Finally... After nine days of bitcoin trading between $18,600 and $19,700, we have some volatility. During these nine days starting on November 30 prices consolidated into a triangle.
For the better half of this range, onchain flows were bullish. Liquidity was still flowing into exchanges and reaching new highs was not out of the question.
This all unfolded as traders took profits whenever price approached all-time highs. It’s a normal response in the market as price rarely breaks its prior all-time high on its first go around.
The status quo of good liquidity, bullish onchain flows, and normal levels of profit taking began to shift late on Dec. 7 and early Dec. 8th.
To view the transactions that Jarvis flagged during this time period, you can view them in this link: telegra.ph/To-Buy-the-Dip-or-Not-12-09 .
As these transactions got picked up by Jarvis and paired alongside other metrics and indicators, it took profits on its BAND long position… And moved to the sidelines.
Many of you might ask why it didn’t go ahead and take a short position. It’s a great question that hints at the current environment… Risky. The risk meter for Jarvis is still high. Making the payoff for the amount of risk involved in trade not worth it.
So instead of jumping into a short position with elevated risk levels, it’s apparent Jarvis is waiting for a long entry.
It’s tough to know when Jarvis will begin to scale into a long since it’s the type of thing that isn’t apparent until it is. That’s because this type of reactionary trade is determined from real-time blockchain data. As onchain data begins to indicate bullish activity, Jarvis will hone in on a range using a handful of methods.
Based on the methods we programmed into Jarvis we can expect the areas highlighted in the white support lines and the white box below to be of interest. But by no means definite.
Again, we won’t know if any of these areas of interest hold until the onchain flows turn bullish again.
Keep in mind, outside of the onchain flows there are several bullish indicators. Hashribbons, a long-term swing indicator turned bullish several days ago, exchange reserves are at yearly lows our Jarvis Index is still near its buy range and funding rates are no longer heavily skewed. Each one of these is a bullish reading.
It’s why this drop is best viewed as an opportunity to find longs instead of chasing a high risk / low reward short.
If USDT, USDC, BUSD are re-entering exchanges and various wallets begin moving similar assets into DEXs then traders ought to consider a long.
We hope whales choose DEXs since this type of data is viewed before it happens, giving Jarvis plenty of time to make a move with even greater accuracy.
Subscribe to follow this trade!
Your Pulse on Crypto,
B. Lilly
For the better half of this range, onchain flows were bullish. Liquidity was still flowing into exchanges and reaching new highs was not out of the question.
This all unfolded as traders took profits whenever price approached all-time highs. It’s a normal response in the market as price rarely breaks its prior all-time high on its first go around.
The status quo of good liquidity, bullish onchain flows, and normal levels of profit taking began to shift late on Dec. 7 and early Dec. 8th.
To view the transactions that Jarvis flagged during this time period, you can view them in this link: telegra.ph/To-Buy-the-Dip-or-Not-12-09 .
As these transactions got picked up by Jarvis and paired alongside other metrics and indicators, it took profits on its BAND long position… And moved to the sidelines.
Many of you might ask why it didn’t go ahead and take a short position. It’s a great question that hints at the current environment… Risky. The risk meter for Jarvis is still high. Making the payoff for the amount of risk involved in trade not worth it.
So instead of jumping into a short position with elevated risk levels, it’s apparent Jarvis is waiting for a long entry.
It’s tough to know when Jarvis will begin to scale into a long since it’s the type of thing that isn’t apparent until it is. That’s because this type of reactionary trade is determined from real-time blockchain data. As onchain data begins to indicate bullish activity, Jarvis will hone in on a range using a handful of methods.
Based on the methods we programmed into Jarvis we can expect the areas highlighted in the white support lines and the white box below to be of interest. But by no means definite.
Again, we won’t know if any of these areas of interest hold until the onchain flows turn bullish again.
Keep in mind, outside of the onchain flows there are several bullish indicators. Hashribbons, a long-term swing indicator turned bullish several days ago, exchange reserves are at yearly lows our Jarvis Index is still near its buy range and funding rates are no longer heavily skewed. Each one of these is a bullish reading.
It’s why this drop is best viewed as an opportunity to find longs instead of chasing a high risk / low reward short.
If USDT, USDC, BUSD are re-entering exchanges and various wallets begin moving similar assets into DEXs then traders ought to consider a long.
We hope whales choose DEXs since this type of data is viewed before it happens, giving Jarvis plenty of time to make a move with even greater accuracy.
Subscribe to follow this trade!
Your Pulse on Crypto,
B. Lilly
Comment:
Onchain flows are still bearish on this bounce. Here's the proof: telegra.ph/More-Red-...ite-the-Bounce-12-09
Comment:
Still range bound for the near term. Nice on-chain flow of bullish stablecoins this morning... but that's about it. Nothing to break range yet.
A short position near the 18400 area in terms of OB analysis looks nice. But need to wait to see what on-chain looks like once we get there. Also, the funding rates are heavily skewed. They need to reset a bit for the risk/reward of the trade to make sense.
These funding rates mean the current environment is becoming increasingly difficult for leveraged traders to find an entry that doesn't cost them >10% interest.
This is because DeFi has place a premium on capital, which is now surfacing itself in the leveraged markets. Earning interest on stablecoins is becoming an easier solution for gains at the moment.
A short position near the 18400 area in terms of OB analysis looks nice. But need to wait to see what on-chain looks like once we get there. Also, the funding rates are heavily skewed. They need to reset a bit for the risk/reward of the trade to make sense.
These funding rates mean the current environment is becoming increasingly difficult for leveraged traders to find an entry that doesn't cost them >10% interest.
This is because DeFi has place a premium on capital, which is now surfacing itself in the leveraged markets. Earning interest on stablecoins is becoming an easier solution for gains at the moment.
Your Pulse on Crypto,
Ben Lilly
Ben Lilly