37 million BTC are “Out of the Money.” Only a massive spike in buying pressure will be able to overcome the selling pressure from investors in this cluster trying to break even.
- Hence, the logical conclusion is that the outlook for BTC favors the bears.
- The supply shock chart supports the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. It shows that the long-term holders are booking profits.
long term holders have been selling down and taking profits, but as a cohort they continue to be in a region of peak accumulation. Bear markets coincide when these holders have divested of their coins, despite the fear in the market, structurally we are not setup for a bear market.
It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
“Bitcoin’s scarcity is one of its most attractive aspects as an investment, which is what many people, institutions and governments are starting to catch on to. I think bitcoin’s scarcity will lead to a supply shock for bitcoin to help it overtake gold’s market cap over the next 10 years, which is around $10 trillion.”
Should such a forecast be realised, the price of one bitcoin would be worth in excess of $500,000.
The price of bitcoin is currently less than a tenth of that, having struggled to return above $50,000 at the start of the week following the third biggest dip in 2021.
Bitcoin’s downward trajectory in recent weeks has been driven by a variety of factors, most notably renewed fears surrounding the new Omicron variant of Covid-19, however long-term projections remain positive.
- Bitcoin price is in a massive accumulation phase before it explodes to $100,000 or more.
- The bull run is likely to begin after a deep correction to MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $45,500 - $29,800.
- On-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders are booking profit, adding a tailwind to the bearish thesis.
Bitcoin price has been hanging around the $50,000 psychological level for quite some time. A breakdown of one crucial support barrier is likely to trigger a steep crash for BTC. On-chain metrics are also suggesting that long-term holders are booking profits, anticipating a nosedive.
Bitcoin price and MicroStrategy’s accumulation:
Bitcoin price has been stuck between the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $51,782 and the 50-week SMA at $44,730 for roughly two weeks. Although BTC pierced through the 50-week SMA on December 4 crash, it recovered quickly. As the sell-off continues, the big crypto is slowly slithering its way to retest the vital support level.
A weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $44,730 will indicate a major shift in trend from bullish to bearish. This development would also signal that Bitcoin price is due to collect liquidity resting below the $40,596 support level.
While this liquidity run might knock BTC below $40,000, it is a temporary move. In the long run, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to consolidate here before heading to $30,000 or the liquidity resting below it.
Interestingly this downswing is necessary to trigger the stop-losses resting below a critical $29,860 level, which is the average buy-in price of MicroStrategy. To date, the business intelligence software company has purchased 122,477 BTC, which is 0.53% of the total BTC in existence.
The total value of Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy is worth $5.76 billion, which indicates a profit of roughly 56%. It is fair to assume that many whales or long-term holders that are betting on BTC have an average price at roughly the same level as MicroStrategy or a bit lower.
Therefore, a dip below the average price of MicroStrategy at $29,860 will indicate a ‘max pain’ scenario and is likely to be where many investors may panic and sell to prevent losses. Market makers are likely to drive Bitcoin price to retest this barrier, therefore, or just below it.
While this outlook is speculative, it would make sense for BTC, especially from a market makers’ perspective due to the supply resting below the multiple wicks present around the $30,000 psychological level. In total, this move would represent a 36% crash from the current position.
Although unlikely, a worst-case scenario would be for BTC to fall by 48%, allowing it to retest the 200-week SMA at $23,935.
IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model reflects the levels mentioned above. This on-chain index shows that the immediate cluster of investors that are “In the Money,” extends from $28,350 to $46,636.
Roughly 5.23 million addresses purchased 3.13 million BTC at an average price of $38,283. Therefore, a weekly close below this level will cause panic selling among investors that could drag the big crypto down to sub-$30,000 levels.
Moreover, any short-term buying pressure is likely to face massive headwinds as a massive cluster of underwater investors are present from $55,302 to $67,413. In this range, roughly 6.65 million addresses that purchased 3.37 million BTC are “Out of the Money.” Only a massive spike in buying pressure will be able to overcome the selling pressure from investors in this cluster trying to break even.
- Hence, the logical conclusion is that the outlook for BTC favors the bears.
- The supply shock chart supports the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. It shows that the long-term holders are booking profits.
long term holders have been selling down and taking profits, but as a cohort they continue to be in a region of peak accumulation. Bear markets coincide when these holders have divested of their coins, despite the fear in the market, structurally we are not setup for a bear market.
It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
Trade active
Buy & Hold | +ROI
Investment Suggestion: LONG-TERM
Holding Duration : Min 2 Years
Probability: 93%
Fundamental Report: POSITIVE
Technical Report: POSITIVE
News Report: POSITIVE
> BTC Price Statistics | 19/DEC/2021
BTC Price: $47.150
Price Change 24h: $138.72/+0.29%
24h Low / 24h High: $46,426.84/$47,999.64
Trading Volume 24h: $24,767,000,997.38/-28.86%
Volume / Market Cap: 0.02786
Market Dominance: 40.36%
Market Rank: 1
Market Cap: $888,984,888,278.02/-0.20%
Fully Diluted Market Cap: $987,503,034,463.35/-0.20%
Yesterday's Change: +1.36%
Yesterday's Volume: $26,098,292,689.86
Circulating Supply: 18,904,937 BTC
Max Supply: 21,000,000 BTC
90d Low/90d High: $39,787.61/$68,789.63