SUMMARY: Bullish, however expect consolidation period, potentially 4-6 weeks
-- Technical --
There has been a strong 1D wave correction dropping the price by 15k.
There may be a second Hourly correction, however, on the first wave has fallen by 7-8k.
Over a period for several days BTC has fallen almost 20k in a massive bull market .
1D Bollinger bands have pierced through the bottom band for several days which implies a bottom has been reached.
Secondly, the wick on the weekly Bollinger band has touched the weekly EMA.
Finally, the BTC price is back below the Stock to Flow (S2F) model value.
-- Fundamentals --
1️⃣ Those weekend futures liquidations. I shared the post above over the weekend that explained the impact of excess leverage and cascading liquidations. That is what drove us below 60k.
2️⃣ JP Morgan FUD. They released a report that claimed the liquidations had an impact on the liquidity in the Bitcoin markets. Not really correct but the FUD did come at a time when traders were already skittish
3️⃣ Impacts of that Turkish Exchange Rugpull. It has been reported that the founder rugpulled and managed to bag over $2bn in BTC. Turkey had some of the largest per capita Bitcoin adoption stats in the world. They were already dealing with the impacts of the Central Bank ban last week and the Exchange rugpull adds insult to injury. There are also fears that those $2bn funds could seen make there way onto the market in some way and potentially impact on the price.
4️⃣ Biden's Cap Gains Proposal. It was announced that Biden is looking to increase capital gains tax to as high as 43.% for high income earners. This is almost double the rate that they have to pay now. Of course, this spooked all markets. All of those wealthy investors who own assets would be in the firing line.
None of these have fundamentally altered my investment thesis in Bitcoin. The last one is particularly nonsensical to me. Firstly, it only applies to High Net Worth US citizens. And, even then, do you logically think that Bitcoin whales would sell now to avoid tax in the future?
"Let's sell Bitcoin now to avoid the tax we have to pay on all those massive future gains".
That sentence is silly which is why I don't think they will really sell.
Moreover, this whole "tax" FUD is mute. That is because it's merely a proposal which is pretty unlikely to pass the Senate. We should not forget that the Dems only hold a razor thin majority and there are a lot of moderate D's who would not support this.
So, it's all noise. I will be enjoying my weekend as its amazingly sunny in London. I won't be stressing about the markets. They will be there when I return.
$$$ Happy Bull Market come Alts season $$$
In addition - if you enjoyed the analysis and would like more : Please hit "LIKE" and "FOLLOW".
SO: What do you think, have I missed something or is there a particular indicator you like? Let me know in the comments.
*Not financial advice and is for educational purposes only. Always DYOR.
-- Technical --
There has been a strong 1D wave correction dropping the price by 15k.
There may be a second Hourly correction, however, on the first wave has fallen by 7-8k.
Over a period for several days BTC has fallen almost 20k in a massive bull market .
1D Bollinger bands have pierced through the bottom band for several days which implies a bottom has been reached.
Secondly, the wick on the weekly Bollinger band has touched the weekly EMA.
Finally, the BTC price is back below the Stock to Flow (S2F) model value.
-- Fundamentals --
1️⃣ Those weekend futures liquidations. I shared the post above over the weekend that explained the impact of excess leverage and cascading liquidations. That is what drove us below 60k.
2️⃣ JP Morgan FUD. They released a report that claimed the liquidations had an impact on the liquidity in the Bitcoin markets. Not really correct but the FUD did come at a time when traders were already skittish
3️⃣ Impacts of that Turkish Exchange Rugpull. It has been reported that the founder rugpulled and managed to bag over $2bn in BTC. Turkey had some of the largest per capita Bitcoin adoption stats in the world. They were already dealing with the impacts of the Central Bank ban last week and the Exchange rugpull adds insult to injury. There are also fears that those $2bn funds could seen make there way onto the market in some way and potentially impact on the price.
4️⃣ Biden's Cap Gains Proposal. It was announced that Biden is looking to increase capital gains tax to as high as 43.% for high income earners. This is almost double the rate that they have to pay now. Of course, this spooked all markets. All of those wealthy investors who own assets would be in the firing line.
None of these have fundamentally altered my investment thesis in Bitcoin. The last one is particularly nonsensical to me. Firstly, it only applies to High Net Worth US citizens. And, even then, do you logically think that Bitcoin whales would sell now to avoid tax in the future?
"Let's sell Bitcoin now to avoid the tax we have to pay on all those massive future gains".
That sentence is silly which is why I don't think they will really sell.
Moreover, this whole "tax" FUD is mute. That is because it's merely a proposal which is pretty unlikely to pass the Senate. We should not forget that the Dems only hold a razor thin majority and there are a lot of moderate D's who would not support this.
So, it's all noise. I will be enjoying my weekend as its amazingly sunny in London. I won't be stressing about the markets. They will be there when I return.
$$$ Happy Bull Market come Alts season $$$
In addition - if you enjoyed the analysis and would like more : Please hit "LIKE" and "FOLLOW".
SO: What do you think, have I missed something or is there a particular indicator you like? Let me know in the comments.
*Not financial advice and is for educational purposes only. Always DYOR.
Comment:
Comment:
Live Bitcoin & Crypto Fear and Greed Index level is currently 40.
Even with the current high levels of fear the price did not fall further.. It implies we are at a bottom for the current price - caveat it could fall further to 43k level but it would be a very hard support level.
Even with the current high levels of fear the price did not fall further.. It implies we are at a bottom for the current price - caveat it could fall further to 43k level but it would be a very hard support level.
Comment:
Comment: After an aggressively bearish week and an oversell due to fear. We have seen a powerful key reversal.
