Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a remarkable surge since the speculation surrounding a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut emerged. Recently, BTC hit an all-time high, reflecting the fervor in the market. However, it's essential to note that assets witnessing substantial increases often require a pullback or correction. Analyzing the daily timeframe from March 4th to March 13th, 2024, reveals indications of a bearish divergence pattern, suggesting an impending pullback. This anticipation materialized on March 14th and 15th, 2024, with BTC dropping from its all-time high of 73794 to 68166 at the time of writing, marking a decline of over 7% in just two days.
Assessment of Fed Rate Cut Possibility:
Despite the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut should inflation continue to decline, the likelihood remains slim. Data from the Fed Watch Tools indicate a 99.0% probability of the Fed maintaining an unchanged interest rate during the March FOMC meeting. This prediction also aligns with the fact that the Fed's emphasis on reducing the Core PCE Price Index to its target of 2% year-on-year, while it currently stands at 2.8%.
Technical Analysis and Implications:
In addition to the factors mentioned, a technical analysis reveals that Bitcoin's prolonged rally since early February is poised for a significant pullback. The stochastic indicator clearly shows a lower high while the price sets a higher high, indicating a weakening trend. The observed bearish divergence in the daily timeframe signals a potential reversal in the upward momentum. This corrective movement aligns with market dynamics and the absence of strong indications for a Fed rate cut. Therefore, traders and investors in the BTC market should exercise caution and anticipate increased volatility as the asset undergoes a corrective phase.
Conclusion:
The recent surge in Bitcoin's value amidst speculation surrounding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut has been remarkable. However, technical analysis suggests a high likelihood of a substantial pullback, as evidenced by the observed bearish divergence pattern and the weakening trend indicated by the stochastic indicator. Given the low probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, market participants should brace themselves for increased volatility and potential corrections in the Bitcoin market.
Assessment of Fed Rate Cut Possibility:
Despite the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut should inflation continue to decline, the likelihood remains slim. Data from the Fed Watch Tools indicate a 99.0% probability of the Fed maintaining an unchanged interest rate during the March FOMC meeting. This prediction also aligns with the fact that the Fed's emphasis on reducing the Core PCE Price Index to its target of 2% year-on-year, while it currently stands at 2.8%.
Technical Analysis and Implications:
In addition to the factors mentioned, a technical analysis reveals that Bitcoin's prolonged rally since early February is poised for a significant pullback. The stochastic indicator clearly shows a lower high while the price sets a higher high, indicating a weakening trend. The observed bearish divergence in the daily timeframe signals a potential reversal in the upward momentum. This corrective movement aligns with market dynamics and the absence of strong indications for a Fed rate cut. Therefore, traders and investors in the BTC market should exercise caution and anticipate increased volatility as the asset undergoes a corrective phase.
Conclusion:
The recent surge in Bitcoin's value amidst speculation surrounding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut has been remarkable. However, technical analysis suggests a high likelihood of a substantial pullback, as evidenced by the observed bearish divergence pattern and the weakening trend indicated by the stochastic indicator. Given the low probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, market participants should brace themselves for increased volatility and potential corrections in the Bitcoin market.