TomShilleck

More DOWNSIDE for BTC - Prepare your shorts!

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
First off, let me say that I do realize that an iH&S is forming on a much larger picture. Let me also state from facts:

- BTC is still in bear territory after failing to maintain its close above the Downtrend line from 20k ATH
- Overall market sentiment is still bearish
- We continue to make slightly higher highs on lower time frames with little to no volume
- The small H&S I pointed to in my last chart has broken down, its neckline was tested last night before getting slapped right back down below it
- 50 and 200 EMA were touched by the price before rejecting it and slamming it back down

Taking all these thing into consideration, I will still favor bearish plays over bullish ones for the time being. We can see that a much larger head and shoulders has formed, with our previous H&S now making up a portion of its head. The target for this breakdown, should it occur, is 7.3-7.5k

Apart from this, we had a Bear Flag form when we dropped from our rejection at the downtrend line from ATH which has now broken down in a very obvious manner. Target for this flag is 7.6-7.7k.

At the moment, the .382 Fib is acting as support and has held pretty well. We may continue to bounce around the area until the Bears finally decide to push us through it where we will finally reach out target for the first H&S pattern pointed out in my previous chart. This also happens to coincide with the 0.5 Fib level so we may get a little bounce from there. You can definitely take short profits at that level and open up a small long position for a short term trade.

Once the 0.5 Fib is broken, however, I see us shooting down and bouncing around the .682 for a bit before eventually breaking it and hitting our targets. Look for reversal signs near the .682 We need massive volume if we are going to reverse from that level and attempt a break of the Trend Line once more.

To reiterate:

- Second H&S has formed engulfing previous H&S within it. (Target 7.3-7.5k)
- Bear Flag has broken down which was formed from rejection at downtrend line from ATH (Target 7.6-7.7k)
- 50 and 200 EMA Continue to act as strong resistance
- Bear market is still in full effect

Trade carefully friends!

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