godtrix

Death Cross Analysis

godtrix Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Hi guys,

This is the famous Death Cross most people already knew, but not many keeping attend to. So I want to share my views and give everyone a better look at the Death Cross and how I identify the BUY Signal here.

In case you don't know what Death Cross is, you can setup one on your chart right now with this setting:
1) 1-day bitcoin chart
2) 50-EMA (short-term)
3) 200-EMA (long-term)

Death Cross is when 50-EMA cross below 200-EMA.
I use EMA which gives me a more accurate data than the MA.

And this Death Cross is an indicator for LONG-Term Big Trend guide, so to assist you on planning your own trading strategy. Because for trading, the no.1 most important 1st step to look out for, is the LONG-Term Big Trend, then only you look at what your strategy is going to be. And because if you go against the LONG-Term Big Trend, you're asking for trouble.

Back on the Chart, the orange circle is where Death Cross happened, and the light green circle is where bitcoin price cross above the 50-EMA, this effectively confirms the uptrend is here or coming very soon.

You: So what if it's a bull trap and it went back down again?
Me: There's no 100% perfect indicators in the world, so we must have plan B. My strategy to tackle that problem is to use DCA, meaning you don't use 100% of your money to buy at that point, instead you buy with 30% or lesser, then put up 1 or more limit orders at lower levels to grab price dips.

You: So which lower level for DCA do you think is good?
Me: I've another indicator which is the 2-Year MA Multiplier and 300-WMA level. So I'll put a buy limit order at around 2Y-MA bottom line and another one at 300-WMA line.

My strategy never sell any trade at a loss, yes, I don't have Stop Loss, from my experience and all my strategy backtest and real-test has shown me that in long run, I'll not make more money using stop loss. And stop loss causes emotional FUD, which is no.1 killer in trading, you'll lose your sense and do stupid things like panic sell and panic buy.

Alright, right now, price hasn't cross above 50-EMA yet, so hold your horses, don't rush to buy in, setup your own Death Cross indicators on your chart and monitor for the price to cross 50-EMA line.

Good Luck and hope this helps.
Comment:
Hm, you see my chart has MACD and CCI. I've drawn a line to show the divergence formed. It's additional help to give us a stronger confirmation for the uptrend coming.
Trade active:
gyazo.com/d88005ca67...9a22c0b0c3a8c9b1452c

It has crossed 50-EMA. You can choose to enter position anytime now or personally I'll wait for 2 days before entry, just to make sure.
Comment:
gyazo.com/4b1cfcb4aa...750bc40ec52a6a020232

Oh crap, price reversed. Not good, might be heading 36k support. Right now it's very risky, if price doesn't recover above 42k within a day or two, then it might be back into Bear market.

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