BITCOIN - Lets TA Again 👍🏻

Right so here we are again - back at SOW resistance with price finding support on SOW in D and have wicked through to bounce from SOW in A. These important support / resistance lines never go away. The market movers never forget - and you can see how these lines are places of change from regression to impulse (and vice versa) as well as reversal points.

I have overlaid the S&P500 chart and it can be seen that both charts have been moving in tandem to an extent since BTC July impulse. But that correlation appears to be in decline here as SPX has surged to ATH but BTC has drifted sideways. This seems to be a clear indication that BTC top has passed. But also could BTC be a leading indicator to the S&P again? In December 2017 BTC topped40 days before SPX. Could this happen again? - perhaps...

Currently BTC is in a price contracting fractal somewhat similar to that of September. Will it be a continuation or a reversal? - Its very hard to tell. The previous contracting pattern could easily be seen as a descending triangle where lower highs lead to capitulation, but this is BTC which has its own plethora off possibility from such fractals. The simple answer is; I don't know but I will have my 'notebook' to hand.

Looking to the RSI there is some bullish divergence and it has touched the lower band so this also suggests a bounce may be on the cards. But that certainly doesn't suggest that BTC will hit a higher high. Take a look at the circled RSI area and see how price reacted after: It was a bounce then a dump. Could that happen again? It seems the most probable outcome, but not with a high degree of certainty, BTC is very slippery and there could be yet another change up and price crash - so I won't be going long here.

I have a theory that every crash structure will have a 0.618 bounce at some point. This is an inevitable automatic rally following a impulsive sell off, and BTC hasn't had such a bounce as yet. Previous crash said bounce occurred on 26 April from SOW in D. Now that bounce can continue up and fakeout higher, but it seems that 0.618 - 0.75 is the common area to not move passed the tipping point and I will be looking to short there again. If it bounces here then that area is 56 - 60K, but if BTC crashes then that area will be lower.

I've also added some fib circles to the chart - as you can see there is activity on most rings. This idea was taken from @snookerer, who has some very interesting charts and a similar BTC target as well as a small army of trolls. BTC is close to touching a ring here so could be some movement soon.

Whatever happens BTC will see 20K.

Not advice.

Comment:

For anyone not familiar with my output or what terms like SOW mean, here is my Wyckoff thread from March where I first projected BTC to hit 20K.