Exciting stuff happening with Bitcoin today! The Bulls have just woken up after a nice nap and absolutely RAMMED their horns RIGHT UP THE BEARS ARSE!! And the bulls have the bears on their heels!
I would like to take a moment to express my condolences and prayers to those who have fled, those who are still in and those who have lost loved ones in Ukraine. I stand with Ukraine and uproar the resistance that Ukraine is making against the completely inexcusable actions of a premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified invasion by a sadistic leader and has materialized through a series of flat out lies to his country's citizens; just to try and relive in the fallacy of the past. Stand Tall, Fly Straight, Ukraine is here to stay.
I addressed that at first because the biggest reason besides bitcoins chart patterns having this pattern already setup to make this pattern happen, but there needed to be a fundamental reason not just a technical reason for this pattern to happen. The sanctions that have been taken against Russia and Belarus by almost all of the countries of NATO that were set in place to essentially demolish the Russian Economy and freeze any assets it had and the ability to trade through SWIFT caused the stock markets to make a dive that was beyond massive (for a stock market anyhow.. in Crypto, well we have these sized pullbacks, +20% and still maintain a bull market) <---- Just as we have in the crypto markets. The run on the banks and ATM cash machines that has happened in Russia and the Ukraine and the fact that both countries have legalized cryptocurrencies in the last 2 weeks has helped fuel the massive $7,000 green candle we have seen on the bitcoin chart today..
Lets dive deeper though into the technicals.
ANALYSIS:
This green, Luke Sywalker Boner, of a candle HAS BROKEN A MULTI-RESISTANCE STRUCTURE!!. Take a look here:
As you can see that multi-resistance structure consisted of 4 different resistance points that were causing issues for bitcoin after breaking our completely manipulated 52% drop in price that stayed within a very thin falling channel (which ultimately is bullish). In a direct aspect look of things, you can see that this pump above this multi-resistance structure has formed a W-Bottom and W-Breakout.
If we zoom out some we can see an even more relevant patter that is has been formed which is the KEY TO WHY THE BITCOIN BULL RUN NEVER ACTUALLY ENDED!!! All of the MoonBoy Mikes and Average Joes calling the bitcoin price drop as the start of the bear market.
Here you see from our first bottom at wick low @ $28,640 that connects with the bottom that got the blast through resistance points to break us out of the first bottom @ $29,750. This potential trend line then was tested a third time and held it with candle body supports @ $35,220. This makes this line a confirmed trend line now. This also makes it an ascending trend line at that. The bottom at $35,220 also makes a MACRO HIGHER LOW!!!! READ THAT AGAIN... A MACRO HIGHER LOW... well now think about our tops so far.. we had a top at $64,850 and then we dropped, made bottom, and then we ran the price back up to $69,900 and then dropped and now have made a W-Bottom.
Well lets see what other pattern resembles price action that has made 2 Higher Highs, and also has made a confirmed trend of Higher lows..... Oh yes that is an ASCENDING CHANNEL!! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY BULLISH CONFIRMATION THAT BITCOIN HAS MADE!!
Now this channel is not a very steep channel in regards to its ascending angle, but that is all due to the price manipulation and also market makers hiding its structure as well for those not well versed in charts to see it. It is hidden by the fact that it DOES HAVE HIGHER HIGHS BEING MADE, but the SECOND HIGH DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE THE TREND LINE THAT MAKES THE TREND CHANNEL
As you can see here..
One last piece of BULLISH confirmation has come to play out with todays pump that confirmed a W-Bottom & W-Breakout that has made our local bottom. This local bottom has also been supported by 2 of the longest and oldest ascending trend lines of support that were that bottom of the overall bitcoin ascending trend channel that has been made since inception.
What does this local W-Bottom & W--Breakout confirm?? IT CONFIRMS AN ADAM & W-FORMATION MACRO DOUBLE BOTTOM! The MACRO W-BREAKOUT THAT HAS BEEN FORMED SINCE OUR $64.8k TOP WILL BE CONFIRMED FOR EACH FIB EXT LEVEL THAT IS ABOVE US AS RESISTANCE RIGHT NOW THAT IS BROKEN AND HELD AS SUPPORT.
The resistance that held down our $7,000 Pump Today was held by the Daily 100EMA and the .55 Fib Extension level.
If you looked closely and noticed the difference on the charts, of where the daily 200EMA is in relation to the .55 FIb Ext level, there is a reason for that. They are two difference charts. The chart above and the chart below is that the chart above is for the Bitstamp Exchange (exchange specific chart that holds the most data) and then the one i am mostly posting form is the ALL Time History Bitcoin Index chart (goes back even further than Bitstamps chart with candles). But the reason why there is a difference in the price placement of the FIB Extension levels is due to lowest point made in the bear market of 2015.
The low point of the Bitstamp chart came at $151 on 1/15/2015 shown below:
And on the ALL Time History Bitcoin Index chart the bottom came in at $159 on 8/18/2015 shown below:
The placement of each the second and third plot point of the Fib Extension are exactly the same. 2nd plot @ $19,815 and 3rd plot @ $3,215
The significance and the more relevant one comes with which chart has the most data to evaluate from. Since the ALL Time history Bitcoin index chart has the most data. the placement of the FIB levels and the Exponential Moving Averages are the more accurate.
PRICE PREDICTION
Seeing that the daily 200EMA is above the .55 FIb Ext level on the Index chart means that the strongest EMA of resistance is still above the .55 FIb ext, which means we will break that FIb level in order to test the Daily 200EMA, of which we will see a possible rejection but then the .55 FIb Ext level will hold as support because of the daily 13EMA, 21EMA, 55EMA, and the 100EMA all bringing up the rear and providing support at that fib level. Then off thebounce of the .55 FIb we will break the daily 200EMA, of which the next stop.. the .618 Fib Ext.
Usually this would be a challenge but given that we broke the .618 Fib Ext on our second top, and the ONLY REASON we came back below it was due to a complete manipulation of the price, that would make our next price target either the .706 Fib ext level at $94k or quite possibly the .786 Fib Ext Level at $138k. We could possibly see either of these price levels at the .618 fib level by the beginning of April 2022, at the .706 fib level by late May 2022 and the .786 fib level by August of 2022..
OF which we would then see another pullback for bitcoin to cool off before its macro 5 wave (for you elliot wave theory idiots out there).. The parabolic blow off top run to the Full 1 Fib Ext level would look to start in Late October to Early November 2022, and then would run us up to the price level of around $386k by February 2023.
THIS IS **IF** BITCOINS PRICE ACTION DECIDES TO GO ON AN ALL OUT TEAR THAT SMASHES THROUGH RESISTANCE LEVELS AS IT DID IN 2020 and 2021 going from the low of $3800 up to $69.9k
After doing some simulations, based of previous price action moves and extrapolations of candlestick patterns made from the first leg of the bull flag super cycle made so far, we could possibly see something that looks like this:
*** This simulated and extrapolated price action projection should not be taken as the only way the price action will go, future fundamental events & catalysts can and would deviate the price action from this extrapolated and simulated projection. Please understand that you should always be keeping an eye on the markets as they are very dynamic and always is an on-going and ever-changing situation. Please act in the nature that is best associated for your risk tolerance as an investor. Do not Trade what you cannot afford to lose to begin with. This projection is not financial advice and is only my opinion of the markets based on trend analysis and technical analysis patterns that I understand to mean specific things. Most people think I am crazy and call me crazy when I make price predictions such as these (but once it happens they usually are pretty quiet about me being crazy). For example, I saw weakness in the US stock market trend in early 2018 when we had the first pullback, then when Shocktober 2018 occured and we had a correction into bear market territory which created a double top for the year of 2018, I predicted a market crash to happen at the end of Q1 2020 based on the same trend analysis and technical analysis knowledge I use on the Bitcoin Chart. In October 2019 I had narrowed my prediction down to the crash happening on and was within 7 days of my exact date I chose for the crash to occur. I Predicted that the crash was going to start on Friday, February 28th 2020, but because this market crash turned into the COVID-19 CRASH, it started just 7 days earlier on February 21, 2020. Having that kind of skill in the charts to call a crash 25 months prior to it actually happening and then being within 1 weeks time of it actually happening. And the reason it happened before the prediction date was cause of a global pandemic that was going crazy... IS NOT JUST LUCK...
Here is the long standing chart Ive had since 2018 on the DJI. If you were to zoom in on the 2020 crash top, if COVID was not to have crashed the price, it was going to go back up and try for a local double top there too, yet didn't have the opportunity to do so.
I would like to take a moment to express my condolences and prayers to those who have fled, those who are still in and those who have lost loved ones in Ukraine. I stand with Ukraine and uproar the resistance that Ukraine is making against the completely inexcusable actions of a premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified invasion by a sadistic leader and has materialized through a series of flat out lies to his country's citizens; just to try and relive in the fallacy of the past. Stand Tall, Fly Straight, Ukraine is here to stay.
I addressed that at first because the biggest reason besides bitcoins chart patterns having this pattern already setup to make this pattern happen, but there needed to be a fundamental reason not just a technical reason for this pattern to happen. The sanctions that have been taken against Russia and Belarus by almost all of the countries of NATO that were set in place to essentially demolish the Russian Economy and freeze any assets it had and the ability to trade through SWIFT caused the stock markets to make a dive that was beyond massive (for a stock market anyhow.. in Crypto, well we have these sized pullbacks, +20% and still maintain a bull market) <---- Just as we have in the crypto markets. The run on the banks and ATM cash machines that has happened in Russia and the Ukraine and the fact that both countries have legalized cryptocurrencies in the last 2 weeks has helped fuel the massive $7,000 green candle we have seen on the bitcoin chart today..
Lets dive deeper though into the technicals.
ANALYSIS:
This green, Luke Sywalker Boner, of a candle HAS BROKEN A MULTI-RESISTANCE STRUCTURE!!. Take a look here:
As you can see that multi-resistance structure consisted of 4 different resistance points that were causing issues for bitcoin after breaking our completely manipulated 52% drop in price that stayed within a very thin falling channel (which ultimately is bullish). In a direct aspect look of things, you can see that this pump above this multi-resistance structure has formed a W-Bottom and W-Breakout.
If we zoom out some we can see an even more relevant patter that is has been formed which is the KEY TO WHY THE BITCOIN BULL RUN NEVER ACTUALLY ENDED!!! All of the MoonBoy Mikes and Average Joes calling the bitcoin price drop as the start of the bear market.
Here you see from our first bottom at wick low @ $28,640 that connects with the bottom that got the blast through resistance points to break us out of the first bottom @ $29,750. This potential trend line then was tested a third time and held it with candle body supports @ $35,220. This makes this line a confirmed trend line now. This also makes it an ascending trend line at that. The bottom at $35,220 also makes a MACRO HIGHER LOW!!!! READ THAT AGAIN... A MACRO HIGHER LOW... well now think about our tops so far.. we had a top at $64,850 and then we dropped, made bottom, and then we ran the price back up to $69,900 and then dropped and now have made a W-Bottom.
Well lets see what other pattern resembles price action that has made 2 Higher Highs, and also has made a confirmed trend of Higher lows..... Oh yes that is an ASCENDING CHANNEL!! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY BULLISH CONFIRMATION THAT BITCOIN HAS MADE!!
Now this channel is not a very steep channel in regards to its ascending angle, but that is all due to the price manipulation and also market makers hiding its structure as well for those not well versed in charts to see it. It is hidden by the fact that it DOES HAVE HIGHER HIGHS BEING MADE, but the SECOND HIGH DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE THE TREND LINE THAT MAKES THE TREND CHANNEL
As you can see here..
One last piece of BULLISH confirmation has come to play out with todays pump that confirmed a W-Bottom & W-Breakout that has made our local bottom. This local bottom has also been supported by 2 of the longest and oldest ascending trend lines of support that were that bottom of the overall bitcoin ascending trend channel that has been made since inception.
What does this local W-Bottom & W--Breakout confirm?? IT CONFIRMS AN ADAM & W-FORMATION MACRO DOUBLE BOTTOM! The MACRO W-BREAKOUT THAT HAS BEEN FORMED SINCE OUR $64.8k TOP WILL BE CONFIRMED FOR EACH FIB EXT LEVEL THAT IS ABOVE US AS RESISTANCE RIGHT NOW THAT IS BROKEN AND HELD AS SUPPORT.
The resistance that held down our $7,000 Pump Today was held by the Daily 100EMA and the .55 Fib Extension level.
If you looked closely and noticed the difference on the charts, of where the daily 200EMA is in relation to the .55 FIb Ext level, there is a reason for that. They are two difference charts. The chart above and the chart below is that the chart above is for the Bitstamp Exchange (exchange specific chart that holds the most data) and then the one i am mostly posting form is the ALL Time History Bitcoin Index chart (goes back even further than Bitstamps chart with candles). But the reason why there is a difference in the price placement of the FIB Extension levels is due to lowest point made in the bear market of 2015.
The low point of the Bitstamp chart came at $151 on 1/15/2015 shown below:
And on the ALL Time History Bitcoin Index chart the bottom came in at $159 on 8/18/2015 shown below:
The placement of each the second and third plot point of the Fib Extension are exactly the same. 2nd plot @ $19,815 and 3rd plot @ $3,215
The significance and the more relevant one comes with which chart has the most data to evaluate from. Since the ALL Time history Bitcoin index chart has the most data. the placement of the FIB levels and the Exponential Moving Averages are the more accurate.
PRICE PREDICTION
Seeing that the daily 200EMA is above the .55 FIb Ext level on the Index chart means that the strongest EMA of resistance is still above the .55 FIb ext, which means we will break that FIb level in order to test the Daily 200EMA, of which we will see a possible rejection but then the .55 FIb Ext level will hold as support because of the daily 13EMA, 21EMA, 55EMA, and the 100EMA all bringing up the rear and providing support at that fib level. Then off thebounce of the .55 FIb we will break the daily 200EMA, of which the next stop.. the .618 Fib Ext.
Usually this would be a challenge but given that we broke the .618 Fib Ext on our second top, and the ONLY REASON we came back below it was due to a complete manipulation of the price, that would make our next price target either the .706 Fib ext level at $94k or quite possibly the .786 Fib Ext Level at $138k. We could possibly see either of these price levels at the .618 fib level by the beginning of April 2022, at the .706 fib level by late May 2022 and the .786 fib level by August of 2022..
OF which we would then see another pullback for bitcoin to cool off before its macro 5 wave (for you elliot wave theory idiots out there).. The parabolic blow off top run to the Full 1 Fib Ext level would look to start in Late October to Early November 2022, and then would run us up to the price level of around $386k by February 2023.
THIS IS **IF** BITCOINS PRICE ACTION DECIDES TO GO ON AN ALL OUT TEAR THAT SMASHES THROUGH RESISTANCE LEVELS AS IT DID IN 2020 and 2021 going from the low of $3800 up to $69.9k
After doing some simulations, based of previous price action moves and extrapolations of candlestick patterns made from the first leg of the bull flag super cycle made so far, we could possibly see something that looks like this:
*** This simulated and extrapolated price action projection should not be taken as the only way the price action will go, future fundamental events & catalysts can and would deviate the price action from this extrapolated and simulated projection. Please understand that you should always be keeping an eye on the markets as they are very dynamic and always is an on-going and ever-changing situation. Please act in the nature that is best associated for your risk tolerance as an investor. Do not Trade what you cannot afford to lose to begin with. This projection is not financial advice and is only my opinion of the markets based on trend analysis and technical analysis patterns that I understand to mean specific things. Most people think I am crazy and call me crazy when I make price predictions such as these (but once it happens they usually are pretty quiet about me being crazy). For example, I saw weakness in the US stock market trend in early 2018 when we had the first pullback, then when Shocktober 2018 occured and we had a correction into bear market territory which created a double top for the year of 2018, I predicted a market crash to happen at the end of Q1 2020 based on the same trend analysis and technical analysis knowledge I use on the Bitcoin Chart. In October 2019 I had narrowed my prediction down to the crash happening on and was within 7 days of my exact date I chose for the crash to occur. I Predicted that the crash was going to start on Friday, February 28th 2020, but because this market crash turned into the COVID-19 CRASH, it started just 7 days earlier on February 21, 2020. Having that kind of skill in the charts to call a crash 25 months prior to it actually happening and then being within 1 weeks time of it actually happening. And the reason it happened before the prediction date was cause of a global pandemic that was going crazy... IS NOT JUST LUCK...
Here is the long standing chart Ive had since 2018 on the DJI. If you were to zoom in on the 2020 crash top, if COVID was not to have crashed the price, it was going to go back up and try for a local double top there too, yet didn't have the opportunity to do so.
Trade active:
We were unfortunately not able to hold the highs we broke as a support level after getting rejected off the 200 EMA daily after volume dropped off.
We are still holding within our ascending triangle which is why this trade is not yet closed.
Using the white trend line that we started at our bottom made @ $36k just before breaking the multi-structure resistance level, and then using the .55 Fib level which has been our resistance, you can see we have a clear ascending triangle formation. We also have another ascending triangle of a bit longer scale, if use the same resistance level of the .55 fib and then use the wick low white trend line that has been tested at our macro double bottom at 32k and then again at $34k you can see another ascending triangle.
unfortunately we also do have a bearish side to look at as well. Using the white trend line coming down from $51k and then the same white trend line form wick lows that i just mentioned. We do have a symmetrical triangle. Symm. Trinagles are continuation patterns of either bullish or bearish moves depending on the previous move.
Is this Symm. Trinagle the bearish continuation pattern before we create our second flag pole downward?
If so we would be extrapolating a 2nd flag pole down of about 43% (measuring from our falling wedge breakdown top of $58k down to our $32k bottom)
We were unfortunately not able to hold the highs we broke as a support level after getting rejected off the 200 EMA daily after volume dropped off.
We are still holding within our ascending triangle which is why this trade is not yet closed.
Using the white trend line that we started at our bottom made @ $36k just before breaking the multi-structure resistance level, and then using the .55 Fib level which has been our resistance, you can see we have a clear ascending triangle formation. We also have another ascending triangle of a bit longer scale, if use the same resistance level of the .55 fib and then use the wick low white trend line that has been tested at our macro double bottom at 32k and then again at $34k you can see another ascending triangle.
unfortunately we also do have a bearish side to look at as well. Using the white trend line coming down from $51k and then the same white trend line form wick lows that i just mentioned. We do have a symmetrical triangle. Symm. Trinagles are continuation patterns of either bullish or bearish moves depending on the previous move.
Is this Symm. Trinagle the bearish continuation pattern before we create our second flag pole downward?
If so we would be extrapolating a 2nd flag pole down of about 43% (measuring from our falling wedge breakdown top of $58k down to our $32k bottom)
