BTCUSDT: NTV and l/s ratio screams sell+Frenzy kills blockchain.
Hi folks!
I know I am really starting to look like a "permabear" here, but I am still holding on to my shorts despite a couple of intense days (my short have an average entry of 57.1k).
I am taking no actions right now except keeping my shorts, so I guess this is a neutral post.
Now, trying to watch the more fundamental picture rather than only T.A. it is easy to see why I have been wrong for so long, but also why I still might make a lot of money on my shorts:
- As long as T.A. goes, the 1D Bollinger Bands have usually been a good contrarian indicator, and especially after consecutive breaks of the same bound.
BTCUSD has touched the upper 1D BB for the fourth consecutive time, and that is rather crazy.
- The Long/Short bitfinex ratio is extremely high ATM, indicating that liquidation hunts can only happen in the downside direction, and that the dominoes can startt falling very fast due to the
total amount of leverage on the longs.
- The NTV has signalled a rather massive overpricing og BTCUSD compared to the inherent network value (=the use of the blockchain). In fact, this overpricing is much higher now than during the bull-run leading up to may, indicating both that the network activity has fallen (since the price is in the same range as the tops up untill may) and that the current market is even more speculative than before the 64 to 30k drop.
As for the record, I am a huge believer in blockchain technology, and my long-standing bearish view has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe that frenzies like we have seen now only damages the
reputation of the technology - this statement is based on three factors:
- The average investor/gambler do not understand the tech good enough and cannot separate crap from fantastic projects, so the frenzy steals focus and money from those projects who has the potential to change the world.
- The important discussions about the real values and use cases of blockchain are delayed (and potentially killed) by the frenzy, as regulatory risk increases and the average person care more about the potential of getting rich fast than to understand the arguments for using the tech.
- Stablecoins most likely has a very important role in creating these frenzy markets as they provide liquidity in ways that the average person (or potenially anyone) do not understand. My view is that stablecoins should never be issued by a company - if you say that you like crypto due to the idea of decentralization and still accepts that actors like Tether Ltd. controls the entire market in the same manner as the Fed controls the stock and bond market by, then you are actually full of bullshit because you then only care about gambling and not decentralization: Tether Ltd. is a huge bank (likely buying very sketchy debt) and nothing else in practice. In short, we need to get rid of these shady actors in the market before people can really take it seriously - let´s just hope USDT collapses sooner than later for the sake of blockchain.
My point here is: Do not confuse gambling (which I also do) with the belief in blockchain technology - they are completely independent in the current environment.
I wish you all well!
DYOR.
NFA.
Never take the word of others as a given, and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
I know I am really starting to look like a "permabear" here, but I am still holding on to my shorts despite a couple of intense days (my short have an average entry of 57.1k).
I am taking no actions right now except keeping my shorts, so I guess this is a neutral post.
Now, trying to watch the more fundamental picture rather than only T.A. it is easy to see why I have been wrong for so long, but also why I still might make a lot of money on my shorts:
- As long as T.A. goes, the 1D Bollinger Bands have usually been a good contrarian indicator, and especially after consecutive breaks of the same bound.
BTCUSD has touched the upper 1D BB for the fourth consecutive time, and that is rather crazy.
- The Long/Short bitfinex ratio is extremely high ATM, indicating that liquidation hunts can only happen in the downside direction, and that the dominoes can startt falling very fast due to the
total amount of leverage on the longs.
- The NTV has signalled a rather massive overpricing og BTCUSD compared to the inherent network value (=the use of the blockchain). In fact, this overpricing is much higher now than during the bull-run leading up to may, indicating both that the network activity has fallen (since the price is in the same range as the tops up untill may) and that the current market is even more speculative than before the 64 to 30k drop.
As for the record, I am a huge believer in blockchain technology, and my long-standing bearish view has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe that frenzies like we have seen now only damages the
reputation of the technology - this statement is based on three factors:
- The average investor/gambler do not understand the tech good enough and cannot separate crap from fantastic projects, so the frenzy steals focus and money from those projects who has the potential to change the world.
- The important discussions about the real values and use cases of blockchain are delayed (and potentially killed) by the frenzy, as regulatory risk increases and the average person care more about the potential of getting rich fast than to understand the arguments for using the tech.
- Stablecoins most likely has a very important role in creating these frenzy markets as they provide liquidity in ways that the average person (or potenially anyone) do not understand. My view is that stablecoins should never be issued by a company - if you say that you like crypto due to the idea of decentralization and still accepts that actors like Tether Ltd. controls the entire market in the same manner as the Fed controls the stock and bond market by, then you are actually full of bullshit because you then only care about gambling and not decentralization: Tether Ltd. is a huge bank (likely buying very sketchy debt) and nothing else in practice. In short, we need to get rid of these shady actors in the market before people can really take it seriously - let´s just hope USDT collapses sooner than later for the sake of blockchain.
My point here is: Do not confuse gambling (which I also do) with the belief in blockchain technology - they are completely independent in the current environment.
I wish you all well!
DYOR.
NFA.
Never take the word of others as a given, and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
