The last couple of days has been painful when you look at your profolio and felt anxious/confused whether the bull cycle of bitcoin is over.
Today I calmed down and look at the chart again, and now believes that 90% chance we are still in the bull market. The cycle fail in one condition where I would take profit and wait for the next bull cycle.
Several reasons why I believe bitcoin bull market is intact:
1. RSI -- My 2 RSI indicator (weekly) actually topped in Jan 2021, and RSI divergent has been continued throughout the last couple of months. What does it mean? It means bitcoin is very unlikely topped already. The blow off top is not just for bitcoin but for other asset classes as well --- if you look back at Gold, Silver bull run, you will find the blowoff top will always come with above 90 RSI. Current RSI structure happened before for gold/silver during the bull cycle too (cooling off before new highs).
2. Capitulation of leverage traders --- even the 5x players --- This is what I think the most reasonable explanation for this attack, of course shake out the weak hand as well.
3. bitcoin gain from prior tops --- first cycle till 2013 : 50 x ; second cycle till 2017 : 20 x ; currently we only topped 2 x, which is so small compare to prior cycles and I do not believe is the case. You could be looking at 2x for gold over 7 years or silver over 3-4 years during bull cycles.
Risk: If this is the beginning of the bear cycle, which I still find hard to believe, I would probably take profit at 25000 and forget about the 100k+ bitcoin moon area.
30k seems to have huge support and if it dips again, I would hope it hold well forming double bottom before rally again. HODLing strong, we are here for those big gains.
Today I calmed down and look at the chart again, and now believes that 90% chance we are still in the bull market. The cycle fail in one condition where I would take profit and wait for the next bull cycle.
Several reasons why I believe bitcoin bull market is intact:
1. RSI -- My 2 RSI indicator (weekly) actually topped in Jan 2021, and RSI divergent has been continued throughout the last couple of months. What does it mean? It means bitcoin is very unlikely topped already. The blow off top is not just for bitcoin but for other asset classes as well --- if you look back at Gold, Silver bull run, you will find the blowoff top will always come with above 90 RSI. Current RSI structure happened before for gold/silver during the bull cycle too (cooling off before new highs).
2. Capitulation of leverage traders --- even the 5x players --- This is what I think the most reasonable explanation for this attack, of course shake out the weak hand as well.
3. bitcoin gain from prior tops --- first cycle till 2013 : 50 x ; second cycle till 2017 : 20 x ; currently we only topped 2 x, which is so small compare to prior cycles and I do not believe is the case. You could be looking at 2x for gold over 7 years or silver over 3-4 years during bull cycles.
Risk: If this is the beginning of the bear cycle, which I still find hard to believe, I would probably take profit at 25000 and forget about the 100k+ bitcoin moon area.
30k seems to have huge support and if it dips again, I would hope it hold well forming double bottom before rally again. HODLing strong, we are here for those big gains.
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See attached charts:
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Purple area is structural similar to what we are seeing in bitcoin (in terms of 3 RSI I am using) --- which gives me high hope that we are likely not topped and just need sometime to grind those resistance level before final rally, really depends on when bitcoin regain 56000 level, could be in 2 months or 4 months. It will be a difficult time to trade bitcoin for sure
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