Bitcoin Daily Update (day 299)

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Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA = Fully bullish but currently challenging S MA.

Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Symmetrical triangle / ih&s
Horizontals: Continues to be a lot of support in the $3,900 range which is my most bullish indicator right now. $4,100+ continues to be formidable resistance.
Trendline: Connecting to the top of the wicks from November 29th and December 24th for bear TL.
Parabolic SAR: $4,145 - right on the TL / top of the triangle
Futures Curve: The backwardation is more important to me (bullish) than the shorts heading back to support. They could spend a lot of time there while price rallies. However the spread is narrowing.
BTCUSDSHORTS: The way shorts are heading back to support is very bearish imo.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.04%
TD’ Sequential: G4
Ichimoku Cloud: Was checking the cloud today on some alts and was amazing how they are turning bullish while BTC’ is nowhere near that (traditional settings)
Relative Strength Index: Supporting > 50
Average Directional Index: Turning up while +DI diverges from -DI in a bullish manner but still too early to consider it a bull trend by the ADX.
Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +6% | 1m: +12%
Bollinger Bands: Consolidating > MA during squeeze is bullish. MA turning down is bearish.
Stochastic Oscillator: Nearing overbought territory

Summary: Not much has changed. With the amount of support > $3,900 and the amount of resistance around $4,100 I am confident that the next move will be violent regardless of which way it breaks. That also leaves plenty of room to consolidate in a more narrow range toward the apex of the symmetrical triangle.

I considered cancelling my stop buy order on XBTH19 in favor of waiting for a close > than that area, but with the support and resistance becoming more defined and the range tightening I feel comfortable is in a good spot.

I find it very interesting how the daily cloud (traditional settings) on alts are turning bullish and threatening very nice long entries - if they can close above a thick cloud closely after the bullish Kumo twist. The best entries can happen when multiple signals come at once.

I am speaking of LTC and ETH specifically and it could be that they are front running a bounce... the cloud on BTC is nowhere near either of those metrics. Looks primed for one final dead cat bounce to trap in the last set of FOMO buyers who still have money before the rug gets pulled out from under their feet. Judging by social media there are still plenty of morons who have money and the market will remedy that before this bottom is found. Bitcoin dominance is at resistance (~50%) and appear to have just created a lower low, which is a strong signal of a potential alt bounce.

Again, if you want this bear market to end that this the last thing you want. We need BTC to break that resistance and get back over 80%.