BTCUSD: A Closer At Price Action (Growth & Drop) : 108 Months
More of "an Editorial than a simple short Analysis":
1. Let's consider Price Movements from 01 Aug 11 to today as following:
1st Cycle :
1st Fall : 01 Aug 11 - 01 Nov 11 92 Days -81 % 12 - 2 USD
1st Buffer : 01 Nov 11 - 01 Jan 13 427 Days +732 % 2 - 15 USD
1st Extension : 01 Jan 13 - 01 Apr 13 90 Days +1,753 % 15 - 261 USD
Price Movement: 130.5 X ( 2 - 261 USD)
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2nd Cycle :
2nd Fall : 01 Apr 13 - 01 Jul 13 91 Days -79 % 261 - 60 USD
2nd Buffer : 01 Jul 11 - 01 Oct 13 92 Days +136 % 60 - 138 USD
2nd Extension : 01 Oct 13 - 01 Nov 13 31 Days +738 % 138 - 1,160 USD
Price Movement: 19.3 X ( 60 - 1,160 USD)
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3rd Cycle :
3rd Fall : 01 Nov 13 - 01 Jan 15 426 Days -86 % 1,160 - 160 USD
3rd Buffer : 01 Jan 15 - 01 Feb 17 762 Days 609 % 160 - 1,165 USD
3rd Extension : 01 Feb 17 - 01 Dec 17 303 Days 1,517 % 1,165 - 19,680 USD
Price Movement: 123 X ( 160 - 19,680 USD)
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4th Cycle :
4th Fall : 01 Dec 17 - 01 Jan 19 92 Days -83 % 19,680 - 3,190 USD
4th Buffer : 01 Jan 19 - 01 Nov 20 92 Days 490 % 3,190 - 19,680 USD
4th Extension : 01 Nov 20 - Present 92 Days 110 % 19,680 - 42,400 USD
Price Movement: 13.29 X ( 3,190 - 42,400 USD)
2. Now Consider it this way - by @kyer - a tradingview.com user "BTC Logarithmic Growth - Halving Event Explained":
In Bitcoin's short 12-year life span, it's had 3 halving events:
1st Halving: 11/28/12
2nd Halving: 7/9/16
3rd Halving: 5/11/20
What is a Bitcoin Halving?
Every 210,000 blocks mined, or about every four years, the reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions is cut in half. This cuts in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation. This is Bitcoin’s way of using a synthetic form of inflation that halves every four years until all Bitcoin is released and is in circulation.
This system will continue until the year 2140. At that point, miners will be rewarded with fees for processing transactions that network users will pay. These fees ensure that miners still have the incentive to mine and keep the network going. The idea is that competition for these fees cause them to remain low after halvings are finished.
In 2009, the reward for each block mined was 50 Bitcoins . After the first halving it was 25, then 12.5, and on May 11th, 2020 it became 6.25 Bitcoins per block. Imagine if the amount of gold mined out of the earth was cut in half every four years. If gold’s value is based on its scarcity, then a “halving” of gold output every four years would theoretically drive its price higher.
The 1st Halving Event saw a 10313% gain, 371 days after the halving creating a new ATH @ $1,165.89
The 2nd Halving Event saw a 3138% gain, 518 days after the halving creating a new ATH @ $19.154.13
The 3rd Halving Event should see a 6725% gain, 444 days after the halving creating a new ATH @ $552,455.38
This upwards move after the halving is already starting to play out, and should see it come to fruition nearing the end of 2021. The global market cap just crossed the 1T mark, and Bitcoin sitting at a $754B market cap would be the 7th biggest company in the world. Right now, we're in the beginning of 2017 again and the best is yet to come!
"History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes" - Mark Twain
3. What would be final conclusion then?
Seemingly $552,455 - BTC's NEW ATH is too high. Volatility will be tremendous & many might consider this target over-exaggerated. Governments are growing more & more concerned about their Banking Systems Consistency due to this avalanche of Cryptos Revolutionary traits. Future is uncertain & nobody exactly knows what could really happen.
Yet, "if Previous Patterns" are to be repeated & Supply is shrinking we have just passed a 4th Buffer Phase which takes time just like other periods to be corrected, settled down and BOOM again. $24000 - $27000 are possible, or a "Time Correction" at least would be probable.
Not a financial advice. But, Ideas Worth Spreading (TED).
Like would be a great bless dudes. Much appreciate for your kind attention & patience.
Morteza Emzajerdi
1. Let's consider Price Movements from 01 Aug 11 to today as following:
1st Cycle :
1st Fall : 01 Aug 11 - 01 Nov 11 92 Days -81 % 12 - 2 USD
1st Buffer : 01 Nov 11 - 01 Jan 13 427 Days +732 % 2 - 15 USD
1st Extension : 01 Jan 13 - 01 Apr 13 90 Days +1,753 % 15 - 261 USD
Price Movement: 130.5 X ( 2 - 261 USD)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Cycle :
2nd Fall : 01 Apr 13 - 01 Jul 13 91 Days -79 % 261 - 60 USD
2nd Buffer : 01 Jul 11 - 01 Oct 13 92 Days +136 % 60 - 138 USD
2nd Extension : 01 Oct 13 - 01 Nov 13 31 Days +738 % 138 - 1,160 USD
Price Movement: 19.3 X ( 60 - 1,160 USD)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd Cycle :
3rd Fall : 01 Nov 13 - 01 Jan 15 426 Days -86 % 1,160 - 160 USD
3rd Buffer : 01 Jan 15 - 01 Feb 17 762 Days 609 % 160 - 1,165 USD
3rd Extension : 01 Feb 17 - 01 Dec 17 303 Days 1,517 % 1,165 - 19,680 USD
Price Movement: 123 X ( 160 - 19,680 USD)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4th Cycle :
4th Fall : 01 Dec 17 - 01 Jan 19 92 Days -83 % 19,680 - 3,190 USD
4th Buffer : 01 Jan 19 - 01 Nov 20 92 Days 490 % 3,190 - 19,680 USD
4th Extension : 01 Nov 20 - Present 92 Days 110 % 19,680 - 42,400 USD
Price Movement: 13.29 X ( 3,190 - 42,400 USD)
2. Now Consider it this way - by @kyer - a tradingview.com user "BTC Logarithmic Growth - Halving Event Explained":
In Bitcoin's short 12-year life span, it's had 3 halving events:
1st Halving: 11/28/12
2nd Halving: 7/9/16
3rd Halving: 5/11/20
What is a Bitcoin Halving?
Every 210,000 blocks mined, or about every four years, the reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions is cut in half. This cuts in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation. This is Bitcoin’s way of using a synthetic form of inflation that halves every four years until all Bitcoin is released and is in circulation.
This system will continue until the year 2140. At that point, miners will be rewarded with fees for processing transactions that network users will pay. These fees ensure that miners still have the incentive to mine and keep the network going. The idea is that competition for these fees cause them to remain low after halvings are finished.
In 2009, the reward for each block mined was 50 Bitcoins . After the first halving it was 25, then 12.5, and on May 11th, 2020 it became 6.25 Bitcoins per block. Imagine if the amount of gold mined out of the earth was cut in half every four years. If gold’s value is based on its scarcity, then a “halving” of gold output every four years would theoretically drive its price higher.
The 1st Halving Event saw a 10313% gain, 371 days after the halving creating a new ATH @ $1,165.89
The 2nd Halving Event saw a 3138% gain, 518 days after the halving creating a new ATH @ $19.154.13
The 3rd Halving Event should see a 6725% gain, 444 days after the halving creating a new ATH @ $552,455.38
This upwards move after the halving is already starting to play out, and should see it come to fruition nearing the end of 2021. The global market cap just crossed the 1T mark, and Bitcoin sitting at a $754B market cap would be the 7th biggest company in the world. Right now, we're in the beginning of 2017 again and the best is yet to come!
"History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes" - Mark Twain
3. What would be final conclusion then?
Seemingly $552,455 - BTC's NEW ATH is too high. Volatility will be tremendous & many might consider this target over-exaggerated. Governments are growing more & more concerned about their Banking Systems Consistency due to this avalanche of Cryptos Revolutionary traits. Future is uncertain & nobody exactly knows what could really happen.
Yet, "if Previous Patterns" are to be repeated & Supply is shrinking we have just passed a 4th Buffer Phase which takes time just like other periods to be corrected, settled down and BOOM again. $24000 - $27000 are possible, or a "Time Correction" at least would be probable.
Not a financial advice. But, Ideas Worth Spreading (TED).
Like would be a great bless dudes. Much appreciate for your kind attention & patience.
Morteza Emzajerdi