Hey all Gamblers Paradise here with another crucial update on the Bitcoin Price Action.
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We were unfortunately not able to hold the highs we broke as a support level after getting rejected off the 200 EMA daily after volume dropped off.
We are still holding within our ascending triangle which is why this trade is not yet closed.
Using the white trend line that we started at our bottom made @ $36k just before breaking the multi-structure resistance level, and then using the .55 Fib level which has been our resistance, you can see we have a clear ascending triangle formation. We also have another ascending triangle of a bit longer scale, if use the same resistance level of the .55 fib and then use the wick low white trend line that has been tested at our macro double bottom at 32k and then again at $34k you can see another ascending triangle.
These are marked by in the corner for both ascending triangles with a Green 1 and a Green 2.
In a bullish scenario this would be the first big key step to starting our second parabolic flag pole after our meteoric rise from $3800 to $64k. Our first price target would be to break our $45.5k wick tops and also the .55 fib ext at $46.5k which this move should bring us up to right about $48k-$50k which would also break our ascending triangle to the upside. Then as long as we are supported on top of the .55 fib level, its a move back up to the .618 which was already broken and also price action supported by the Daily 13EMA and 21EMA above the .618 level when we made our ATH of 69k. We should be seeing us stop short of the .618 and find support above the $58k and then $64k for some consolidation and then just blast straight through the .618 fib level, up to about $74k.
Unfortunately we also do have 3 a bearish possibilities to look at as well. We do have 3 overlaying and extending symmetrical triangles. Symm. Trinagles are continuation patterns of either bullish or bearish moves depending on the previous move.
Short Term Symmetrical Triangle: Red 1
A breakdown from our recent rejection off the daily 200 EMA has seen a drop of about 15.8% and this symmetrical triangle is marked with a Red 1. This drop would most likely happen within the next 2 weeks
Mid-Term Symmetrical Triangle: Red 2
A breakdown using our first move from the bottom of 32k up to the high of 45k, which would be the text book extrapolation point to use, would make us look at another 25% drop which would bring us to test our lowest point in about 9 months and would test the $28.5k wick low from back in June 2021. In this extrapolation we also do have the chance for major fake outs, which would break below the $28.5k low and wick down to our 200EMA Weekly which at the break down point of the symmetrical triangle would be around $26.5k to $27.5k.
Longer Term Symmetrical Triangle: Red 3
Or Is this Symm. Trinagle the bearish SCREW YOU pattern that market makers are going to pull?
If so we would be extrapolating a 2nd flag pole down of about 44%. This would be measuring from our falling wedge breakdown top of $58k down to our $32k bottom which also broke our Weekly time frame 13EMA and 21EMA and would most likely be taken out the longest symmetrical triangle we have marked by a Red 3.
This drop in price would measure out to drop us below our Weekly 200EMA. Which has only happened twice in Bitcoin history - the $3100 bottom in 2018 and then the Covid Crash of 2020.. Bot of which the price action was still within a bear market.
But this extrapolation would have us breaking below the Weekly 200EMA and move down to the our .382 FIb Ext. level. Which for bitcoin is the routine habitual move in a fib ext. after being rejected from the .618 fib level.
In all cases there is merit for the price action move. This is a a time of waiting if you do not have a position in the market right now and waiting for confirmations to start happening.
Right now with my current position still being in from $36.7k. I have a staggered stop profit limits setup. And if I am stopped out also a buy back setup.
If the drop starts as of the beginning of this week most likely starting tomorrow when the markets open back up with a rejection from the daily 13EMA or 21EMA then my stop profit + Buy Back Limits & new stop loss setup looks like this:
Starting Monday, if the drop happens in about a week, which would be a rejection toward the end of Red 1 by either the daily 55EMA or 100EMA , then my stop profit limits + Buy Back limits & new stop loss setups looks like this:
