BTC at the end of a re-distribution phase (target $35.000)
In my last analysis of the Ethereum price, I discussed the striking similarities between the price action of the leading altcoin and the BTC price. The bottom line was that this could result in another major market correction.
But how does another correction even fit into the current picture of the leading cryptocurrency?
I believe I have found the answer in this forecast.
Yet again, the similarities are striking. Points 1-3 show the upward movement in the BTC price, followed by the first major correction.
Between 3-6, another upward movement occurred, culminating in a buying climax (BC), followed by the automatic rally (AR) as a sudden counter-movement and the secondary test (ST) as confirmation that a change of character has occurred in the market. At this point, the BTC price moved from an uptrend to a sideways movement.
As we know today, it was a distribution phase, which was executed between points 6-10. At point 8, the UTAD event occurred in the form of a bull trap.
At that time, the BTC price briefly broke out above $60,000. As a result, many short positions were liquidated and many investors went long in the market. This maneuver created the liquidity for a larger sell-off.
We observed the equivalent of this maneuver most recently with the briefly breakout above $50,000.
In other words, I argue that we are currently at the end of a re-distribution phase.
If I am correct in our analysis, we will see a repeat of events in the coming 1-2 weeks, where between points 9-10, another attempt will be made to crack the current resistance (then $60,000, now $50,000).
In truth, it will probably be the last test before the big sell-off takes place.
In this scenario, we could be in for a roughly 20-30% correction if there is another deflection at around $50,000. In other words, the BTC price could fall back to $35,000 to $40,000. The altcoin market would be hit much harder.
Disclaimer: This analysis is an excerpt from the Bitcoin forecast on the German crypto blog Bitcoin-Bude. Source: Bitcoin Kurs Prognose
But how does another correction even fit into the current picture of the leading cryptocurrency?
I believe I have found the answer in this forecast.
Yet again, the similarities are striking. Points 1-3 show the upward movement in the BTC price, followed by the first major correction.
Between 3-6, another upward movement occurred, culminating in a buying climax (BC), followed by the automatic rally (AR) as a sudden counter-movement and the secondary test (ST) as confirmation that a change of character has occurred in the market. At this point, the BTC price moved from an uptrend to a sideways movement.
As we know today, it was a distribution phase, which was executed between points 6-10. At point 8, the UTAD event occurred in the form of a bull trap.
At that time, the BTC price briefly broke out above $60,000. As a result, many short positions were liquidated and many investors went long in the market. This maneuver created the liquidity for a larger sell-off.
We observed the equivalent of this maneuver most recently with the briefly breakout above $50,000.
In other words, I argue that we are currently at the end of a re-distribution phase.
If I am correct in our analysis, we will see a repeat of events in the coming 1-2 weeks, where between points 9-10, another attempt will be made to crack the current resistance (then $60,000, now $50,000).
In truth, it will probably be the last test before the big sell-off takes place.
In this scenario, we could be in for a roughly 20-30% correction if there is another deflection at around $50,000. In other words, the BTC price could fall back to $35,000 to $40,000. The altcoin market would be hit much harder.
Disclaimer: This analysis is an excerpt from the Bitcoin forecast on the German crypto blog Bitcoin-Bude. Source: Bitcoin Kurs Prognose
Comment:
A fair warning - I think there is still a fair chance that we are currently between step 9 and 10. Short term we might see a little drawback to 46k before BTC will attack the 50k once again.
The Bitcoin price is currently moving in a right-angled, falling, broadening formation. A long name for a chart pattern, but also an apt one.
The chart pattern can be recognized by its upper mostly horizontal trend line and lower falling trend line. The upper trend line connects several highs, all at the same level. The lower downward sloping trend line connects lower lows with each other.
A corresponding one has formed after the recent correction, clearly visible on the 4-hour chart.
Note here, what looks like a fundamentally bullish pattern to many may actually be a consolidation at the end of which the price continues to fall. However, due to the bullish divergence, we argue that the breakout to the upside is by far the more likely scenario here.
Should a breakout of the upper trendline actually occur, this results in a minimum price target of $51,500.
A renewed rise in the price of BTC fits perfectly into the picture. In fact, it would complete this picture.
Accordingly, we would be in the last cycle of this medium-term uptrend. However, in this scenario, the $50,000 breakout might not even happen. Equivalent to what happened in May, the price of BTC could already bounce off this resistance.