Big picture - The run up to 50K is out of steam. Volume is drying up, RSI is breaking down. Price action shows professional selling. The upward bullish daily channel has most likely broken down. It failed to hit the top of the channel, and now its working its way sideways through the bottom of the channel. What's next?
Where's the big money
1. Addresses >1,000 BTC had a small uptick from 2141 to 2154, however, this is not statistically significant. I'm looking for at least a 4% uptick. The uptick has held, which is positive, but it's not enough to shift my long term bearish bias.
2. BTC moving onto/off the exchanges has been quiet. There havent been any significant moves in the past 3 or 4 days. Too me, this is good because everyone can see this 1st push is out of steam. It would be a smart time for whales to sell if they didnt see a bigger move coming.
3. Call options are heavily stacked above 49K. This says big money doesnt think its going above 49K by Sep 3 and they'll write call options for retailers to take their money. Options show a closing of 48-49K on Sep 3 right now.
So, I think its safe for me to say that BTC will trade sideways for the moment. This is a good position for me.
Technical Analysis: I'm going to assume BTC broke the lower channel of the daily and that lower channel line will now serve as the short term upside resistance. There is also a strong option resistance band above 49K. I have a trendline drawn on the 1 hr as a buying point. Its a weak trendline that I use a dashed line to represent. The EMA ribbon at 46.8K is a buying point, as well as the 200 dma at 46K. Last night I bought at 47.8K and sold at 48.2K.
Overall, I'm bullish as a short term trader. Volume is drying up and I dont see a big upward push without a longer consolidation and positive news, but there's good downside support to rely on. So, I'm buying and selling the dips and watching the options continue to develop.
Where's the big money
1. Addresses >1,000 BTC had a small uptick from 2141 to 2154, however, this is not statistically significant. I'm looking for at least a 4% uptick. The uptick has held, which is positive, but it's not enough to shift my long term bearish bias.
2. BTC moving onto/off the exchanges has been quiet. There havent been any significant moves in the past 3 or 4 days. Too me, this is good because everyone can see this 1st push is out of steam. It would be a smart time for whales to sell if they didnt see a bigger move coming.
3. Call options are heavily stacked above 49K. This says big money doesnt think its going above 49K by Sep 3 and they'll write call options for retailers to take their money. Options show a closing of 48-49K on Sep 3 right now.
So, I think its safe for me to say that BTC will trade sideways for the moment. This is a good position for me.
Technical Analysis: I'm going to assume BTC broke the lower channel of the daily and that lower channel line will now serve as the short term upside resistance. There is also a strong option resistance band above 49K. I have a trendline drawn on the 1 hr as a buying point. Its a weak trendline that I use a dashed line to represent. The EMA ribbon at 46.8K is a buying point, as well as the 200 dma at 46K. Last night I bought at 47.8K and sold at 48.2K.
Overall, I'm bullish as a short term trader. Volume is drying up and I dont see a big upward push without a longer consolidation and positive news, but there's good downside support to rely on. So, I'm buying and selling the dips and watching the options continue to develop.