BTC, marching for 6700 dollars! is this a bull reversal?
Oh! trading BTC is difficult. yes, not only me, but many TA's thought the same. BTC didn't make the bottom, chart does not look right, it will drop to confirm a divergence..no but it didn't! in the past, btc has made so many runs, before this heavy bear market from Jan. It only needed to hit the bottom, whether it is oversold or not, for now, i think bulls have two desperate reasons.
1. close weekly candle above 67 to maintain life, bullishness.
2. to short it from above level
3. market cap, on balance volume touched resistance, so it needs to test upper resistance
4.long bull div on daily, weekly basis
5. 4hr bull div
6. alt coins hit bottom line of descending triangle, needs to test upper levels
ok, so there are more reasons that it can go, but it didn't win over people who bet on dropping. because BTC did not create a perfect reversal sturucture like it did back in so many months! it usually has to make a lower low or double bottom or something to create a run upwards. but the weekly close, maybe ETF coming up, many things made btc to go up. anyways, i do think this is not the start of bull reversal not yet.
my another crazy prospection for the coming days.
okay, so now we see a rising wedge coming upwards. it seems not really healthy, you guys so rising wedges fall to the bottom real hard, like last 7400 to 6200 drop. so another rising wedge is being created now. so this pattern risks a drop at some point, needs to find bottom level again to go up.
at this point, 1hr and many indicators are overbought, so i think the peak for today and early tomorrow can be 65.5/66 or upper 66 at the most. i think if it wants to challenge 67, it needs to recharge its battery by retracing to bottom levels. if it just go to 67, i think retracement will be VERY heavy, we risk going to 6200 and below to 6100, or lower. so btc, will try to be smart, not going again to the bearish zone, but try to make 6300 zone firm support and kick back up again.
and at 17th it will challenge upper levels at 66~68, if that closes above 6700 17th, it will be extremely bullish from then, which will target 7k at top resistance line of yearly descending triangle pattern, if we break that, show signal of bull market,yes maybe bear market is over. but i do think it will fall heavy from 67 zone to bottom support line, to 59 or 61 we will see.
i really think, if we break 7k and go up, that means we finally escape the bear market. i may stoploss some of my shorts but i will be fine, because that will be the start of the bullrun. but, now, it is very early to say any of these, we are still very bearish, i still think we need to test bottom levels, not only btc price but the market cap, and volume also. we are almost there i think.
so this chart also is my trading plan, that i prospect. so i add short at up 65, 66 level, sell that 63, go long there, try to sell it around 17th daily close. if we go to 67 level today, or tomorrow, i will update if that happens. guys again, this is only my speculation, idea,
so don't believe this have your own trading plan.
1. open longs
6280~6350
sell:65~66, 67
2. open short
short term open 65~66,66.8/sell 6350/6288
17~19th(open short up levels, if we do not close over 6700 or 6800, we will see)
for ETH
open short 220~250/stoploss 320dollars
target 190/170
so, happy trading!
1. close weekly candle above 67 to maintain life, bullishness.
2. to short it from above level
3. market cap, on balance volume touched resistance, so it needs to test upper resistance
4.long bull div on daily, weekly basis
5. 4hr bull div
6. alt coins hit bottom line of descending triangle, needs to test upper levels
ok, so there are more reasons that it can go, but it didn't win over people who bet on dropping. because BTC did not create a perfect reversal sturucture like it did back in so many months! it usually has to make a lower low or double bottom or something to create a run upwards. but the weekly close, maybe ETF coming up, many things made btc to go up. anyways, i do think this is not the start of bull reversal not yet.
my another crazy prospection for the coming days.
okay, so now we see a rising wedge coming upwards. it seems not really healthy, you guys so rising wedges fall to the bottom real hard, like last 7400 to 6200 drop. so another rising wedge is being created now. so this pattern risks a drop at some point, needs to find bottom level again to go up.
at this point, 1hr and many indicators are overbought, so i think the peak for today and early tomorrow can be 65.5/66 or upper 66 at the most. i think if it wants to challenge 67, it needs to recharge its battery by retracing to bottom levels. if it just go to 67, i think retracement will be VERY heavy, we risk going to 6200 and below to 6100, or lower. so btc, will try to be smart, not going again to the bearish zone, but try to make 6300 zone firm support and kick back up again.
and at 17th it will challenge upper levels at 66~68, if that closes above 6700 17th, it will be extremely bullish from then, which will target 7k at top resistance line of yearly descending triangle pattern, if we break that, show signal of bull market,yes maybe bear market is over. but i do think it will fall heavy from 67 zone to bottom support line, to 59 or 61 we will see.
i really think, if we break 7k and go up, that means we finally escape the bear market. i may stoploss some of my shorts but i will be fine, because that will be the start of the bullrun. but, now, it is very early to say any of these, we are still very bearish, i still think we need to test bottom levels, not only btc price but the market cap, and volume also. we are almost there i think.
so this chart also is my trading plan, that i prospect. so i add short at up 65, 66 level, sell that 63, go long there, try to sell it around 17th daily close. if we go to 67 level today, or tomorrow, i will update if that happens. guys again, this is only my speculation, idea,
so don't believe this have your own trading plan.
1. open longs
6280~6350
sell:65~66, 67
2. open short
short term open 65~66,66.8/sell 6350/6288
17~19th(open short up levels, if we do not close over 6700 or 6800, we will see)
for ETH
open short 220~250/stoploss 320dollars
target 190/170
so, happy trading!
Comment:
ok guys this is really fun. lol. with no volume, no bull div daily for btc, it is marching forward! this is where traders get nervous, because, it doesn't match your predictions. but no panic yet, for shorters, for longs(good!) but, i do believe we will see retracement to 6350, or even 6280~6300 level on saturday. i added some more shorts at 6550, waiting for 6600 levels. for eth, i added 222, waiting for 230dollars. i plan to sell these, for now at retracement. i plan to go long at some point Saturday, if we manage to stay above the red bearish could on 4hr.
Comment:
short term idea for ETH, those of you opening shorts be little cautious shorting ETH. i think, following BTC price first, and opening short on ETH is important. BTC's weekly close nearing direction needs to be clear first, so if you are shorting ETH, you can wait for btc 6.7~6.8zone, if that is somewhat bearish, you can short ETH at that point, or if btc bullish we can open longs. so take care.
Comment:
oh this chart for ETH
Comment:
another rising wedge? possible. just like last time, we went to 7.4 and dropped...what will happen this time? the pattern that btc shows from last month, difficult to adjust, but i think its because of low volume here. they push, retrace a little bit, hold support, push more, retrace a bit, hold support. usually btc sparks up 500, 600dollars, retraces heavily sparks much more. this shows weakness of btc, because rising wedges at the end, it becomes bearish when there are many sellers at the top level, which brings heavy drop. short term that price is 6600zone, and 6700 too. so keep this pattern too in mind.
Comment:
ok guys. the rising wedge, a mini one inside the big wedge broke down. now the green cloud in small time frames support this move, 6357, so i believe it will give a bounce to 6480 or even 6550, but i do think it would visit back to 63 levels, maybe in the next 12~24hours or so. because once the green cloud support vanishes from 4 hours from now, it could become weaker. i sold 50% of my shorts opened at 6460/6550/6570, at 6411, and i am actually waiting to short more when it comes up. i do not think this will reverse to 67 now, since the wedge broke down, it needs to test upper levels after some confirmation at bottom has been made. i still think long position entry, at early 6300 or even 6280, 90 level can come, so i open them too incase it comes(stoploss is 6260). so the lines i drew are some scenarios that can happen, might not, but keep an eye on it.
Comment:
so this is an idea that might happen, might not, a little update with entry from previous chart above. i entered long at 6420, just for scalping, plan to sell this with few 50~60 points, plan to open short. 63zone, might not come again, but it is worth to imagine because, i do not think bottom is being put. for this reversal rising wedge pattern, btv would try to make higher lows, but make the rsi go down to make a hidden bull div, so if wedge support breaks down everything is invalidated, and we go much below. so if a rising wedge is formed like this, it is worth to test our imagination. long stoploss is 6240, which would invalidate this whole upwards move.
Comment:
Ok.i entered long with ETH at 205dollars.i think btc will try again 6550/6580 and even 6620 level.maybe 6700?lets see.target is 215~220dollars short term lets see. Heavy retracement will come after we make a double top formation with bearish div.
Comment:
Sold eth at 213 little scalping.i do think we are not yet over with retracing today it might try 66 again but retrace back.see if 6240 breaks down because that means this run was a bull trap.however i do think they will defend 63area so try to open longs again 62 63zone as the charts i uploaded. I opened shorts again at 6530 will see.if 6240 breaks i hold, if 63 is supported i sell and go long.so weak no volume weekend, try to have time with your family, because i am^^
Comment:
ok, bullish btc, 1hr, 2hr green clouds as support. in anyway, heavy drop would come. check black, blue, purple arrow lines. 3 scenario that can happen in coming days in high probability. i believe, without good setup, to go high, this needs to reset bottom levels again next week and make a hidden bull div on indicators or something.
Comment:
Ok btc retraced as expected made another higher low around 6375,made little divergence on time frames,short term target is 66.i got in btc longs at 6420 lets see what btc can show us after making somewhat short term double bottom at 63.5~7.
Comment:
guys, two scenarios here. first one is this, we keep making rising wedges to upside, daily 20EMA is strong resistance, which it might not penetrate at once, it might come down a bit and go up for 6600~6680, or even higher. so keep this in mind, if you are in margin btc its good to take some profit around 21EMA, 6588, and leave the rest for next upmove. if 21ema is broken upwards, we will at least make that support for some more days, more bullishness for btc.
Comment:
second scenario is we make a triangle, with top at 6589, and trending down. so if we close at 6510~20 tomorrow, with a peak to 6540, it might mean a boring triangle pattern could come for some time, that means you can open short position around 6540~50, see if a shooting star or something appears at short time frames. but anyway, i do believe btc would try the top wedge resistance around 6680~6780, so watch out. i am still long from 6420, i will see daily close coming by, which i will decide to sell or not.