The Grayscale Effect and Beyond

greeting fellow traders , did you miss me ? i hope you were hitting long button hard as i was in October :)

Allow me to present my first post for November, focusing on the mighty BTCUSDT.P
. Where do I begin?

On October 23rd, we witnessed Grayscale winning a legal battle against the SEC, which ignited a breakout in BTC's price, halting at the 0.382 Fibonacci swing level. It's evident that institutional players are actively entering the market, and the buzz around the approval of the ETF is hard to ignore.

BTC trading is a unique challenge, as it consistently hovers in an equilibrium sweet spot, making it hard to predict its next move. However, today, my bias leans towards a long position, and here's why.

High Time Frame (1W) - Neutral
On the Weekly Time Frame, we observe that the price is currently at the swing Fibonacci 0.382 level, coinciding with the trendline resistance. Additionally, I've marked two horizontal Support/Resistance levels on the chart. Here's what we can glean from this:

1.BTC recently broke out of a diamond pattern, retesting it on October 2nd.
2.The expected growth for the diamond pattern is around 35,000, with or without the Grayscale news.
3.News accelerates growth but doesn't alter its overall trajectory, which is why we must adhere to technical analysis.
4.Failure to retest 31,500 would be cause for concern.and we will always sleep with one eyes open :(


Mid Time Frame (4h) - Bullish
This chart, hater will say its in a rising wedge , but i see an ascending triangle, a bullish pattern. Here's my analysis:

1.We're in a re-accumulation phase, characterized by a prolonged and narrow consolidation with a slightly upward angle after the pump – indicative of accumulation.
2.The presence of an ascending triangle.
3.It has received support from key Fibonacci levels (0.618, 0.5, 0.382) and currently rests at the final 0.236 level.
4.It has surpassed the volume profile's largest block.
4.Strong support from the smart cloud.
4.The bullish apex from the liquidity detective oscillator has been uninterrupted since October 20th.


In summary, BTC appears more bullish than expected. Initially, I planned to sell at October's peak, but now I'm considering starting a long position. It's crucial to acknowledge that the current price lacks substantial support. Nonetheless, the overwhelmingly positive sentiment in November introduces additional risk for short positions. When assessing both directions, the bias is skewed towards long positions.

I believe a retest of the 31,500-31,800 range is essential for a bullish move. However, there's a possibility of a fakeout in the 4-hour chart, particularly with ETF approval news in the mix. It may attempt to fill the magnet block between 42,000 and 44,000.

Eventually, Wall Street could join the fray, boosting bullish sentiment, and people may anticipate a return to the previous high of 60,000. when everyone think the new money on ETF will be the savior of the bear market , and everyone is bullish to a climax. the wolfs of wall street will drop the price in 3 of 15m candles. --- from there we will start our true bull market.