As euphoria grows more and more reminiscent of the market peak in late 2021, there is one strong warning signal emerging. Based on the data from LookIntoBitcoin, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC underwent a considerable drop yesterday just as Bitcoin managed to break above $60,000. This figure dropped from 2,159 to 2,092, which inversely mirrors a rise in the number of addresses exceeding 100 BTC in mid-October 2023 (just a day or two before the fake news about Bitcoin Spot ETF approval kickstarted this steep part of the rally). While this does not necessarily warrant the end of the rally, it is a significant development that should not be overlooked (as it may suggest a change in the large speculator’s stance, which, up until yesterday, seemed very serious). Since this could potentially foreshadow a significant pullback in the market, we advise a caution to market participants.
Illustration 1.01
Interestingly, Bitcoin halted a decline slightly below the trendline, which connects peaks from the early stage of the rally.
Illustration 1.02
The price deviating too far from its 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA also makes a case for the pullback (retracement toward these moving averages).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.02
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Comment:
There was no significant change in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC overnight. But there was an interesting article from Coindesk, which suggested Bitcoin held by crypto miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021.
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