Title says it all.
Its been an enormous bounce and if correct this is a chart pattern that as one of Barncore's go-to chartists has said - "has never happened before in a bear market." And he is right. Price has moved way passed the supposed tipping point of 0.618 and on a large time scale. So this should be bullish - right?
Well no, I don't think so. This trend is very overextended and who knows perhaps down the road I'll show some of you my workings of how a trend becomes "overextended." But it is very much my own work so thats for another day in another place.
And this for me is why crypto is the slipperiest market in the world for trading. It wasn't always this way. Look back to 2014 and you'll see a much simpler bear market bounce reversed at 0.618. Here price is at 0.87 from the top.
If this is a bear market it is the strangest bear market ever, and I'm sure I'm not the only one it has taken by surprise.
That said I'm confident it tops here at this 0.618 extension. Maybe there will be more short term fakeout, maybe it can take a bit longer, but I don't see price going much further than this.
And I'm not at all saying I expected this - I didn't. I really didn't think price would get much further than 0.618 - 0.7 but thats my one achilles heel in this - underestimating the algos and how far they will push price. But I dont think anyone that sees a lower low coming expected 0.87 or maybe even slightly higher.
Maybe I'll just stick to shorting GOLD after this - much easier. It hits that 0.618 and doesn't make a fuss and rolls over. But you have to wait quite a while for those moments lol.
That said, before any of you noisy longs think I'm too much of a poor bear, I am short some other alts, but it has been work in progress so I haven't published them all and they are going well. Hey - its unverifiable but its just the same as the hecklers with 0 charts that sell everything every top and buy everything right at the bottom lol. I dont have to reveal all my work. But again maybe I will show some of you my workings down the road.
...
If you're a hodler, please please do not listen to this call. I am trading on my work and building a short BTC position in this area, but this is purely experimental - I have never seen a chart pattern like this before and I'm guessing I'm on my own saying it tops here. The last thing you want to do is listen to me - you really could miss the macro wave 5 moonship and I dont want to be responsible for that. So please dont come back and say you sold everything here. If you haven't done the work I have there is no reason for you to sell in this very bullish period. The moon is coming up on the horizon I'm sure and good luck.
Anyhow I'm going to try and turn over a new leaf for this thread and not reply to hecklers, trolls etc. Just know that if you heckle my call but you yourself have 0 charts, or you think that cos you can say 4 syllable words like "fundamentals" means you have a stake in price action - then I do not think we have much in common and I wish you well on your free lunch journey.
Well thats it. This could be one of my last calls for a while - at least on TV. We'll see.
If you like what I do a "like" and/or a comment is appreciated.
See you at 20K.
Its been an enormous bounce and if correct this is a chart pattern that as one of Barncore's go-to chartists has said - "has never happened before in a bear market." And he is right. Price has moved way passed the supposed tipping point of 0.618 and on a large time scale. So this should be bullish - right?
Well no, I don't think so. This trend is very overextended and who knows perhaps down the road I'll show some of you my workings of how a trend becomes "overextended." But it is very much my own work so thats for another day in another place.
And this for me is why crypto is the slipperiest market in the world for trading. It wasn't always this way. Look back to 2014 and you'll see a much simpler bear market bounce reversed at 0.618. Here price is at 0.87 from the top.
If this is a bear market it is the strangest bear market ever, and I'm sure I'm not the only one it has taken by surprise.
That said I'm confident it tops here at this 0.618 extension. Maybe there will be more short term fakeout, maybe it can take a bit longer, but I don't see price going much further than this.
And I'm not at all saying I expected this - I didn't. I really didn't think price would get much further than 0.618 - 0.7 but thats my one achilles heel in this - underestimating the algos and how far they will push price. But I dont think anyone that sees a lower low coming expected 0.87 or maybe even slightly higher.
Maybe I'll just stick to shorting GOLD after this - much easier. It hits that 0.618 and doesn't make a fuss and rolls over. But you have to wait quite a while for those moments lol.
That said, before any of you noisy longs think I'm too much of a poor bear, I am short some other alts, but it has been work in progress so I haven't published them all and they are going well. Hey - its unverifiable but its just the same as the hecklers with 0 charts that sell everything every top and buy everything right at the bottom lol. I dont have to reveal all my work. But again maybe I will show some of you my workings down the road.
...
If you're a hodler, please please do not listen to this call. I am trading on my work and building a short BTC position in this area, but this is purely experimental - I have never seen a chart pattern like this before and I'm guessing I'm on my own saying it tops here. The last thing you want to do is listen to me - you really could miss the macro wave 5 moonship and I dont want to be responsible for that. So please dont come back and say you sold everything here. If you haven't done the work I have there is no reason for you to sell in this very bullish period. The moon is coming up on the horizon I'm sure and good luck.
Anyhow I'm going to try and turn over a new leaf for this thread and not reply to hecklers, trolls etc. Just know that if you heckle my call but you yourself have 0 charts, or you think that cos you can say 4 syllable words like "fundamentals" means you have a stake in price action - then I do not think we have much in common and I wish you well on your free lunch journey.
Well thats it. This could be one of my last calls for a while - at least on TV. We'll see.
If you like what I do a "like" and/or a comment is appreciated.
See you at 20K.
Comment:
Not advice.
Comment:
I have inverted BTC.D chart. Just like DXY it can be easier to read upside down as it is essentially a liquidation chart.
1/BTC.D is moving down and although it could bounce this double top suggests that it will see much lower lows which would ofc happen in a crypto capitulation.
This is why I choose a spread of coins for shorting. BTC has pumped 1K overnight, but thats ok because shipcoins I'm shorting are capitulating. So nothing lost nothing gained since yesterday.
BTC could have a real blow off top - here. I really dont know, but I do know whats down the road - I think.
1/BTC.D is moving down and although it could bounce this double top suggests that it will see much lower lows which would ofc happen in a crypto capitulation.
This is why I choose a spread of coins for shorting. BTC has pumped 1K overnight, but thats ok because shipcoins I'm shorting are capitulating. So nothing lost nothing gained since yesterday.
BTC could have a real blow off top - here. I really dont know, but I do know whats down the road - I think.
Comment:
Well its round number 60 - quite a frothy top. Nothing has changed for me.
Comment:
So hostile some of you with no charts. Its a bit like going to a french class, a judo class, any place where there is a subject or a skill and getting all up in yourself but without having done any work in that area. Only in trading and only in crypto.
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But I have to admit - the free lunch parade continues for now.
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I know most negative commenters on here dont really read what I write, but I did say it can have a blow off top. I've sold my alts that were capitulating because who knows what will happen to them after this Bitcoin move, and i'll simply DCA into BTC shorts from here.
Comment:
It may be very noisy here now, but we'll see how it is in a week or 2. This is the end for crypto for a very long time, blow off top or no blow off top it makes no difference.
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Mannymkay thinks I'm responsible for his short call going wrong. Its really incredible how entitled some of you are and how little you take responsibility of your own actions. Also thinks that I need a tin foil hat to see a major crash is coming. Well no I dont actually need a tin foil hat, I just work hard to see whats coming while the entitled crowd stand on the rail road complaining about others and circle patting themselves on the back.
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Maybe I will make Michael Burry a tin foil hat.
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I'm back, but I got banned as one of the lovely trolls here posts 30 something troll comments and then reports me for a minor curse word.
I'll have to use poetic language to get my point across as trolls are in the midst.
If you notice I'm suddenly not here I probably got reported again. I will try to keep it clean, but it is a challenge to not fully express at times with so many noisy children on my pages.
A big hello to Kyo, apparently the only adult in this crypto creche.
Anyhow nothing has changed for me. I've been DCA my short position in this frothy top. Btw that doesn't mean i'm a blind upside down hodler. I am using fibs, oscillators, etc, but I recognise the froth and react to that.
Once BTC gets rocking to the downside I'm going to open the group and we'll see how that goes. I will show my workings in more depth there and how I correlate markets etc, and with peace and quiet unlike here. Message me on Telegram if you want in. Same name as here.
More analysis to follow, but for now lets just watch and see how long this gravy train can stay up in the mountains.
I'll have to use poetic language to get my point across as trolls are in the midst.
If you notice I'm suddenly not here I probably got reported again. I will try to keep it clean, but it is a challenge to not fully express at times with so many noisy children on my pages.
A big hello to Kyo, apparently the only adult in this crypto creche.
Anyhow nothing has changed for me. I've been DCA my short position in this frothy top. Btw that doesn't mean i'm a blind upside down hodler. I am using fibs, oscillators, etc, but I recognise the froth and react to that.
Once BTC gets rocking to the downside I'm going to open the group and we'll see how that goes. I will show my workings in more depth there and how I correlate markets etc, and with peace and quiet unlike here. Message me on Telegram if you want in. Same name as here.
More analysis to follow, but for now lets just watch and see how long this gravy train can stay up in the mountains.
Comment:
A quick thought - why do crypto hodlers assume that chartists have not considered metrics? Why do they think that S2F etc is only for bulls or that anyone that has viewed S2F would surely be bullish. Surely anyone can see the lines are going up at every halving and there is a steady north easterly path to moon and mars. Whats not to get? I don't want to upset the back patters club too much but I can type in web addresses and look at heat maps and whatnot too.
See you at 20K.
See you at 20K.
Comment:
Well we certainly took the scenic route but now 7 months later BTC low is just 5K from my target. Funny times.
And for all of you aggressive hodlers that were banging your drum all this time - it was as simple as seeing the weekly RSI hit 94 in January 2021, the second highest reading ever.
Do feel free to come say "hi" when BTC does hit 20K, shouldn't be too long now.
See you at 20K.
And for all of you aggressive hodlers that were banging your drum all this time - it was as simple as seeing the weekly RSI hit 94 in January 2021, the second highest reading ever.
Do feel free to come say "hi" when BTC does hit 20K, shouldn't be too long now.
See you at 20K.
Comment:
Well its nice to see that some of you are still here. One thing I find so impressive about hodlers is how they never lose. Hodlers here all ready with their dinner napkins patiently waiting for 20K now. They didnt get involved in any messy drawdowns and certainly weren't holding any alts enormous losses.
There is no perfection quite like that of a hodler. No TA btw 😄
There is no perfection quite like that of a hodler. No TA btw 😄
Comment:
Great comment from @shri30389 guys -
"See everyone at 20k, or potentially lower. S2F, Bitcoin Log Growth Curves, ... all used to lure bulls over the last decade under the support of the Fed propping up markets. Now the Fed's support has ended, and Bitcoin is left to its own. Wall Street firms milking every last fiat outta crypto to cover equities positions.
🙏"
"See everyone at 20k, or potentially lower. S2F, Bitcoin Log Growth Curves, ... all used to lure bulls over the last decade under the support of the Fed propping up markets. Now the Fed's support has ended, and Bitcoin is left to its own. Wall Street firms milking every last fiat outta crypto to cover equities positions.
🙏"
Comment:
We hit 20K today. Thanks for playing 😄.
Comment:
For any of you that want to visit my 20K celebration thread - here it is.
I'm taking a break from TradingView but you can find me every day in my Telegram Trading Group 🧐
Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
