In the above graph, Green Channels show large volume for CME future contracts where Red Channels indicate small volume, the darker the colour, the more intense the volume. As you can see, the early Green Channels signal large volatility hence large price rises where low volume future contracts resulted in significant drops, now later along in March, Contract volumes steadily rose, in which its seems this increase in Fututes volume has taken the volatility out of the market.
MACD appears to be tightly entangled within the closing wedge, either this will limit future corrections or force an breakout with the amplitude of the wedge ranges from $6000 - $9000,
Latest futures trading data shows net-long traders are converting to shorts although currently longs have just over 2-1 lead, there is rumors longs are coming back into favor yet the trends show differently, as two-three weeks of reversal hint at perpetual shorts. Taking a view of traders and their attitudes, seems to exhibit pressure to force BTC prices low although changes in sentiment suggest a reversal of the BTC downtrend despite the fact traders remain net-long, this could change with current price action as low BTC price mean net-longs are lucrative.
We have declining open interest indicating the market is liquidating and could lead to current downward trend coming to an end. This is a contradiction as the overall Futures volume shows we can expect the existing trend to continue rather than reverse.
Here is CBOE views on it:
“The daily volume has mostly been concentrated in the near-month future and the open interest doesn’t change much from day to day,” said Gary Compton, a spokesperson for the CBOE, to Modern Consensus. “This could indicate that short term or day traders are concentrating on this contract. The farthest-dated contracts haven’t been trading too much"
"This shows that asset managers and institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies, and the like—have switched from being completely short bitcoin to long the Cryptocurrency, at least when ti comes to the futures contract on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)"
According to the COT report, “Asset manager/institutional” traders required to report to the regulator are now long a total of 220 contracts, worth a little above $1.7 million as of Monday. There are no new short contracts. Just two weeks before, they were short 110 contracts but long no contracts.
They are currently long 2,323 BTC contracts and short 953 contracts (for a net of 1,370 contracts). Two weeks ago, they were 2,531 contracts while short 815 (for a net of 1,716).
Using commodities index as a base for open interest volume, states Falling Price + Falling Contract Volume + Falling Open Interest represents a market that is Strengthening for an uptrend where the price decline is likely being caused by disgruntled net-long traders liquidating their positions on current price action. The market in this scenario is viewed as in an strong position because the downtrend will end once all the sellers have sold their positions.
Another option is Falling Price + Rising Open Interest + Falling Contract Volume is indicative of a weak market downtrend. During the course of the current trend, high and rising volume in Jan, Feb suggests trading activity supported the downward trend and that the trend continuation happened due to increased investors supporting overall downward price movement.
MACD appears to be tightly entangled within the closing wedge, either this will limit future corrections or force an breakout with the amplitude of the wedge ranges from $6000 - $9000,
Latest futures trading data shows net-long traders are converting to shorts although currently longs have just over 2-1 lead, there is rumors longs are coming back into favor yet the trends show differently, as two-three weeks of reversal hint at perpetual shorts. Taking a view of traders and their attitudes, seems to exhibit pressure to force BTC prices low although changes in sentiment suggest a reversal of the BTC downtrend despite the fact traders remain net-long, this could change with current price action as low BTC price mean net-longs are lucrative.
We have declining open interest indicating the market is liquidating and could lead to current downward trend coming to an end. This is a contradiction as the overall Futures volume shows we can expect the existing trend to continue rather than reverse.
Here is CBOE views on it:
“The daily volume has mostly been concentrated in the near-month future and the open interest doesn’t change much from day to day,” said Gary Compton, a spokesperson for the CBOE, to Modern Consensus. “This could indicate that short term or day traders are concentrating on this contract. The farthest-dated contracts haven’t been trading too much"
"This shows that asset managers and institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies, and the like—have switched from being completely short bitcoin to long the Cryptocurrency, at least when ti comes to the futures contract on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)"
According to the COT report, “Asset manager/institutional” traders required to report to the regulator are now long a total of 220 contracts, worth a little above $1.7 million as of Monday. There are no new short contracts. Just two weeks before, they were short 110 contracts but long no contracts.
They are currently long 2,323 BTC contracts and short 953 contracts (for a net of 1,370 contracts). Two weeks ago, they were 2,531 contracts while short 815 (for a net of 1,716).
Using commodities index as a base for open interest volume, states Falling Price + Falling Contract Volume + Falling Open Interest represents a market that is Strengthening for an uptrend where the price decline is likely being caused by disgruntled net-long traders liquidating their positions on current price action. The market in this scenario is viewed as in an strong position because the downtrend will end once all the sellers have sold their positions.
Another option is Falling Price + Rising Open Interest + Falling Contract Volume is indicative of a weak market downtrend. During the course of the current trend, high and rising volume in Jan, Feb suggests trading activity supported the downward trend and that the trend continuation happened due to increased investors supporting overall downward price movement.
Comment:
PS If expecting the same BTC price as when FOMO was ramped up in Dec, this wont be possible in the short, mid term (eg Middle of year), even with Wall st as there is no herd for them to profit off and those who were "coin burnt" will be wary before returning to the herd so we will be in for a long ride, in saying that greed will always reigns supreme,
www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacboesof.htm
www.cmegroup.com/tra...otes_volume_voi.html
github.com/tronproto.../graphs/contributors)
BTC is seeing some tough times , so I should write this:
***Education Purposes only***
www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacboesof.htm
www.cmegroup.com/tra...otes_volume_voi.html
github.com/tronproto.../graphs/contributors)
BTC is seeing some tough times , so I should write this:
***Education Purposes only***
Comment:
As you can see the final analysis seems to hold true due to increased shorts before the long weekend, CFTC will release update tomorrow with the weekend updates, will post then.
Very interesting times as BTC will decide "future" soon eg downward channel or hold the trend line out and up
stay tuned
CerealTrader
Very interesting times as BTC will decide "future" soon eg downward channel or hold the trend line out and up
stay tuned
CerealTrader
"Volume goes with the trend ,volume also precedes price", meaning that the loss of downside pressure in a downtrend will show up in the BTC volume figures before a reversal in trend on the bar chart is displayed. So looking for slow sustained drop in BTC volume, the 24HR BTC volume is currently at 5.1(Billion) where over the past month since Feb rise, 6-8 (Billion) was the standard. Realistically 24HR volume desires at least 7(Billion) to initiate trend reversal.
Net-longs are looking for is increased Contract Volume and Open Interest at points of strong support and resistance areas ($6900>$6000{double bottom}) What we have seen currently is a consolation and a period of below average Contract Volume and Open Interest, this scenario could lead to positive sentiment and price increase that would forecast the start of a new uptrend.
Notice from 12th march we have increase in future volumes which has stopped volatility and overall pulled the price slowly down, we can assume that this trend of increased future volume will continue hence increase pressure to continue the downward trend.
Being traders are primary using the Daily, Fibonacci and EMA for long term direction, this would leave me to believe that the Daily 50/200MA Death Cross needs to initialise to complete the slow uptrend (we must see pain before gain)
Catalyst to break above previous support levels doesn't seem to be there, knowing quite well the tech is still in test phases, the Catch22 presenting itself is, the exponentially larger Crypto grows the more contributors are needed to maintain (Github - Tron has 7 contributors, 3 contributors do 70% of the work - link below) Increased price = increased hacks, Alt coins announcements are being held off although possible break in clouds if $11500 is reached.
It is possible wall st will increase options increasing volume/interest. For one to rely on this could lead to error as stock-market may have there own issues (will stocks still affect BTC at this price level?) It seems $8000 has become the speculated price of BTC until another factor changes this (downtrend only showed resistance around this price, stepping stone if you will), a negative is that more support/resistance lies above then below.
Knowing profit flows towards the path least resistance taking above into account, trend seems to continue along upper level of green wedge with increased futures (short rising) adding downward pressure, Death Cross will be watched closely (analysed in detail "Bitcoin - Golden Cross/Death Cross/Every-Cross") Volume issues with current price action show future market is searching for bottom, should strengthen at $8000 as discussed, I believe we have one more drop (also believe it wont be the BTC $0 dollar price lately hearing about as unwanted stocks crash and burn, they don't edge down like Bitcoin)