This is my attempt at applying Wyckoff's methodology to the BTC/USD price chart.
Wyckoff posits that, although price movement may appear random, it actually follows a repeating cycle that can be divided into four distinct phases: accumulation, mark-up, distribution, and decline.
Based on historical data, it appears as though BTC is in the early-to-mid mark-up phase of its third cycle. Coincidentally (or not), these cycles correlate with halving events (see Stock-2-Flow model).
My recommendation is to continue holding BTC through 2021, as I see much upside potential. Note that the risk-reward ratio is greatest in the distributionm phase, and smallest in the accumulation phase.
*Note that the final mark-up phase is extended by an arbitrary amount*
Wyckoff posits that, although price movement may appear random, it actually follows a repeating cycle that can be divided into four distinct phases: accumulation, mark-up, distribution, and decline.
Based on historical data, it appears as though BTC is in the early-to-mid mark-up phase of its third cycle. Coincidentally (or not), these cycles correlate with halving events (see Stock-2-Flow model).
My recommendation is to continue holding BTC through 2021, as I see much upside potential. Note that the risk-reward ratio is greatest in the distributionm phase, and smallest in the accumulation phase.
*Note that the final mark-up phase is extended by an arbitrary amount*