Bitcoin...where to now? Looking at the big picture.
BTC has broken the resistance at $45k on this daily chart (lower green zone on the chart). It now seems to be on a path towards the next resistance level which is $50k (upper green zone). And had a strong close over former resistance on March 27th, to wrap its 6th day closing in the green.
From a technical POV BTC looks good. Here's why:
1. Higher lows are in place, and higher highs have started to form but haven't confirmed yet. Note the yellow dotted lines on the chart.
2. The upper Bollinger band is pointing straight at its next target resistance level, $50k, and if you follow the trajectory on my Bollinger Band it's pointing almost directly at the ATH price of $69k. Possibly even slightly higher.
*However, keep in mind that we do not use the bands to predict, they are just one indicator in a basket of indicators we used to make educated guesses.
3. BTC hasn't been this high on my RSI since October-November of 2021 (thank you @HPotter for this excellent tool)
4. Same goes for MACD index which now sits at 1458, well above the sell signal at 733 (another thank you to @HPotter)
5. Volume is strong, in fact, three of the strongest volume days, since July 2021 (on days where BTC traded up) have come on Jan 24, Feb 24, and Feb 28 (2022)
**As far as volume across consecutive days, this is the first 6 day stretch of BTC closing up since the July 21-30th 2021 stretch (4 of those days the volume finished under moving avg.) Only one of the 6 past green days have finished with V < VMA (volume under moving average for volume)
***As a side note here, note that BTC's price was $29.9k to start the day on July 21 2021. On July 30 2021 BTC finished the day at $42.0k. That was nearly a 42% increase in price. Through the last 6 days and into today's current price ($46.9) we are seeing a 14.5% increase in price since the start of March 22 2022.
*Please note that I am not attempting to make a correlation, simply an observation.
6. Demand has returned to the long term futures market. According to the analyst Willy Woo-
"We are now seeing a solid bottom forming on long term futures markets, demand continues to come in. If you recall I was really waiting for this data to print before saying a bull market is in play. The early signs of this, from as early as last 2 weeks ago, is now in solid formation."
7. Macro Bottom is signaling - It seems demand has returned to the futures markets, which is where we really want to see demand return/leave for an indication of where the price is going.
****Also credit to BTC analyst Willy Woo here. Using data from Glassnode, he has created a chart that "tracks long term futures demand by looking at calendar futures yields in an oscillator view." and one that tracks the same parameters but for "holder demand."
Link to the photos are below on imgur.com:
imgur.com/a/OUnwsb3
8. Bull calls are coming from Wall St analyst again. In Nathan Bachelor's "Pro BTC Trader" report on March 27th 2022 he reported "According to analysts at Bloomberg, if Bitcoin breaks through its high of $45,300 from early March, then price targets of $50,450 and $54,300 are possible."
*However - this same sentiment has not returned to "the masses." According to Mr. Bachelor via Data compiled by Santiment, "sentiment is still ultra-low, which favors more near-term upside." A link to the chart image is below:
imgur.com/a/RqRhadi
9. The network set a new record in holders (40 million wallets) per data from IntoTheBlock. Link to their tweet below:
twitter.com/int...302748764753922?s=20&t...
10. According to data from Glassnode, a dormant BTC address containing 500 BTC ($22,161,836) has just been activated after nearly 10 years.
**Side Note***
My friend Kevin thinks that people start to care about Bitcoin less as it's price rises, because it is "too expensive." Despite that he said that he just has a feeling that it's going to $70k.
Kevin is not an analyst, and he did not have access to any of this information before he made this statement, but it does line up with the demand being in the futures market, but not with "the masses"
Although not technical in nature, I do like to use people in my every day life as market signals. I don't put a strong weigh on the category but I do find it relevant enough to consider.
All of my points were not completely technical in nature. I do consider all 10 points to be relevant information however. Some of the "on chain" data has proven to be strong indicators over the entire BTC/crypto life cycle.
TLDR:
Technical data looks good, on chain looks good, an old address with 500 BTC became active after 10 years, demand has returned to the futures market, bull calls are coming from wall st, and my friend Kevin just has a feeling its going to the moon.
Thank you for taking the time to read my ideas, they are not meant to be financial advice. **Do your own research, and trade at your own risk.**
Happy Trading,
CryptoSlayer
PS. if you'd like to see some of my other ideas follow the links below.
From a technical POV BTC looks good. Here's why:
1. Higher lows are in place, and higher highs have started to form but haven't confirmed yet. Note the yellow dotted lines on the chart.
2. The upper Bollinger band is pointing straight at its next target resistance level, $50k, and if you follow the trajectory on my Bollinger Band it's pointing almost directly at the ATH price of $69k. Possibly even slightly higher.
*However, keep in mind that we do not use the bands to predict, they are just one indicator in a basket of indicators we used to make educated guesses.
3. BTC hasn't been this high on my RSI since October-November of 2021 (thank you @HPotter for this excellent tool)
4. Same goes for MACD index which now sits at 1458, well above the sell signal at 733 (another thank you to @HPotter)
5. Volume is strong, in fact, three of the strongest volume days, since July 2021 (on days where BTC traded up) have come on Jan 24, Feb 24, and Feb 28 (2022)
**As far as volume across consecutive days, this is the first 6 day stretch of BTC closing up since the July 21-30th 2021 stretch (4 of those days the volume finished under moving avg.) Only one of the 6 past green days have finished with V < VMA (volume under moving average for volume)
***As a side note here, note that BTC's price was $29.9k to start the day on July 21 2021. On July 30 2021 BTC finished the day at $42.0k. That was nearly a 42% increase in price. Through the last 6 days and into today's current price ($46.9) we are seeing a 14.5% increase in price since the start of March 22 2022.
*Please note that I am not attempting to make a correlation, simply an observation.
6. Demand has returned to the long term futures market. According to the analyst Willy Woo-
"We are now seeing a solid bottom forming on long term futures markets, demand continues to come in. If you recall I was really waiting for this data to print before saying a bull market is in play. The early signs of this, from as early as last 2 weeks ago, is now in solid formation."
7. Macro Bottom is signaling - It seems demand has returned to the futures markets, which is where we really want to see demand return/leave for an indication of where the price is going.
****Also credit to BTC analyst Willy Woo here. Using data from Glassnode, he has created a chart that "tracks long term futures demand by looking at calendar futures yields in an oscillator view." and one that tracks the same parameters but for "holder demand."
Link to the photos are below on imgur.com:
imgur.com/a/OUnwsb3
8. Bull calls are coming from Wall St analyst again. In Nathan Bachelor's "Pro BTC Trader" report on March 27th 2022 he reported "According to analysts at Bloomberg, if Bitcoin breaks through its high of $45,300 from early March, then price targets of $50,450 and $54,300 are possible."
*However - this same sentiment has not returned to "the masses." According to Mr. Bachelor via Data compiled by Santiment, "sentiment is still ultra-low, which favors more near-term upside." A link to the chart image is below:
imgur.com/a/RqRhadi
9. The network set a new record in holders (40 million wallets) per data from IntoTheBlock. Link to their tweet below:
twitter.com/int...302748764753922?s=20&t...
10. According to data from Glassnode, a dormant BTC address containing 500 BTC ($22,161,836) has just been activated after nearly 10 years.
**Side Note***
My friend Kevin thinks that people start to care about Bitcoin less as it's price rises, because it is "too expensive." Despite that he said that he just has a feeling that it's going to $70k.
Kevin is not an analyst, and he did not have access to any of this information before he made this statement, but it does line up with the demand being in the futures market, but not with "the masses"
Although not technical in nature, I do like to use people in my every day life as market signals. I don't put a strong weigh on the category but I do find it relevant enough to consider.
All of my points were not completely technical in nature. I do consider all 10 points to be relevant information however. Some of the "on chain" data has proven to be strong indicators over the entire BTC/crypto life cycle.
TLDR:
Technical data looks good, on chain looks good, an old address with 500 BTC became active after 10 years, demand has returned to the futures market, bull calls are coming from wall st, and my friend Kevin just has a feeling its going to the moon.
Thank you for taking the time to read my ideas, they are not meant to be financial advice. **Do your own research, and trade at your own risk.**
Happy Trading,
CryptoSlayer
PS. if you'd like to see some of my other ideas follow the links below.
