Bullish trend is breaking down at a fast pace

Bitcoin has been experiencing significant volatility over the past two weeks, with its price oscillating around the $70,000 price tag. This pattern of sideways-moving price action starkly contrasts with the robust and consistent upward trajectory observed in the months leading up to Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs. In the previous update on Bitcoin, we outlined how RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all turned to the downside on the daily chart. Since then, these indicators have failed to reverse toward the upside, and the ADX has continued to decline, suggesting the bullish trend is losing momentum at a fast pace. In conclusion, all of these developments are worrisome and require investors’ attention.

In regard to Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC, they have been rising since around 11th March 2024 (but the rise has slowed down in the past two weeks). Nevertheless, they are still way below the peak established in late February 2024, indicating large speculators may not have much appetite for Bitcoin at current prices. The rise in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC has also slowed down recently. As such, a drop in these figures could foreshadow a substantial move to the downside for Bitcoin. Therefore, we will keep paying close attention to these metrics.

Illustration 1.01

The image above shows the daily graph of BTCUSD. The red arrow illustrates declining volume accompanying rising price, a questionable development.

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the ascending trendline. The setup we introduced in the previous idea, with the short position entry getting triggered by a breakout below the trendline and stop-loss above it, remains valid (targeting $63,000).

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Comment:

Illustration 1.03

Bitcoin is seemingly forming a pattern that resembles a triangle or wedge on the 4-hour chart.