Random realization: If you take the region above the 52W MA during 2018-2000 (white line), take those candle patterns, and mash them together, you get a pattern which matches the current candles to a disturbing degree. The only difference being, of course, there wasn't a massive dump between the two pasted patterns. We dropped down multiple times in 2018 to test the 200W MA (light blue line).
The market seems to be taking this as a bullish signal that we are still near the 52W MA, which seems reasonable: I was buying my ass off in Jan/Feb 2020 after bitcoin rallied from 7k to 10k, only to get burned. Whatever the market was doing near 7k, the herd sentiment was giving signals that it was the bottom. The market is giving us those same EXACT candlestick patterns right now around 38k, and I can't help but feel a sense of deja vu of identical market sentiment. My urge to "just make a trade" wants me make the trade, just like back then, and I can imagine mostly everyone else is doing so, but my gut is urging me not to fomo in without some sort of greater confirmation. These are certainly wholesale prices in this 35-50k range. I would expect it to fall somewhere between 10-25k, but I don't think it's going down much further than that, short-term. Current price to mine is about 12k. Long-term, however, unless there's some sort of destruction of USD supply taking place, which I seriously doubt will ever happen, it's not unreasonable to be extremely bullish.
On the other hand, May seems like it could be a bullish month. April was certainly a disaster for prices, things seem awfully oversold. Maybe this is a good chance to follow my fomo for a short term position, similar to where bitcoin was ranging from 7-15k. But I shouldn't ignore my gut and become complacent with longs. How many taps does it take to break a glass floor? Especially with all these people jumping up and down on it, it looks kinda shaky, you know? With the FED meeting tomorrow, who really knows. It could go either way at this point.
I hope you find this useful and thanks for reading! What do you think will happen?
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets ;)
The market seems to be taking this as a bullish signal that we are still near the 52W MA, which seems reasonable: I was buying my ass off in Jan/Feb 2020 after bitcoin rallied from 7k to 10k, only to get burned. Whatever the market was doing near 7k, the herd sentiment was giving signals that it was the bottom. The market is giving us those same EXACT candlestick patterns right now around 38k, and I can't help but feel a sense of deja vu of identical market sentiment. My urge to "just make a trade" wants me make the trade, just like back then, and I can imagine mostly everyone else is doing so, but my gut is urging me not to fomo in without some sort of greater confirmation. These are certainly wholesale prices in this 35-50k range. I would expect it to fall somewhere between 10-25k, but I don't think it's going down much further than that, short-term. Current price to mine is about 12k. Long-term, however, unless there's some sort of destruction of USD supply taking place, which I seriously doubt will ever happen, it's not unreasonable to be extremely bullish.
On the other hand, May seems like it could be a bullish month. April was certainly a disaster for prices, things seem awfully oversold. Maybe this is a good chance to follow my fomo for a short term position, similar to where bitcoin was ranging from 7-15k. But I shouldn't ignore my gut and become complacent with longs. How many taps does it take to break a glass floor? Especially with all these people jumping up and down on it, it looks kinda shaky, you know? With the FED meeting tomorrow, who really knows. It could go either way at this point.
I hope you find this useful and thanks for reading! What do you think will happen?
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets ;)
Comment:
Typo correction: "2018-2000" should be "2018-2020"