Notice: Since January 16th I have charted out this possible Wyckoff accumulation schematic. I have only updated the supply and demand boxes to justify the moves that have happened, but the pathway hasn't been touched. With this most recent push up to 26k I thought now was the time to publish this idea.
BTC is at a point where my idea is either invalidated or it will continue to playout until it is invalidated. A weekly close above the weekly swing high will change my expectations for this chart, but could still have a similar pathway. If we get a close above, then we will have an actual market structure shift on the weekly since the bear market started. At that point I would be looking for a double bottom and the lows to be revisited, or possibly a sweep of the lows were we never get a close below.
If we don't get a close above then this idea is still in play and I will be looking for the "Sell in May" to start to bring the market down, apathy to kick in and people to stop caring for a little while. Summer Lull will continue to bring the market lower, with a rally here or there but ultimately the downtrend to stay intact. Coming into Aug/September, a bottom to be formed and wash out all the bulls that were calling for the bottom to already be in. Nov/Dec we can get our Q4 rally heading into the new year where we could see an actual change in market sentiment, just in time for the FED to start QE and heading into the halving where we will see the start of a new bull market. This chart takes wyckoff and pairs it with seasonality and the current market conditions that makes sense to me. Everyone seems to not want to take the current macro economic conditions going on into consideration. This idea I believe does.
BTC is at a point where my idea is either invalidated or it will continue to playout until it is invalidated. A weekly close above the weekly swing high will change my expectations for this chart, but could still have a similar pathway. If we get a close above, then we will have an actual market structure shift on the weekly since the bear market started. At that point I would be looking for a double bottom and the lows to be revisited, or possibly a sweep of the lows were we never get a close below.
If we don't get a close above then this idea is still in play and I will be looking for the "Sell in May" to start to bring the market down, apathy to kick in and people to stop caring for a little while. Summer Lull will continue to bring the market lower, with a rally here or there but ultimately the downtrend to stay intact. Coming into Aug/September, a bottom to be formed and wash out all the bulls that were calling for the bottom to already be in. Nov/Dec we can get our Q4 rally heading into the new year where we could see an actual change in market sentiment, just in time for the FED to start QE and heading into the halving where we will see the start of a new bull market. This chart takes wyckoff and pairs it with seasonality and the current market conditions that makes sense to me. Everyone seems to not want to take the current macro economic conditions going on into consideration. This idea I believe does.