After a freefall followed by a strong bounce, the market seems fine and BTC ready to start making its way back up.
But we have to ask ourselves if this is not just a dead cat bounce, if so, what is going to happen?
To my eyes, we have 2 scenarios :
-This one is less likely, but not out of question : From here, Bitcoin will consolidate between 40-50k for a couple of months and then will break 50k and push higher to make new ATH . 30k is the low.
-This one is much more likely in my opinion : since Bitcoin is a risk asset (for now at least) and will most likely follow markets, as things aren't going well right now (I expect a big stock market pullback soon) Bitcoin will probably enter a bear market for the next couple of months, maybe even for a year or two. Looking at the chart, the 2017 20k high was not retested, giving us an indication that Bitcoin could go to 20k.
From here, Bitcoin could consolidate sideways, maybe push to the 49k resistance level , reject it then start its way down to 20k. At this point, I would be buying as much as I can. If this happens, Bitcoin will probably move sideways near 20k for a while, before pushing back up and continuing its cycle.
Why do I think this scenario is more likely? Well, we've seen that Bitcoin is a risk asset and this market doesn't favor risk assets. People are going towards risk off assets such as gold , which presents a great opportunity (see my post on gold to see my analysis). Also, most people are expecting a bounce from here and think 30k is the low, which makes me think we are in the DENIAL PHASE of the cycle, and we will go lower. Everyone is buying right here expecting a strong push higher.
Personally, after catching the bounce which gave us amazing short term trade opportunities, I sold most of my positions and am now sitting on 70% USDT. If for some reason the market goes crazy and pushes up aggressively, I still have some skin in the game to take advantage of this push. On the other hand, if bitcoin pushes lower to 20k and alts follow, I will incur small losses which won't really hurt me, and I will have a lot of my portfolio in USDT to buy near the lows.
Any questions?
Good luck traders
Remember not to break your rules
Habib
But we have to ask ourselves if this is not just a dead cat bounce, if so, what is going to happen?
To my eyes, we have 2 scenarios :
-This one is less likely, but not out of question : From here, Bitcoin will consolidate between 40-50k for a couple of months and then will break 50k and push higher to make new ATH . 30k is the low.
-This one is much more likely in my opinion : since Bitcoin is a risk asset (for now at least) and will most likely follow markets, as things aren't going well right now (I expect a big stock market pullback soon) Bitcoin will probably enter a bear market for the next couple of months, maybe even for a year or two. Looking at the chart, the 2017 20k high was not retested, giving us an indication that Bitcoin could go to 20k.
From here, Bitcoin could consolidate sideways, maybe push to the 49k resistance level , reject it then start its way down to 20k. At this point, I would be buying as much as I can. If this happens, Bitcoin will probably move sideways near 20k for a while, before pushing back up and continuing its cycle.
Why do I think this scenario is more likely? Well, we've seen that Bitcoin is a risk asset and this market doesn't favor risk assets. People are going towards risk off assets such as gold , which presents a great opportunity (see my post on gold to see my analysis). Also, most people are expecting a bounce from here and think 30k is the low, which makes me think we are in the DENIAL PHASE of the cycle, and we will go lower. Everyone is buying right here expecting a strong push higher.
Personally, after catching the bounce which gave us amazing short term trade opportunities, I sold most of my positions and am now sitting on 70% USDT. If for some reason the market goes crazy and pushes up aggressively, I still have some skin in the game to take advantage of this push. On the other hand, if bitcoin pushes lower to 20k and alts follow, I will incur small losses which won't really hurt me, and I will have a lot of my portfolio in USDT to buy near the lows.
Any questions?
Good luck traders
Remember not to break your rules
Habib